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Old 06-30-2008, 02:05 PM   #1
IAcedPoker
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Smile Help with Odds

Please and thank yoU !

Hand:

AhQh

flop: Kh Jh 2c

Unseen cards 47

3 Aces
9 hearts
3 tens <--- because one is 10h right?

15 X 4 = 60

60 % of hitting straight or flush

So ok to call bets < 1.2 X of pot size?


Scenario
Turn 6s

15 x 2 = 30

30%
Ok to call bets < 30% of pot?



Please help with this , Am i right or wrong ? why ?
Thank you

Last edited by IAcedPoker; 06-30-2008 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 06-30-2008, 02:29 PM   #2
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
Please and thank yoU !

Hand:

AhQh

flop: Kh Jh 2c

Unseen cards 47

3 Aces
9 hearts
3 tens <--- because one is 10h right?

15 X 4 = 60

60 % of hitting straight or flush

So ok to call bets < 1.2 X of pot size?


Scenario
Turn 6s

15 x 2 = 30

30%
Ok to call bets < 30% of pot?



Please help with this , Am i right or wrong ? why ?
Thank you
that value is an approximation. But disregarding absolute percentages and sticking to the theory of pot-odds.

The outs you are counting is flush, straight, and Top Pair. In reality, I highly doubt an ace will help you in these situations. They might be, but I think the reverse implied odds on that ace would own you!

ASSUMING THE ACES ARE OUTS ( you put him on a pair of duces or something.)

Then you have 15 outs. 15 outs is enough to call ANY amount if you KNOW you can see two (turn and river) cards for that price. However, this is usually not the case. What you are worried about with strictly pot-odds are (no implied odds) is the money-odds to see the next card, and the odds your hand will improve to win.

In this situation. you have (approximately) 30% to improve on the next card. 30% is 3 to 7, or nearly 2 to 1 odds.

So it's okay (strictly by pot-odds) to call nearly a pot-sized bet on each street. Pot sized bets are 2-1 odds.
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Old 06-30-2008, 02:33 PM   #3
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Re: Help with Odds

You should put as many chips in the pot as you can as long as you're >50% so instead of calling, you should raise. (imo, I'm sure some people think you should call and re-eval the turn)

Also, you're forgetting to factor in implied odds.
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Old 06-30-2008, 02:46 PM   #4
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bacon View Post
that value is an approximation. But disregarding absolute percentages and sticking to the theory of pot-odds.

The outs you are counting is flush, straight, and Top Pair. In reality, I highly doubt an ace will help you in these situations. They might be, but I think the reverse implied odds on that ace would own you!

ASSUMING THE ACES ARE OUTS ( you put him on a pair of duces or something.)

Then you have 15 outs. 15 outs is enough to call ANY amount if you KNOW you can see two (turn and river) cards for that price. However, this is usually not the case. What you are worried about with strictly pot-odds are (no implied odds) is the money-odds to see the next card, and the odds your hand will improve to win.

In this situation. you have (approximately) 30% to improve on the next card. 30% is 3 to 7, or nearly 2 to 1 odds.

So it's okay (strictly by pot-odds) to call nearly a pot-sized bet on each street. Pot sized bets are 2-1 odds.

So i should NOT count on the ace incase He would have AK or AA

I should only count on the nuts?

I'm confused about the money odds

IS this good Money ODDS ?


Hand:

AhQh

flop: Kh Jh 2c

Unseen cards 47


9 hearts
3 tens <--- because one is 10h right?

12 X 4 = 48 %

48 % of hitting straight or flush

So ok to call bets < 50 % X of pot size?

To see Card on Turn

And bets < 25 % to see card on river ?



Thank you !
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Old 06-30-2008, 03:05 PM   #5
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Re: Help with Odds

You're still disregarding an important factor, implied odds. If you catch your flush card, how much more are you going to get paid? What's left in the stacks at that point?
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Old 06-30-2008, 03:51 PM   #6
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Re: Help with Odds

BLINDS 100/200

Stacks:

ME 20k


HIM 60k


PoT 10k


Implied odds suck for me cuz i have 20k and i can't take his full 60k
?

how does this work

This is not real im just trying to make sure i know this
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Old 06-30-2008, 04:15 PM   #7
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Re: Help with Odds

how do i work implied odds into pot odds ?
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Old 06-30-2008, 04:53 PM   #8
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Re: Help with Odds

Playing that deep, the implied odds are huge. If you hit your flush, how much do you think he is going to pay you off in the end?

