Hand story:
(Unibet does not allow for copying hand histories as far as I know, so I just make it a story from what I remember. If I forgot anything relevant, I probably should have paid attention more to that, but it was like a week ago so wouldn't be that bad. Curious as to how to get value from a monster.
I tried to state a lot of my reasoning for this hand, so all feedback is welcome. I think I leave tons of value at the table here.
750 player tournament, .02 c bounty, fast structure and 9 people get paid. We are like 1/3 of the players, we are around 20 BB, I think no antes yet or it was the first level.
We are the BB with KQo, 4 people call, SB limps, we check. We cover 2/5 people, are covered by 3, of which 1 has roughly the same stack as us. So 6 BB in the pot and I roughly have 3 times as much behind, everyone has at least twice the pot.
I check because I want to see a flop, I think only hands with a lot of equity against us will call a bet and since there are so many callers it would have to be a shove or we would put at least a big part of our stack in the middle.
Flop KQQ, two-tone. SB checks. So I have the nuts (making the reasonable assumption no one limped with KK, even when it is more probable someone has KK I still don't care, since we are shallow I treat the virtual nuts as the nuts) and the top of my range here. So I decide to check, since my range is weak. It checks through.
Turn blank, SB checks.
What are my options here?
If I check, I suspect it will be checked through, but I can hope a flush card comes and I can get value from a flush, or if someone in late position has the case Q, maybe they bet and I can check-raise a small bet or call an all-in.
If I push and somebody has a Q with a decent kicker or a nut flush, straight flush or straight draw (I assume no one would call with a low pocket pair and there is no AA), they might call.
I think they should call certainly with hands like Ajs, A10s, J10s (in the suit of the board) and the case Q and of course with the pocket blanks which make a mall boat.
Should they call with strong kings? I think yes, but when is it better for them to call? They already block the boats with having a king, but would you be more happy with say a J in the suit of the board, or another jack (since the good suit blocks the flush draws and combined draws). They always block the straight draws.
I feel they should call all their strong kings (say 10+ kicker) anyway since they are excellent bluffcatchers and you have to accumulate chips in these kind of tournaments. A small stack can double up and a big stack has a chance to win my 2 cents and have a decent shot to reach the final table. In a tournament with a less crazy payout structure I would probably be a bit more conservative but I don't know if I would have to fold all my kings?
If I bet small, someone can reraise me all-in, which is good now we have the nuts but if I want to semi-bluff that sucks because I will be marginally committed anyway, and I can make mistakes which are probably more expensive than not using the ideal bet-size. If anyone traps me I will be screwed. And it reeks like a value-bet since I am EP, so only people with strong draws and a Q will call me, I think.
So at the moment I think it is best to jam, although it is a 3x pot overbet. I would do the same with smaller boats and any Q for value/protection of draws. So I have 15 boats and 72 queens, i.e. 87 value combinations.
I win 4x pot if I get one caller and win, but if I lose I lose 3x pot. I assume my boats all have 100% equity against callers and my queens around 60% average but these are made up numbers, the 100% is of course slightly wrong and the 60% is more an intuition guess.
So I have around 66*4 = approx 250 pot as the sum of all my value combo's when called.
I don't want to bluff with kings.
I have a bigger chance to get called when I am semi-bluffing and when I am called I am either a 0% dog when they have a boat, 40% if they call with draws which are on average slightly stronger than mine (so 4/5 of my draw range), 33% when they have a king and again 40% when I have a combined draw which contains an ace (most of them) and they have KK.
So I have 3*(15 + 12/25 x + 32*0.62)x - 4*(32*0.38 + 8/25 x) x
where x is my amount of semi-bluffs. I want this to equal 250. The odds are greater that I don't get called when I have a good hand, but in that case I already get 1 pot so I think it is okay to have them both equal the same amount (250 pot)?
But I find that x = 4.4. I would never have suspected it would be this small! So I should only have 4 semi-bluffs here? Then I pick A10s, AJs, J10s and the suited ace which blocks the blank boat. What is a good hand to bet sometimes (to account for the .4)? All other J10s 1/40th of the time?
Is my reasoning anywhere near decent?