Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 10,857
Yes, it's a moving target ... Your factors are % of calls and V's calling range with both of these being pretty difficult to pin down. And those can change depending on which street of betting you are on as well.
But in the simplest terms ... Pot = 100, You bet 50 ... 150/50 is 3. So V must fold 1 out of 3 tries to break even. (This assumes you are behind 100% of the time when called)
To move this in your favor, assuming V still calls 67%, just change the bet a little. Pot = 100, You bet 40 ... 140/40 is 3.5. Now you just swung it in your favor by 20 chips net.
V calls, you lose 40
V calls, you lose 40
V folds, you win 100 ... net gain of 20 chips over folding/showdown loss
Let's change the scenario a little to see what happens ...
Checks to Showdown .. Hero wins 25% ... win 25 chips (100 pot x 25%) at zero additional risk
Pot = 100, Bet = 40, V = 100% call, Hero win = 25% ... win 45 chips (180*.25), but you had to risk 40 'more' to do so .. thus ...
Lose 40 3 times + win net 140 once = win 'only' 20 more net by risking 40. Not a good long term plan. GL