It's pretty villain dependent on how much they'll pay you off or won't pay you off etc.

In this example, how much did he bet into the pot?
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Old 06-30-2008, 05:14 PM   #9
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
how do i work implied odds into pot odds ?
Add to what the pot is currently offering how much more you reasonably expect villain to put into the pot by the river. If you think villain will drop another $6000 (or whatever) into this pot on the river even if you do make your hand, then your total winnings will be what's in the pot now + $6000.

Calculating implied odds is murky because you can't always count on villain dropping any more chips in the hand. That's why the most conservative estimates always rely strictly what's in the pot now to determine the odds you should continue in the hand.

To cite an extreme example to illustrate the point, suppose villain always pushed all in on the river. In that case, to calculate implied odds you could just look at his stack and add it to what's in the pot. But since you can't accurately predict what villain is going to drop, it's more of an estimate. It's probably better to err on the side of caution since if you always try to rely on implied odds you'll find yourself making many, many loose calls that you should avoid.
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Old 06-30-2008, 05:21 PM   #10
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Re: Help with Odds

its not real im just trying to find out how this works , im like 80/20 about it


lets say he bet 15k into pot ?


is there anyway the implied odds would work against me ?
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Old 06-30-2008, 06:04 PM   #11
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
its not real im just trying to find out how this works , im like 80/20 about it


lets say he bet 15k into pot ?


is there anyway the implied odds would work against me ?
If he already bet $15k into the pot, then that money is already in the pot and is not part of implied odds. If you reasonably predict that he'll put another $15k into the pot, then that extra $15k that you'll get if you win is considered the "implied" part of your odds.

In the example you give, the implied odds won't work against you. There's a situation called "reverse implied odds" that you don't need to think about in the example you're giving.
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Old 06-30-2008, 07:39 PM   #12
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Re: Help with Odds

So I just use implied odds so see how much i think villian will bet on turn/river to make the most out of my hand ?
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Old 06-30-2008, 08:46 PM   #13
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
So I just use implied odds so see how much i think villian will bet on turn/river to make the most out of my hand ?
You use implied odds to assess, as accurately as possible, whether it's +EV to continue to draw. There are many situations where if you hit an out, you'll win what is currently in the pot plus an additional amount from your opponent. If you were to consistently ignore those times when your opponent will contribute more chips to the pot, you'll miss out on times when it will be profitable to continue to draw.

Say you have a gutshot on the turn and the pot is offering you 8:1. Since the odds of hitting your draw are ~10:1, drawing is -EV if your opponent contributes nothing else to the pot. But if you can reasonably expect your opponent to bet more chips on the river/call your bet or raise, then your turn play might go from a fold to a call. That's because you anticipate being paid off by more than just what's currently in the pot.
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Old 06-30-2008, 08:48 PM   #14
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
So i should NOT count on the ace incase He would have AK or AA
Not just AK or AA, you're also worried about AJ and QT
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:00 AM   #15
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoonOrb View Post
You use implied odds to assess, as accurately as possible, whether it's +EV to continue to draw. There are many situations where if you hit an out, you'll win what is currently in the pot plus an additional amount from your opponent. If you were to consistently ignore those times when your opponent will contribute more chips to the pot, you'll miss out on times when it will be profitable to continue to draw.

Say you have a gutshot on the turn and the pot is offering you 8:1. Since the odds of hitting your draw are ~10:1, drawing is -EV if your opponent contributes nothing else to the pot. But if you can reasonably expect your opponent to bet more chips on the river/call your bet or raise, then your turn play might go from a fold to a call. That's because you anticipate being paid off by more than just what's currently in the pot.

ok i got it ! thanks bro !

thanks to all !
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Old 07-01-2008, 12:24 PM   #16
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
Please and thank yoU !

