Hey everyone!

I'm going through some sessions and trying to work on some of my poker math skills, and I want to make sure I understand the thought process behind adding fold equity into my equity.

Lets say, for instance, I've got 30% equity on the turn for what I believe will be the best hand. But I also feel like my opponent will fold to a small raise 1/3 of the time as well, based on past interaction with him.

If he will fold 33% of the time, he will call 66% of the time. When he calls 66% of the time, I will hit the winning hand 30% of the time.

So out of 66% of the time he calls, I will win about 20% of the time, add that to my 33% of the time when he folds, gives me about 53% equity if I bet out.

Does this logic sound right?

The math is ok but total equity, the sum of card and fold equity, has no direct use as far as I can tell; I suppose a high number is comforting.

You want to make decisions that are profitable (=> +EV) and that involves pot and bet sizes. For your example the EV equation is

EV = fe*Pot + (1-fe)*(eq(Pot + Bet)-(1-eq)*Bet),

where Pot is pot size before your bet of Bet when your card equity is eq and fe is fold equity. If it is a turn bet, this is only a first cut analysis since there is one more round of betting; also it assumes villain does not raise.

Pretty good first answer there ... Another factor when dealing with marginal EV spots is whether or not you will gain additional chips (or additional bluffing spots) when you do hit (or miss the 'right' way).

If you wont get paid off or those chips go into a 'lock-down' stack if you lose, then the risk may not be worth the reward even if the EV says go for it. GL