How to calculate variance? - Beginning Poker Questions

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How to calculate variance?

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10-04-2018 , 04:09 PM

Saier

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 103

I would like to know if it's possible to calculate variance daily and which big of a sample is need it to do it.

I remember there is a site that looks into those deviations but my main game is 6 max cash games on regular tables, so I wonder if anything significant would come up from it.

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10-05-2018 , 02:37 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,754

What do you hope to achieve from this?

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10-05-2018 , 09:35 AM

Saier

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 103

I read it somewhere that since you can't rely on short-term results, a good point would be to estimate the effect variance had on those daily results. For example, if I had a downswing I could actually "see" how much was due to variance.

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10-05-2018 , 12:08 PM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

If https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/ is what you're referring to then it won't help you to see how much was due to variance.

If there is an x% chance of something happening, how would you know the cause when it actually happens? You can say something is likely or unlikely but that's it. The only useful way of using these variance estimations is to decide how aggressive you are in bankroll management according to he risk you're willing to take.

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10-05-2018 , 01:04 PM

VBAces

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,474

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saier

None of your results are due to variance. Variance does not cause results, results cause variance. Variance is just a measure of how swingy your results are - and you have variance in every single hand. Two people could have the same variance, with one a big winner and the other a big loser. The variance figure, itself, would not tell you anything.

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10-05-2018 , 01:53 PM

Foldelinio

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saier

You can learn it the muppet way and use online calculators and forum answers or you get a proper understanding of the basics. BRM is much too important to just deal with it on the side.

I'd suggest this book here. Not a fun read, but all the basics are covered:
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B001GAOYHS/...ng=UTF8&btkr=1

If you're confused what trading has to do with Poker, well...you can compare the outcome of a hand with the outcome of a trade/return of a portfolio over a certain time period.

This stuff is key if you want to get anywhere. I might suck at the game, but I never went broke

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