Hand:

AhQh

flop: Kh Jh 2c

Unseen cards 47

3 Aces
9 hearts
3 tens <--- because one is 10h right?

15 X 4 = 60

60 % of hitting straight or flush

So ok to call bets < 1.2 X of pot size?


Scenario
Turn 6s

15 x 2 = 30

30%
Ok to call bets < 30% of pot?



Please help with this , Am i right or wrong ? why ?
Thank you

not to nit pick, but your approximation is slightly off. when there are an excess of 8 outs you need to make a modification to your calulations using this rule:

with two cards to come , multiply the number of outs by four, then subtact the number of outs in excess of 8 to get your winning percentage.

so 15*4-(15-8)=53%

also use pokerstove to run equity calucaltions vs a range of holdings villian might have.

ex. AQ on KJ2 board vs villaims range of 99+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo = 53% equity in hand.

or lets say you out him on a set if Jacks.
so AQ vs JJ =33% equity in hand.
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Old 07-01-2008, 12:40 PM   #17
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by bacanef2007 View Post
not to nit pick, but your approximation is slightly off. when there are an excess of 8 outs you need to make a modification to your calulations using this rule:

with two cards to come , multiply the number of outs by four, then subtact the number of outs in excess of 8 to get your winning percentage.

so 15*4-(15-8)=53%

also use pokerstove to run equity calucaltions vs a range of holdings villian might have.

ex. AQ on KJ2 board vs villaims range of 99+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo = 53% equity in hand.

or lets say you out him on a set if Jacks.
so AQ vs JJ =33% equity in hand.

does that rule only apply to 8 outs ?

So if i had 10 outs then it would be 15 x4 - (15-10) ? so 60 -5 = 55 % ?

or is it just
<8 no rule
>8 rule of -8


never heard it before thanks for the heads up !
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Old 07-01-2008, 01:19 PM   #18
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Re: Help with Odds

yes <8 just multiple by 4 if two cards to come. if > 8 then you need to subtract 8 from the number in excess of that number.

so if 9 outs, 4*9-(9-8)
if 20 outs, 4*20-(20-8) and so on.
if 4 outs, then its just 4*4

and thats only if you are sure you will see both cards without additional betting. i.e. both are all in. other wise you need to use the rule of 2, if there will be additional betting. and i guess thats where implied odds come in.
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Old 07-01-2008, 01:41 PM   #19
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by bacanef2007 View Post
yes <8 just multiple by 4 if two cards to come. if > 8 then you need to subtract 8 from the number in excess of that number.

so if 9 outs, 4*9-(9-8)
if 20 outs, 4*20-(20-8) and so on.
if 4 outs, then its just 4*4

and thats only if you are sure you will see both cards without additional betting. i.e. both are all in. other wise you need to use the rule of 2, if there will be additional betting. and i guess thats where implied odds come in.


The rule of 2 is for the river ?

or is it another rule i have not heard about ?
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Old 07-01-2008, 04:51 PM   #20
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoonOrb View Post
If he already bet $15k into the pot, then that money is already in the pot and is not part of implied odds. If you reasonably predict that he'll put another $15k into the pot, then that extra $15k that you'll get if you win is considered the "implied" part of your odds.

In the example you give, the implied odds won't work against you. There's a situation called "reverse implied odds" that you don't need to think about in the example you're giving.

Sorry for the thread hijack, but can you explain the reverse implied odds?
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Old 07-01-2008, 05:26 PM   #21
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Re: Help with Odds

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Sorry for the thread hijack, but can you explain the reverse implied odds?
Sure. It's a situation where:

1. You may have the best hand but aren't sure
2. Your hand is marginal but stands little chance of improving
3. Your opponent is betting into you
4. Your opponent will continue betting if he's ahead but will stop betting if he's behind

The situation in this case is that if you are ahead, you stand to gain little more, but if you're behind, you'll have to pay even more bets to see the river. This is because if you're ahead (ie, you can beat a bluff and your opponent is bluffing), once he sees that you're staying in the hand, he's giving up and is committing nothing else to the pot. Therefore, you stand to win only what is in the pot now.

