heads-UP in a sit and go - Beginning Poker Questions

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heads-UP in a sit and go

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12-08-2017 , 08:28 PM

tompoker

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 162

hey i am playing some micro single table sng's lately,,,
now i am finishing first 36 and second 44 times i did not keep track of my chipstack when i end up in the heads up.
if there are 3000 chips in total and i survive the bubble with 1000 chips do i only win the heads up 33% of times or is that untrue?

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12-08-2017 , 09:02 PM

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,224

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Originally Posted by tompoker

if there are 3000 chips in total and i survive the bubble with 1000 chips do i only win the heads up 33% of times or is that untrue?

I can not believe this is a mathematical fact.

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12-09-2017 , 01:33 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Other things being equal (e.g. your opponent has the same skill level), then if you have a third of the chips heads up, then you can expect to win a third of the time.

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12-10-2017 , 11:10 AM

tompoker

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 162

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

Other things being equal (e.g. your opponent has the same skill level), then if you have a third of the chips heads up, then you can expect to win a third of the time.

hmm ok, so it has nothing to do with the chance of having 750 vs 2250 chips and winning a flip twice?

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12-10-2017 , 04:49 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by tompoker

hmm ok, so it has nothing to do with the chance of having 750 vs 2250 chips and winning a flip twice?

It has as much relevance as two even stacks having one flip and ending it right there.
It's just probability. If you have 50% of the chips, you can expect to win 50% of the time. If you have 25% of the chips and you take a flip, you have 50% chance of going busto, and 50% chance of equalizing the stacks, where you'll be in a 50:50 stack scenario. If your flip means your overall winning probability (and proportion of the chips in play) will be 0% or 50% after the first hand, then you had 25% to start with.

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12-13-2017 , 02:00 PM

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,224

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

Other things being equal (e.g. your opponent has the same skill level).....

But we learned today that the opponents are NOT equal.

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Originally Posted by tompoker

as a note, as a winning cashgame player i think the skill level of the people i play against is close as it gets to a beginner with a chart of poker's handstrength taped on his monitor. no disrespect intended but probally half of my villains don't know a deck has 52 cards and are just gambling

Does THAT change the math?

EDIT: ....and I post this today actually to point out the possibility of having "equal" opponents is probably remote. The answer to the original question should include a large percentage of the answer being related to opponent skill...yes?

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