For 200 coin flips, standard deviation = Sqrt(0.25/200) = .035.

(58% -50%)/0.035 =2.3 sd

Pr( guess right >=58% |fair coin) = 1% (normal approx.)

Just guessing myself on Kelvis’s offer.

He says he can get 60% right so 58% should be easy for him.

Fun fact: if you write out Pi (approximately 3.14, but it's basically a series of "random" numbers) to a trillian decimal places, you'll see roughly one thousand million more 8s than 5s or zeroes. Does that mean that the next number is more likely to be a zero or an 8?
You can't predict patterns even in very large series of random numbers.... because they are random. Obviously.
Another fun fact about Pi: At positon 768 in the pi digits is a sequence of six 9s in a row.
Even earlier than that is a sequence of 10 even numbers a row (equivalent to flipping heads ten times consecutively). Who'd a thunk it?

Believing that past events predict future happenings, as it relates to luck, is called the Gambler's Fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
gold9er seems to be suffering from it. It's actually quite common/normal to do so. If you're stupid.

I think this is fairly harsh it's more if you're unaware. And even if you are aware it can be hard to get around the thought process.

That being said when you're unaware making such ridiculous statements and digging yourself into such a hole when people are trying to help you is more of an issue.

What I think most people think incorrectly about EV is that if you play 1000 hands and are -3BI compared to EV and then you play 2 million more hands you'd expect to be -3BI not closer to EV as you've played more. Luck is a past thing and has no effect on future results. That being siad that -3BI just becomes a smaller and smaller irrelevance the bigger your sample.

In OP's case I think it is fair to be a little harsh.

I mean....

I'm not the ideal person to be speaking about being nice in BQ (although I've rarely posted with bad intentions just maybe a bit moody) but this is once again a really common thing for people to think.

Understanding variance is really hard. I understand variance really well compared to your average person, I'd argue better than most poker players, and I still find myself overestimating/underestimating my abilities off small (relative) samples.

It has been heavily documented for those interested why people are bad at variance and a lot of it boils down to I'm winning = I've won when a 70/30 is really very common to lose. If you do that 4 times and lose which isn't exactly uncommon to a playerbase you can understand why people feel that way.

The funny thing is that poker sites in teh past literally have been rigged. Assuming that poker sites follow the regulations in place, which they are forced to in most countries, these days they literally can't lie about as they have to be able to prove everything.

Yeah, I think I was a bit harsh. I used to be 'fooled by randomness' myself (and I still am, because I can't shake off the pattern-recognition process that is extremely useful for normal life, which is why it's effectively been coded into human DNA as part of the evolutionary process), and my "stupid" comment was unnecessary.

Reminds me of when I played table top war games. Essentially you would roll a dice for each model needing say a six to score a hit. Then you would roll a dice for each hit needing say a six to kill the opposition. Quickest way is to roll all the dice first. Pick up all the sizes then roll em again then any six you get is a kill.
I knew people who would refuse to do that and use different dice for the second roll because it was apparently obvious that getting 6 twice on the same die wad harder than rolling a six on two different dice.
Nothing you could say would convince them otherwise.

What is funny about that is that if the die that gave a first 6 is anyway biased, its most likely second outcome would be a 6, based on this very small sample.

Yeah, it was just an example of people who were quite bright, could understand the game rules, the tactical options, etc, etc. Yet they were not only totally unable to grasp that independent events don't affect each other but also could not be convinced of it in any way.

how many times have you had aces cracked with a crap hand.

we flip a coin 50 times i bet i can get 30 right. (60%)
we put up $200 each. you come to me and we will do this live. put your money where your mouth is.

as far as poker percentages are concerned. i now know how to do it. but i don't do it. percentages are a VERY small part of poker. better to consider the potential hand you OPPONENT is holding. he is the one you got to beat.
there's too many other things to consider. like:
your streak
your bankroll
is he bluffing

what you want to do is win in the short run. remember: this is a gambling game first

$200 each meaning 50 times $200? So my $10k vs your $10k? And you win if you have 30+ right?

we put up $200 cash each. you flip a coin 50 times. i wont make a guess before each flip but i got to guess at least 30 correct. if i guess 30 flips or more correct i win your $200. if i don't you win my $200

HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHA $200. Depending on where you live that won't even cover travel expenses.

Seriously dude if you're too broke to put more money behind this bet (which is basically a lock) at least get some other braindead to back you. Like I said, any amount up to the US national debt. But apparently I also needed to set a lower limit which I will do at $10k.

Do you accept for $10k+?

i aint broke. ill do it for $1000. you the one saying it caint be done

There is a 10.1% chance you can get lucky at 50 tosses. Your EV is

0.101*400 - 200 = -159.6

So man up and do this for $10k. At least that covers my flight.

i dont have $10k but ill gladly take your $1000

We can do it for $1000 if you pay my travel costs.

Careful Kelvis......

No he's saying he has to call 30 flips in a 50 flip span. So he observe the first 20 if he wants to, then he has to start guessing the remaining 30 and have them all correct. So basically if he doesn't guess any of the flips it is his disadvantage. Basically he made it more ******ed for himself.

forget it dude. you either come to me and bring $1000 or its nothing. no more replying

That's what I thought. Have fun in broketown.

I have a hard time believing that in the 21st Century a person truly believes they can actually find a "pattern" behind what's random behavior. This guy has to be trolling.

guys, this is the 21st century, no need fly half way around the country, we have webcams. Just nominate some trusted third party to be the flipper, escrow the funds and get on with it.