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+EV versus Staying in the Tourney +EV versus Staying in the Tourney

08-12-2020 , 12:54 PM
Was this the right move i.e. committing all my chips and putting my tournament at risk?

6 handed MTT.

On the Turn I called an all-in (committing all my chips) with a flush draw and gutshot 9-K straight (26% equity I believe). My EV calling his all-in was 21%

The only other player in the hand had flopped a straight 6-10

My Hand KQh
Their Hand 67os

Flop 8h 9s 10s

Turn 9h

Obvs I lost the hand, but the fact my tournament was on the line was this the right move to call or should I of looked for a better spot?
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08-12-2020 , 01:09 PM
not enough information

do you have a hand history?

if not, can you post stack sizes, positions, bet sizes and action to the turn, as well as ideally the payout structure, average remaining stack and number of players remaining?
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08-12-2020 , 06:05 PM
Hi,

hand history isnt available, all the information I have is what I've posted. I'll give more information next time
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08-12-2020 , 10:41 PM
Are you familiar with ICM? That would be the first tool I would use to examine this situation. There is a lot more that would go into the situation, but $EV as calculated by ICM versus your actual equity in the hand would be the first thing I would check
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08-13-2020 , 04:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
Are you familiar with ICM? That would be the first tool I would use to examine this situation. There is a lot more that would go into the situation, but $EV as calculated by ICM versus your actual equity in the hand would be the first thing I would check
I thought ICM was mostly relevant when on or near the bubble (plus after) but this was a long way from any money being won.
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08-13-2020 , 07:40 AM
ok - that's relevant

it's tough to say much here given the level of detail but work out what your opponent's range is and whether you have odds to call, in short
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08-13-2020 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewmd
I thought ICM was mostly relevant when on or near the bubble (plus after) but this was a long way from any money being won.
ICM is most relevant near the bubble or pay out jumps. Since you did not include stack sizes, pay out structure, number of players left, etc, it is impossible to say what effect ICM had in creating a difference between $EV and cEV.

I am not sure I understood your original scenario (you said equity was 26% and EV was 21%....but those numbers do not really make sense)

I will put it simply, though. If you are far away from the cash bubble, and unless their external factors (like this is a dream tournament where you value playing more than winning, you have a huge advantage over the field and can have a lot of +EV situations later, etc.), if the move is +EV, it is a decent move. This is basic poker.
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08-13-2020 , 09:59 PM
Bottom line is if you weren’t near the bubble and if the call was priced in then no you didn’t make a mistake.
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08-14-2020 , 06:57 AM
Many thanks or all the replies. Next time I post a similar question I'll ensure I include all the facts referred to above.
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08-14-2020 , 09:01 AM
If your call of the final pot was 21% (pot odds) and your equity to win was 26% (outs to win) then you made a good math decision. But you are asking if it was a good poker decision ... maybe not.

As noted above you do need to 'range' your opponent. How often are you drawing dead to a full house? How often do they have a better flush draw than you do? How often do they have the other flush draw? How many BB are you left with if you fold?

When you range an opponent the EV of a decision can be reduced. The information you've provided shows a +5% EV (26-21) but that's based on the cards being face up. How much of the 5% goes away when you start to consider 'how often' your opponent has some of these other holdings?

Even in a cash game I can consider folding in this spot based on the other factors. If there's one thing that I've also heard from live tournament grinders it's that you don't 'call off' your tournament life with a draw. You might shove with a draw if you think you have fold equity or have been the aggressor in the hand. But to call off your stack in this spot just might not happen as often as we think ... then it comes down to how many BB are left in your stack if you fold.
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08-14-2020 , 10:21 AM
Depending on preflop positions, the bubble, and the stack sizes involved:

Me: 14bb utg vs similar stacks far from the bubble, I shove preflop (implied is that I also shove from later positions with even larger stack; depending on antes, I can shove up to 20bb on the button with large antes, or I can 2x raise with 16bb with small antes)

Me: on the bubble (5 spots pay) vs large stacks, I’m 2x raising utg with as little as 11bb, even with large antes).

Me on the bubble with 20bb utg, while other stacks are only 13bb, I’m shoving. If not near the bubble I will 3x raise.

Ok so you made it to the flop after 2x or 3x raising in one of the situations above with kqs, most likely vs a blind position call, you will usually have spr of 2:1 to 4:1. With 2:1 spr, I would shove the flop , with 3:1 I would check the flop, with 4:1 I would bet 1/3 pot and fold to a shove.

If the sb or bb bets small on the flop, I’m shoving.

If it happened to be an in position caller, I would check shove the flop with spr < 4:1. Unless the flop bet is very large, which significantly reduces fold equity, in which case I fold the flop.
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08-14-2020 , 10:37 AM
Was the all-in call on the turn ok? Maybe. If there was a problem it happened before you ended up in that spot, though. You can't just look at one part of the hand in isolation. You need a more holistic approach.
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08-14-2020 , 09:36 PM
It's hard to give good advice with such limited information, but you should be calculating your equity against what you believe villain's range to be, not what you found out he had after the fact.

In this instance he may have had 76, which you have decent equity against, or he may have had something like a full-house, which has you drawing to one out, or NFD/J9 which has a lot of your outs dirty. Or he could have something like ATo which you have very good equity against with live overs as well. It's up to you to decide which hands to include in his range and how to weight them, then decide if you can profitably continue. Ranging opponents is the hardest thing to do in poker probably, but also the most important.
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08-15-2020 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
If your call of the final pot was 21% (pot odds) and your equity to win was 26% (outs to win) then you made a good math decision. But you are asking if it was a good poker decision ... maybe not.

As noted above you do need to 'range' your opponent. How often are you drawing dead to a full house? How often do they have a better flush draw than you do? How often do they have the other flush draw? How many BB are you left with if you fold?

When you range an opponent the EV of a decision can be reduced. The information you've provided shows a +5% EV (26-21) but that's based on the cards being face up. How much of the 5% goes away when you start to consider 'how often' your opponent has some of these other holdings?

Even in a cash game I can consider folding in this spot based on the other factors. If there's one thing that I've also heard from live tournament grinders it's that you don't 'call off' your tournament life with a draw. You might shove with a draw if you think you have fold equity or have been the aggressor in the hand. But to call off your stack in this spot just might not happen as often as we think ... then it comes down to how many BB are left in your stack if you fold.
This is a very good point. Is there some kind of rule of thumb that you can apply to your outs if the board pairs like that? Like maybe say halve all your outs?
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08-18-2020 , 09:33 AM
The rule of thumb is to range your opponent ... the more outs/holdings you share, that give your opponent a better hand or the times you are already drawing dead reduce your potential equity, which then may make this a 'bad' math decision as opposed to a good one. GL
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