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How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam?

02-24-2015 , 02:07 PM
Can't remember how to calculate value:bluff ratio of jam like OTT, help pls :3

Is it like this?

EV = fold%(Pot) + Value%*(1-fold%)*(Pot*Value-equity) + (1-Value%)*(1-fold%)*(Pot*Bluffequity)

And set EV to 0?
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote
02-24-2015 , 03:16 PM
Everything in poker is risk/risk+reward, and EV should = EV of checking (they want to be indifferent and often other options have a +ve EV).
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote
02-24-2015 , 03:48 PM
Not sure what you mean. If you mean your EV including fold equity, it's like this:

EV = F($Pot)+C(%W*$W)+C(%L+$L)

F is estimate of how often villain folds
C is estimate of how often villain calls

If it helps, I made a calculator excel sheet for this here:

http://evthealien.com/poker-ev-calculator-in-excel/


Last edited by evthealien; 02-24-2015 at 03:55 PM.
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote
02-24-2015 , 07:23 PM
If you're shoving a perfectly polarized nuts/air range, then the ratio of value:bluffs is the same as whatever pot-odds you're laying for a caller, but it's gonna get really complicated when some of your bluffs have equity, because if your hand has equity against a calling range, then your bluffs have some "value" component. e.g. if you have 16% equity with an OESD, those combos are 16% value and 84% air. Note also that some of your nutted hands can also lose (top set rarely has 100% equity, for example).

Working backwards from an arbitrary bet-size might help.

If you overbet jammed 1.5*pot on the turn, the pot odds you're setting on a call are 2.5:1.5 or 5:3. A decent approximation of a balanced range to make the play with would be 5 value combos for each 3 bluffing combos. i.e. 62.5% of your range should be nutted. If your nutted hands cannot be outdrawn, then you could include a few more semi-bluffs that have equity.
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote
02-25-2015 , 09:27 AM
As long as your value hands are +ev when called, I don't think it matters if they can be outdrawn. It's still a value bet even if you don't have 100% equity.

This is how I do it, but it's not perfect:

(1 - equity of bluffs vs threshold bluffcatcher) = %miss

bet/(pot+bet) = alpha

alpha/%miss = alphie

(alphie*shove combos) = bluffing combos

-----

So if I decide that my bluffing range has 33% equity vs my opponent's threshold bluffcatcher, then in order to make that threshold bluffcatcher indifferent to calling or folding, I do the math:

1 - .33 = 0.67

let pot = 1 before I bet

let bet = 1

after I bet, the pot is 2.

bet/(pot+bet) = .33

0.33/0.67 = ~0.4925 non static game adjusted bluffing frequency.

When (value combos + bluffing combos)(0.4925) = bluffing combos, the opponent's threshold bluffcatcher will be indifferent.

From there, it's a matter of making sure that value shoves are +ev, and making sure that the bluffing combos on each side of the equation are equal, or really close.

----

In game, I use a shortcut by estimating a % increase of static alpha and making an educated guess as to how much I should be bluffing based on previous calcuations. The more equity my bluffing range has against the opponent's threshold bluffcatcher, the more I bluff.

The result is a very minimal % increase on static boards, and a relatively high % increase on more dynamic boards:

I raise 3x on the button, small blind 3 bets to 10 big blinds, I call.

1) A72r small blind bets 20 big blinds and I shove my last 80 big blinds for ~potsized raise. Here, I'm only bluffing ~35% of the time because my bluffs don't have much equity.

2) K89 same action, but here my bluffs have more equity because of the flush draws and straight draws, so I can bluff a lot more, probably somewhere between 45-50% of the time.

----

It's not perfect though. That's just how I do it.
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote
02-25-2015 , 10:25 AM
THANKS
How to calculate bluff to value ratio of jam? Quote

      
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