1//2 NL cash game
Hero 66 mp
fold to you you make it 10 to go Co calls all others fold.
Effective stack size 140
Flop 6 7 8
You cbet 20 into a pot of 23 villian make its 40 and has 90 behind.
Do You jam here or is a jam only going to get called by better by villain in position ?

1) Opponent thoughts ... Flush draw out there? Are you familiar with CO calling range? Is it as wide as 9To/9Ts as well as 77/88? Does it include 78/89? Would your opponent min-raise gii with 89?

Typically a min-raise in a 1/2 game is very nutty, but it could also be 99-QQ from some opponent's as well. What does your opponent put you on? You are supposed to have a somewhat tighter range but you are betting anyway ... does your opponent even think this way?

2) You/Hero ... Are you folding to 'any' Turn cards? If not, then get it in now so you don't talk yourself out of it later.

For the most part this is just one of those live spots where you just put it in and see which side you end up on. There are times when you may be able to get a Player to fold and avoid a suck-out as well ... That'll never happen if you let them see a Turn card that improves them 'for free' on their betting terms.

A) If you're crushed by another set ... cooler
B) If you're behind a straight, you are pretty close to =EV here on the Flop to fill up.

The kicker here is you really need to know what your opponent is thinking about you in order to judge the idea that you 'only' get called by better. If you opponent is sitting there with an 'over-valued' two pair because you must have AA-TT here then you are going to get called by a big enough range that 'thinks' it's better when ultimately it's too wide to 'always' be better. GL

You flop a set with an SPR of 6.5

If stacking off on almost any flop isn’t +EV under those circumstances, we have to go back to the drawing board and probably can’t raise preflop in the future.

I did stack off but how is it 6.5 ?
was also thinking i had 11 outs the 10 to a house and runner runner flush counting as 1 more out.

How is it not 6.5? There’s $20 in the pot (+blinds, minus rake) and $130 behind.

Not sure on the other stacks involved, but your $10 PF bet was 'only' getting 14 to 1 implied odds with only one caller. Which by some standards might be too low for 66.

I don't think OP is doubting that he 'should' get all the chips into the pot, it's 'how' he should get the chips in the middle, being now or wait for a peel. Should OP attempt to keep a larger range of hands involved by calling as opposed to only the stronger range of hands that will call off a shove?

We've shown your shove is =EV even when only hands you're behind call, so there's no question that chips should go in. Your 'answer' comes down to an opinion of your opponent's range and tendencies.

IMO if you are =EV when behind then I want the chips in sooner than later so you can maximize any additional chips when you are ahead. You may lose a caller on the Turn and thus win less (only the 20 min raise) should your opponent fold on Flop or Turn.

Poker math can make your head spin a bit. What may be a 'no brainer' spot to some can appear to be 'break even' very shortly after. GL

Can you (or anyone else) please explain how this is the case?

The 7 outs r str8 forward. Then the turn card can pair on the River, so how many out could that be? And I guess 1 out for the backdoor flush.

Thanks

I guess I’ll expand a bit....about 2:1 (about 33%) to fill up by river

Pot $83+90-$5 = $168

So, $90 to win $168...not quite $180.

Is this correct?

Thanks I am about pretty sure I am getting what you are saying and agreeing. Yes I was going to get it in. It was just a question of how and when.
Personally in this spot IMO Turn cards of 5, 9 and 10 were ALL dangerous
and to a lesser extent J for anyone who wanted to smooth call JJ pre flop.
I played it like I didnt want to give villain a cheap look at 14 different potentially dangerous cards.
I also had 11 outs vs a flopped straight.
YOU Do agree that my back door flush could be counted as 1 more out to add to my 10 outs to a full house yes ?

As for whoever said I was ONLY getting 14 to 1 to set mine I will take that EVERY Time since I am only 12 to 1 to hit it. Yes I get it that this assumes Villian gets their whole stack in.

23(PF) + 80(Flop) + 90(behind) = 193 'to win' with shove/call of 90. Most Players don't remove rake when calculating, leave that for the 3rd decimal online guys.

I don't typically cut hairs with backdoor stuff either ... but there's also runner-runner chop too (2%)!! I don't know the suits, but why would you bother 'counting' on a 6-high flush winning somehow?

Set is 34.4% against 9T, 69% against 89 or similar

11 outs - 7 on the Turn ... 10 on the River. That extra out may be the back doors your referencing. Again, please don't sit around a 1/2 live table and make decisions based on (or even take the time to figure out) an additional back door scenarios that aren't nutted hands if you hit them.

Sets are 8 to 1 to hit, not 12 ... The premise being that the lower the set the more likely it can be sucked out on somehow so you need higher implied odds. Players usually have 2-3 ranges for their set mining. The highest I've encountered is a guy who said he wanted no less than 22 to 1 for 66-22 set mines. GL

This also assumes that you win every time you hit your set. There are going to be times when you get coolered when you hit the set, and then as you say, there'll also be a lot of times the opponent folds. So I'd be looking for odds of over 15/1, which is why set mining is better in multiway pots IMO.

I'm still a beginner though, so could be wrong. I'm sure one of the more experienced players will correct me if I am!

Thank you, I read that wrong...

Your posts have been very helpful for me...glad OP posted this.

@answer Yes 8 to 1 when I was thinking 12% likely which is the same thing.