Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 22
My thoughts:
Preflop facing a raise from UTG with a hand like KTo, I'm considering folding depending on the playing habits of the player UTG. Already being big blind gives you better odds to call though, so I may call it sometimes, especially if UTG is usually a loose player. Assuming he's not a maniac, I'm putting him on a high pocket pair, AK, AQ, and maybe some other suited broadway hands.
The flop comes and it doesn't really hit his range. Sure he could have JJ, or even AA, KK, QQ but odds are he's missed this more times than he's hit and he's c-betting to get you to fold after you checked, so I'm happy to call there. Maybe even mix in a 3 bet semi-bluff (you have an open ended straight draw), but I prefer that in a heads up situation.
The turn gives you top pair and you still have a straight draw. I like the check, I'd be trying to see a cheap showdown. UTG raises, and this could still be a bluff. But then SB check-raises him with an amount that has no fold equity at all. UTG is always going to call the extra 1.5BB in such a big pot. That tells me SB either has trips or has hit his straight already - the flop suited his range a lot better than UTG's.
At that point I think I would fold, at worst I'd call and hope for a Q on the river.
If I had to guess how this played out, I'd guess SB wins with a K high straight, and UTG loses with AA, or a set of kings or jacks?