However, if you're behind, you stand to lose more than what you're committing right now.

Say you're holding KK and the flop comes T76 monochrome, none matching your kings. You bet the flop and your opponent raises you. If you come back over the top he'll fold if he's got a weak hand, but he'll reraise or call if he has a flush or straight and he'll continue to bet into you with his strong hand.

The basic idea is that "reverse implied odds" takes into account the fact that you might be losing a lot more bets in later rounds. "Implied odds" takes into account the opposite situation--that you could win a lot more bets in later rounds.

The way it's explained in TOP is that in situations where you may have reverse implied odds, you wish you were all-in. This way you don't have to worry about losing money on later streets to get to a showdown when you're way behind. In situations with implied odds, you hate to be all-in because you're hoping to win even more money from your opponent later in the hand.
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Old 07-01-2008, 05:46 PM   #22
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by MoonOrb View Post
Sure. It's a situation where:

1. You may have the best hand but aren't sure
2. Your hand is marginal but stands little chance of improving
3. Your opponent is betting into you
4. Your opponent will continue betting if he's ahead but will stop betting if he's behind

The situation in this case is that if you are ahead, you stand to gain little more, but if you're behind, you'll have to pay even more bets to see the river. This is because if you're ahead (ie, you can beat a bluff and your opponent is bluffing), once he sees that you're staying in the hand, he's giving up and is committing nothing else to the pot. Therefore, you stand to win only what is in the pot now.

However, if you're behind, you stand to lose more than what you're committing right now.

Say you're holding KK and the flop comes T76 monochrome, none matching your kings. You bet the flop and your opponent raises you. If you come back over the top he'll fold if he's got a weak hand, but he'll reraise or call if he has a flush or straight and he'll continue to bet into you with his strong hand.

The basic idea is that "reverse implied odds" takes into account the fact that you might be losing a lot more bets in later rounds. "Implied odds" takes into account the opposite situation--that you could win a lot more bets in later rounds.

The way it's explained in TOP is that in situations where you may have reverse implied odds, you wish you were all-in. This way you don't have to worry about losing money on later streets to get to a showdown when you're way behind. In situations with implied odds, you hate to be all-in because you're hoping to win even more money from your opponent later in the hand.

I get it. Thanks for the info!
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Old 07-01-2008, 07:09 PM   #23
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
The rule of 2 is for the river ?

or is it another rule i have not heard about ?
the rule of two is used to determine your odds if you want to see the next card. that card could be the turn card or the river card.
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Old 07-03-2008, 11:05 AM   #24
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Re: Help with Odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by bacanef2007 View Post
the rule of two is used to determine your odds if you want to see the next card. that card could be the turn card or the river card.


what ? i thought it was x4 for turn and 2x river
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Old 07-03-2008, 01:32 PM   #25
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Re: Help with Odds

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Originally Posted by IAcedPoker View Post
what ? i thought it was x4 for turn and 2x river
I think this is the key point that several previous posters are trying to make IAced.

Yes it's rule of 4 for the flop and rule of 2 for turn. But the rule of 4 assumes that you will see BOTH the turn AND the river. If you are going all-in then the rule of 4 is a good rule.

But if you aren't going all-in then you're going to face another round of betting after the turn. The crucial point is that if you still have money behind after the flop bet then the rule of 4 doesn't apply anymore, because you are likely going to have put even more money on the turn.

Consider you have 4 cards to a flush on the flop and the villian makes a pot size bet. You are getting 2:1 pot odds, should you call? If you use rule of 4 then you have a 32% chance of winning, which is close enough for a lot of us to call Now the turn comes up dead and the villian again makes a pot size bet. Now by rule of 2 you only have an 18% chance of winning. You no longer have odds and should fold.

So in hindsight we see that we should have forseen the villian's pot base on the turn WHILE STILL AT THE FLOP.

This is why everyone is saying use the rule of 2 at the flop. Because with the flop bet you are only paying to see the next card, not the next two cards.

And again, if you are looking at going all in on the flop, then apply the rule of 4.

Hope this helps.
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