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Equity vs a Range Equity vs a Range

07-13-2018 , 03:58 PM
I am trying to do equity vs a range(I am learning from the book "poker math that matters", I did my own example but I am way off.

Hero: QQ

Villains range: J10, 22, 66

Flop: 26J

22: our out(s) are the two Q's. 2x4=8%, 3 combos

66: our out(s) are the two Q's. 2x4=8%, 3 combos

J10: Villains out(s) are the three tens and two J's. 5x4=20%, 12 combos

Because the draw combos are two times more likely, we need to find the 2/3 of 8%-20%.

I would say is 12%, but because J10 has more combos, we need to slide it more to the 20%, I would say our equity is around 13%.

We are using the "mental slider" here, but when I do this on Equilab, it comes to us having 45% equity, what am I doing wrong? Is there another way to do equity vs a range?

I am doing this just like, it is described in the book.
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07-13-2018 , 04:06 PM
For the JT, we have 80% not 20%. We are ahead.

(You’re also not accounting for stuff like redraws and diamond-diamond against 22 and 66, but that’s minor).
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07-13-2018 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
For the JT, we have 80% not 20%. We are ahead.

(You’re also not accounting for stuff like redraws and diamond-diamond against 22 and 66, but that’s minor).
So, we are trying to get 2/3 of 8%-80%, which comes around to 45%?

Last edited by parbar; 07-13-2018 at 04:45 PM.
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07-13-2018 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parbar
So, we are trying to get 2/3 of 8%-80%, which comes around to 45%?
You math is confusing.

You have 18 combos total, right

6 of those combos(1/3 of the total), you have 8% equity
12 of those combos(2/3 of the total), you have 80% equity

so, your equity against the range is (1/3)*(8%) + (2/3)*(80%), or 56%

When I do this in equilab, QQ versus a range of just JT, 22, and 66, with the board two suited to a suit I have, I get 58% equity, which can easily be accounted for based on using the rule of 2 and 4 to estimate equity.
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07-13-2018 , 05:15 PM
[EDIT: I'm slow at typing. Well played, Spewing.]

Villain can have 3 combos of 22, and 3 combos of 66, and your outs vs those are two queens (about 11% chance) and running diamonds that don't pair the board (worth about 1% equity). (You also have to consider the brutal - but rare- rollercoaster of binking a queen on the turn, and villain binking a 1-outer for quads on the river). You've got about 12.5% equity vs each set.
When villain has JT, you're already ahead, but he has 5 outs to two pairs or trips, so he has about a 20% chance of sucking out. If he's playing all combos of JT (i.e. JTs and JTo), then he has 12 possible combos on that J62 flop. In short, you have about 80% equity vs his top pair.

So your overall equity (based on 3 combos of 22, 3 of 66 and 12 of JTo/JTs, making 18 total combos) is approximately
(3/18 * 12.5%) + (3/18 * 12.5%) + (12/18 * 80%)
=2.1 + 2.1 + 53 = 57.2%

If I run it through Equilab, it's actually almost 58%.

Note, if villain doesn't have JTo in his range, he can only have 3 combos of JTs on that board, so then you're crushing 3 combos, but you're majorly crushed by 6 combos.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 07-13-2018 at 05:22 PM.
Equity vs a Range Quote
07-14-2018 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
You math is confusing.

You have 18 combos total, right

6 of those combos(1/3 of the total), you have 8% equity
12 of those combos(2/3 of the total), you have 80% equity

so, your equity against the range is (1/3)*(8%) + (2/3)*(80%), or 56%

When I do this in equilab, QQ versus a range of just JT, 22, and 66, with the board two suited to a suit I have, I get 58% equity, which can easily be accounted for based on using the rule of 2 and 4 to estimate equity.

Sorry if it is confusing, I am reading Owens Gaines poker math that matters and going with the examples(he uses a method called "mental slider" or " MS Method", I am trying to go on that), I am really confused here, I will go through your example and try it.

Last edited by parbar; 07-14-2018 at 11:47 AM.
Equity vs a Range Quote
07-14-2018 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
[EDIT: I'm slow at typing. Well played, Spewing.]

Villain can have 3 combos of 22, and 3 combos of 66, and your outs vs those are two queens (about 11% chance) and running diamonds that don't pair the board (worth about 1% equity). (You also have to consider the brutal - but rare- rollercoaster of binking a queen on the turn, and villain binking a 1-outer for quads on the river). You've got about 12.5% equity vs each set.
When villain has JT, you're already ahead, but he has 5 outs to two pairs or trips, so he has about a 20% chance of sucking out. If he's playing all combos of JT (i.e. JTs and JTo), then he has 12 possible combos on that J62 flop. In short, you have about 80% equity vs his top pair.

