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Old 09-19-2018, 04:53 PM   #1
FlatRaise1
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Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

I'm sure the answer will just be that the sample size isn't large enough - But given the graph below, should I consider myself unlucky when considering the gap between the yellow & green lines?

I suppose what I'm asking is if this gap is normal?

All hands where played at 2NL Zoom and I'm just wondering if a gap between the lines of $16 is normal after 11,300 hands or have I just been super unlucky when All In?

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Old 09-19-2018, 05:12 PM   #2
The Imp
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

It's normal, a bit unlucky in all-in situations that's all. It's better to ignore all-in ev, it's only a small part of how "lucky" you are and there's nothing you can do about it anyway.
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Old 09-19-2018, 07:32 PM   #3
MMSS
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlatRaise1 View Post
I'm sure the answer will just be that the sample size isn't large enough
This is like the worst scenario. You think you get variance but you really don't.
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:45 AM   #4
FlatRaise1
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MMSS View Post
This is like the worst scenario. You think you get variance but you really don't.
please elaborate?
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Old 09-20-2018, 06:49 AM   #5
CC96
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlatRaise1 View Post
please elaborate?
Pretty much that it could be more down to some major leaks in your game instead of variance. Not saying that it is but there are more variables to losing in the short term, not just variance.
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Old 09-20-2018, 07:12 AM   #6
Somby
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

What does 'all in adj' stat include?


It might seem obvious but I had a real battle trying to figure out what "Attempt To Steal" stat included.

Last edited by Somby; 09-20-2018 at 07:19 AM.
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Old 09-20-2018, 09:24 AM   #7
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

I think you've been very unlucky in the all-in spots so far, but it's actually possible to run significantly worse than that. (e.g. 10 buy-ins below EV every 10,000 hands, such that you'd be 100 buy-ins down after 100k).
It's "normal" in the sense that your results are within the standard deviation, but most people will run a lot closer to EV in a sample of that size. I feel your pain, because my latest graph is somewhat similar, but there's nothing you can actively do to change your luck. Unfortunately you just have grind it out, move on and 'forget' about this small sample. At some point in the future you'll have an even worse period of runbad, and if it's at higher stakes, it will make the losses in this graph seem insignificant in comparison.
Just gotta try and ignore the luck factor and keep your chin up. It's easier said than done though. Poker can be very frustrating from time to time.
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Old 09-23-2018, 11:42 PM   #8
Nozsr
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Re: Does this just mean I'm unlucky?

Zoom is insanely competitive.

The players are very strong and make life difficult for novices, "fit-or-folders", and tighter players.

There is a good chance you lose too much when you're beat and win "too little" when you hold up.

It's hard to separate that from your "all in results" graph even if it means something about your "luck".
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