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Freeroll, flopped a monster Freeroll, flopped a monster

08-23-2017 , 06:59 AM
Hand story:
(Unibet does not allow for copying hand histories as far as I know, so I just make it a story from what I remember. If I forgot anything relevant, I probably should have paid attention more to that, but it was like a week ago so wouldn't be that bad. Curious as to how to get value from a monster.

I tried to state a lot of my reasoning for this hand, so all feedback is welcome. I think I leave tons of value at the table here.

750 player tournament, .02 c bounty, fast structure and 9 people get paid. We are like 1/3 of the players, we are around 20 BB, I think no antes yet or it was the first level.

We are the BB with KQo, 4 people call, SB limps, we check. We cover 2/5 people, are covered by 3, of which 1 has roughly the same stack as us. So 6 BB in the pot and I roughly have 3 times as much behind, everyone has at least twice the pot.

I check because I want to see a flop, I think only hands with a lot of equity against us will call a bet and since there are so many callers it would have to be a shove or we would put at least a big part of our stack in the middle.

Flop KQQ, two-tone. SB checks. So I have the nuts (making the reasonable assumption no one limped with KK, even when it is more probable someone has KK I still don't care, since we are shallow I treat the virtual nuts as the nuts) and the top of my range here. So I decide to check, since my range is weak. It checks through.

Turn blank, SB checks.

What are my options here?
If I check, I suspect it will be checked through, but I can hope a flush card comes and I can get value from a flush, or if someone in late position has the case Q, maybe they bet and I can check-raise a small bet or call an all-in.

If I push and somebody has a Q with a decent kicker or a nut flush, straight flush or straight draw (I assume no one would call with a low pocket pair and there is no AA), they might call.
I think they should call certainly with hands like Ajs, A10s, J10s (in the suit of the board) and the case Q and of course with the pocket blanks which make a mall boat.
Should they call with strong kings? I think yes, but when is it better for them to call? They already block the boats with having a king, but would you be more happy with say a J in the suit of the board, or another jack (since the good suit blocks the flush draws and combined draws). They always block the straight draws.
I feel they should call all their strong kings (say 10+ kicker) anyway since they are excellent bluffcatchers and you have to accumulate chips in these kind of tournaments. A small stack can double up and a big stack has a chance to win my 2 cents and have a decent shot to reach the final table. In a tournament with a less crazy payout structure I would probably be a bit more conservative but I don't know if I would have to fold all my kings?

If I bet small, someone can reraise me all-in, which is good now we have the nuts but if I want to semi-bluff that sucks because I will be marginally committed anyway, and I can make mistakes which are probably more expensive than not using the ideal bet-size. If anyone traps me I will be screwed. And it reeks like a value-bet since I am EP, so only people with strong draws and a Q will call me, I think.

So at the moment I think it is best to jam, although it is a 3x pot overbet. I would do the same with smaller boats and any Q for value/protection of draws. So I have 15 boats and 72 queens, i.e. 87 value combinations.

I win 4x pot if I get one caller and win, but if I lose I lose 3x pot. I assume my boats all have 100% equity against callers and my queens around 60% average but these are made up numbers, the 100% is of course slightly wrong and the 60% is more an intuition guess.

So I have around 66*4 = approx 250 pot as the sum of all my value combo's when called.

I don't want to bluff with kings.

I have a bigger chance to get called when I am semi-bluffing and when I am called I am either a 0% dog when they have a boat, 40% if they call with draws which are on average slightly stronger than mine (so 4/5 of my draw range), 33% when they have a king and again 40% when I have a combined draw which contains an ace (most of them) and they have KK.

So I have 3*(15 + 12/25 x + 32*0.62)x - 4*(32*0.38 + 8/25 x) x

where x is my amount of semi-bluffs. I want this to equal 250. The odds are greater that I don't get called when I have a good hand, but in that case I already get 1 pot so I think it is okay to have them both equal the same amount (250 pot)?

But I find that x = 4.4. I would never have suspected it would be this small! So I should only have 4 semi-bluffs here? Then I pick A10s, AJs, J10s and the suited ace which blocks the blank boat. What is a good hand to bet sometimes (to account for the .4)? All other J10s 1/40th of the time?

Is my reasoning anywhere near decent?

Spoiler:
I bet small x
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 08:35 AM
It's a freaking freeroll. You're gonna get called by everyone.

Raise pot pre. Bet flop. Cackle when K7o shoves.

This by the way is also true when it's real money. KQo is a strong hand and betting the pot from the BB shows even stronger.
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 08:53 AM
Didn't read past title, bet and raise until you can't anymore
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 09:02 AM
bet pot pre? you mean, raise to 8bb with our 20bb stack? just shove preflop
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 10:34 AM
You are astronomically overestimating the ranges of your opponents and their willingness to lay down any sort of draw or hand they think is pretty.

If you are actually trying to win rather than engage in some theoretical GTO type exercise, it is (until you get pretty far up the buy-in food chain) essential to make radical range adjustments to exploit the massive errors your opponents are making. In freeroll/play money environments, this means having ranges that are weighted virtually 100% towards value, because your opponents would rather die in a fire than surrender any shred of equity.

This gets slightly less true the deeper you go in these things, because the players get a little more invested and usually passive, but that isn't an issue until around the bubble.

One piece of specific advice when dealing with play money / freeroll type villains: Waiting for someone to hit a draw so they pay you off is madness. Any draw they think might possibly be good is calling roughly the same amounts/frequeincy as the completed draw would, which is nearly all bets at all times. So get it in while they still have hope.
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 12:11 PM
Okay thanks a lot all! I'll bump that pot anytime from now on
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 05:14 PM
Tldr

Too much analysis for a freeroll tourney. People will do random sht
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tutejszy
bet pot pre? you mean, raise to 8bb with our 20bb stack? just shove preflop
Yeah missed that.

Def shove pre.
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 08:33 PM
GTO and freerolls.... I've seen it all.
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-23-2017 , 09:46 PM
It's a bit like balancing during a game of strip poker (and she may never take her shirt off if you play that way.)
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote
08-24-2017 , 08:33 PM
tl;dr, in freerolls people click random buttons at all times. Maybe you can try to predict which button they will click but other than that it is mostly just betting your good hands and checking/folding your bad hands.
Freeroll, flopped a monster Quote

      
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