EV of open folding the SB - Beginning Poker Questions

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EV of open folding the SB

View Poll Results: What is the EV of open folding the SB?

It is -10 because we have already invested 10 on our SB.

1 9.09%

0. Blind money belong to the pot and every calculation should happen after blinds have been posted

10 90.91%

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03-30-2018 , 04:30 PM

npolychr

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 39

Alright, this has been bugging me for a while. I've constructed a simple EV calculator but I'm getting second thoughts on my formula.

Let's say we are on SB playing 10/20.

Vote on poll (so we can get a clear result) and please explain your thought process.

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03-30-2018 , 04:56 PM

madlex

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What’s your EV for folding on the flop after getting raised? Same answer.

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03-30-2018 , 05:00 PM

BroadwaySushy

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Depends.

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03-30-2018 , 05:15 PM

madlex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

Depends.

It doesn’t.

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03-30-2018 , 05:58 PM

BroadwaySushy

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Is open folding with AA -EV or +EV?

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03-30-2018 , 06:10 PM

madlex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

Is open folding with AA -EV or +EV?

Is that a serious question?

I'll bite because it's the beginners forum. Folding AA preflop has exactly the same EV as folding 72o: 0. Folding is always EV neutral.

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03-30-2018 , 07:44 PM

BroadwaySushy

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I'll put it another way then. Is open raising AA -EV or +EV?

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03-30-2018 , 08:08 PM

madlex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

I'll put it another way then. Is open raising AA -EV or +EV?

That depends on your skill, but isn't anywhere close to the question on hand.

The EV of folding is always 0. No matter if we have the nut low or a Royal Flush.

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03-30-2018 , 08:24 PM

browni3141

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Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

It depends on the starting point you are referencing to. If you are starting at your first decision point in the SB, folding is 0 EV from that point. If you are analyzing from the deal, folding the SB is -10.

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03-30-2018 , 09:17 PM

#10

BroadwaySushy

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Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

That depends on your skill, but isn't anywhere close to the question on hand.

The EV of folding is always 0. No matter if we have the nut low or a Royal Flush.

If taking a particular action has a +EV, then not taking that particular action is -EV, surely.

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03-30-2018 , 09:32 PM

#11

madlex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadwaySushy

If taking a particular action has a +EV, then not taking that particular action is -EV, surely.

No. Just no.

Not sure what else to say except for suggesting to read up on what EV (expected value) means and how it is defined.

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03-30-2018 , 09:43 PM

#12

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,095

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

This is the correct answer.

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03-31-2018 , 04:12 AM

#13

npolychr

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 39

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

Exactly my thought process. To give another example;

We open raise and get 3bet. By that thinking,

folding is 0 EV,

raise/folding is -(openRaiseSize) EV.

Correct?

But when analyzing hands, which point should we use to make correct decisions? Step by step, or the hand as a whole? That's where it gets confusing.

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03-31-2018 , 06:32 AM

#14

WereBeer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brokenstars

This is the correct answer.

Agreed, I assume that the reason that it's not normally explained like this is to help students avoid the sunk cost fallacy.

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03-31-2018 , 10:54 AM

#15

Kelvis

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by npolychr

There isn't a single right answer, you set the 0EV to whatever you think helps you in calculations. You could set folding to +1000 if you like, because you're trying to calculate the difference in EV between different options. For simplicity, setting the EV to 0 for folding is standard, even if you just put in 80% of your stack.

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03-31-2018 , 11:28 AM

#16

Syon

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 411

Quote:

Originally Posted by npolychr

But when analyzing hands, which point should we use to make correct decisions? Step by step, or the hand as a whole? That's where it gets confusing.

Analyze each step.

Chips already committed from previous actions are no longer yours. When you bet and get raised your original bet is no longer yours. It belongs to the pot. Folding to the raise would be ev 0 since you can not gain or lose chips from your stack. (The original bet is not in your stack).

When going back to look at how you played a hand you look at each step. Each spot is an opportunity to make a mistake or play correctly. That’s why you see some analyst posts where someone replies “fold pre, but as played I would...”.

Last edited by Syon; 03-31-2018 at 11:36 AM.

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03-31-2018 , 12:41 PM

#17

statmanhal

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

To support what several others have said, EV analysis has to use a consistent baseline to compare alternatives. The most common one is the decision point. If one decided to fold every SB hand, then the decision point is the card deal or the player’s decision to play, so his SB EV is the blind cost. If the SB player makes a decision to fold after looking at his cards then his EV =0, assuming he doesn’t always fold.

I suppose there could be a mixed EV. Suppose a player enters the game with the strategy of always folding in the SB unless he has AA. Then would not his SB EV = Pr(no AA)*(-0.5bb) + Pr(AA)*EV(AA)?

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03-31-2018 , 12:50 PM

#18

Feng Shui

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 595

Betting and calling are +ev and -ev folding is 0ev , posting blinds is -ev. Take a river call where you face an all in bet when you hold the nuts. Obviously calling is +ev as you win 100% of the time .But this doesn't make folding -ev it's neutral. So it just means you took a 0ev line where you could of taken a +ev line. The same thing with open folding the SB your taking a 0ev line where you could be taking a +ev line.

And as someone already stated raising or calling X hand pre isn't in itself +ev or -ev that depends on skill lvl. But folding always remains neutral.

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