Explain if this is a fold or call - Beginning Poker Questions

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Explain if this is a fold or call

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10-31-2018 , 06:25 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

Satty.

4 left in a $55 satty to the ACR Live Cage for an over 5k+ buy-in. Total package including flights hotels and other expenses add up to over 8k+ package to Costa Rica. 3 players get the package. This is the stone bubble. You are sitting in this spot. What do you do?

This is a slam dunk fold, right? 20bb deep.

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10-31-2018 , 06:43 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

If anyone can plug this into ICMizer, it would be appreciated.

We don't have any info on BU so I'm having a really hard time assess villains range here.

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10-31-2018 , 07:12 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,739

He's probably jamming any two because he can, and you need a hell of a lot more than 99 to call

I love that they tell you your hand in a real money tournament just in case you couldn't work it out

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11-01-2018 , 05:11 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

He's probably jamming any two because he can, and you need a hell of a lot more than 99 to call

I love that they tell you your hand in a real money tournament just in case you couldn't work it out

We plugged this spot into ICMizer and based on the range given to the BU, we're showing that 99 is a profitable call here..

But is it profitable enough to make the call in a massive satty that is 100x the buy-in and you still have 20bb?

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11-01-2018 , 06:03 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

I find it hard to believe he'd only be jamming 11%. I jam a lot wider than that on satty bubbles if I've got both the blinds covered, and I'd expect them to fold everything except QQ+ even if I tell them "I'm jamming super-wide".

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11-01-2018 , 06:18 PM

Knittle

adept

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 828

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

Even if he only has one blind barely covered here?

I agree as well, (this icmizer was done by a friend sorry), but to define his range is so tough for us haha.

Like I think 22-JJ, KQo+, JTs+? and QQ+ he's inducing right?

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11-01-2018 , 07:59 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,739

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knittle

Even if he only has one blind barely covered here?

He only needs one more chip, it is that significant

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11-01-2018 , 08:50 PM

mttplayer

banned

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 197

if you win this hand you could be going to costa rica.
i'd call only because i don't care if i finish 4th and i love to punt and potentially have a memory of being involved in a coinflip.

for you if you call and he has 77 and hits a 7 and then you get all pissed off and it effects your bankroll or life then i would fold. there's more to it than just icm calculations.

Last edited by mttplayer; 11-01-2018 at 09:03 PM.

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11-01-2018 , 09:08 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

He only needs one more chip, it is that significant

Huh? Losing all but one chip is the practally same as going busto in this case where no-one is about to be blinded out.

I don't have a subscription to ICMizer anymore because I hate the subscription software model, but OP's screenshot doesn't seem right to me at all. 99 is about a flip vs. an 11% range, and we probably have like 65-ish% chance of cashing. When we call and win villain is not even crippled. BU should not be shoving any two, but 11% is too tight.

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11-01-2018 , 09:18 PM

#10

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

This is what I got out of ICMizer. It makes much more sense than your friend's screenshot.

http://icmpoker.com/screenshot/CXlOWT/

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11-02-2018 , 08:50 AM

#11

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

^ Yeah, that looks more like it. BTN jams 55% and BB can only call JJ+.

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11-02-2018 , 09:58 AM

#12

tucanroman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 434

How bad would be a direct push there with 99?

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11-02-2018 , 03:51 PM

#13

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,433

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucanroman

How bad would be a direct push there with 99?

Which player from which position? BU should obviously shove significantly wider than 99+.

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11-03-2018 , 09:24 AM

#14

tucanroman

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 434

I meant that exact hand, OP is CO and has 99 in that spot. Could it be better a push than a raise?

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11-03-2018 , 02:47 PM

#15

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucanroman

I meant that exact hand, OP is CO and has 99 in that spot. Could it be better a push than a raise?

CO probably wouldn't want to open jam 73bb effective (the BTN covers him), although it would probably be +EV if you put it into ICMizer, as BTN doesn't want to risk getting crippled by calling with anything except maybe AA. (That might be even be a fold).
CO is somewhat "handcuffed" when the chipleader has position on him and there are two smaller stacks. He should do a fair amount of open-folding, because he's vulnerable to "ATC jams" by the big stack if he opens normally.

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11-03-2018 , 11:45 PM

#16

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

My screenshot included CO's shoving strategy and BU's cold-call strategy. CO can shove 30% of hands and BU can only call with AA.

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