So your overall equity (based on 3 combos of 22, 3 of 66 and 12 of JTo/JTs, making 18 total combos) is approximately
(3/18 * 12.5%) + (3/18 * 12.5%) + (12/18 * 80%)
=2.1 + 2.1 + 53 = 57.2%

If I run it through Equilab, it's actually almost 58%.

Note, if villain doesn't have JTo in his range, he can only have 3 combos of JTs on that board, so then you're crushing 3 combos, but you're majorly crushed by 6 combos.

Thank you for the detailed example, it will take me time to really understand this, I am learning how to do this at a live table.
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07-14-2018 , 01:09 PM
you can only use these approximations on the fly after building muscle memory from a lot of off the table work. It's a slow and steady process but achievable.
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07-14-2018 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cfoye
you can only use these approximations on the fly after building muscle memory from a lot of off the table work. It's a slow and steady process but achievable.

Could you please give me a example of how that would work? I am getting some of it after going through the examples but not all of it.

Thank you.
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07-14-2018 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parbar
Could you please give me a example of how that would work? I am getting some of it after going through the examples but not all of it.

Thank you.
Real simple, give yourself common scenarios. I.E. calling a 3 bet shove from a 15 bb stack preflop with QQ. You know that this player has JJ+, AT+, KQ in his range. You break the range into groups, overcards, over pairs, under pairs, and 1 live card. You determine the number of combos in each group. You determine the equity of each group. Then you use that information, using the methods described above, to calculate the equity against the range. Then you check yourself using Equilab.

Every time you run into a common situation that you haven't figured the equity for, mentally note it, and work out the equity after the session is over. Do this a couple hundred times, and you will start to see patterns and emerge to the point where you can approximate equity against a range to within a few percentage points without having to do the math.
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07-21-2018 , 03:40 AM
Epic reply. Listen to him ^
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07-22-2018 , 05:19 AM
yeah. the shortcut methods that Gaines uses in his book do have some merit and IIRC he does give you about 3 or 4 to choose from. As others have said;the best way is probably to get a feel for common spots and work on these with equilab until you have a good feel for these recurring situations. The issue with trying to mentally compute this at the table (when you've likely got a timebank counting down in front of your eyes) is they work best when you're estimating Vs a tight range
Equity vs a Range Quote
07-22-2018 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpewingIsMyMove
Real simple, give yourself common scenarios. I.E. calling a 3 bet shove from a 15 bb stack preflop with QQ. You know that this player has JJ+, AT+, KQ in his range. You break the range into groups, overcards, over pairs, under pairs, and 1 live card. You determine the number of combos in each group. You determine the equity of each group. Then you use that information, using the methods described above, to calculate the equity against the range. Then you check yourself using Equilab.

Every time you run into a common situation that you haven't figured the equity for, mentally note it, and work out the equity after the session is over. Do this a couple hundred times, and you will start to see patterns and emerge to the point where you can approximate equity against a range to within a few percentage points without having to do the math.

I am trying to do this, it is not easy, it will take me a little bit of time before I fully catch onto this.

Thank you for the post.
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07-22-2018 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cashnotakite
yeah. the shortcut methods that Gaines uses in his book do have some merit and IIRC he does give you about 3 or 4 to choose from. As others have said;the best way is probably to get a feel for common spots and work on these with equilab until you have a good feel for these recurring situations. The issue with trying to mentally compute this at the table (when you've likely got a timebank counting down in front of your eyes) is they work best when you're estimating Vs a tight range
So what you are saying that, it works best when used against a tight range.

First example:

My opponent has: QQ-KK-AA

Second example:

My opponent has JJ+, AQ+, 99-10

It will be hard in the second example because there are too many hands, this is where I put in the work away from the table on equilab.
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07-23-2018 , 01:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parbar
I am trying to do this, it is not easy, it will take me a little bit of time before I fully catch onto this.

Thank you for the post.
I used to do this all the time when I was driving. A great way to kill time. The worse, though, was waiting until you were parked to run an equity calculator and see if you were right
Equity vs a Range Quote
07-23-2018 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parbar
So what you are saying that, it works best when used against a tight range.

First example:

My opponent has: QQ-KK-AA

Second example:

My opponent has JJ+, AQ+, 99-10

It will be hard in the second example because there are too many hands, this is where I put in the work away from the table on equilab.
Exactly. your first example would be relatively simple to calculate in game time, the second slightly harder.

The panic would set in if you, for example, had a hand like Jj and the flop came down k87 and you assigned V a range of(KK,88,77, TT+,KT+,,bluff combos) facing a pot shove needing X amount of eq. to call. Good luck with doing that in 30 seconds !!
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