im having trouble with this one. and havent found a easy explanation to it.
need simple answers

to calculate the percentage of hitting your hand after the FLOP you multiply your outs by 4
to calculate the percentage of hitting your hand after the TURN you multiply your puts by 2

if i have 4 cards to a flush, there are 9 cards left in a suit that will make me hit the flush (13-4=9)
so, after the flop i multiply my outs x 4 (9x4=36) which gives me the PERCENTAGE% of htting my hand right?

i have to convert this percentage into odds.
36 goes into 100 3 times
can i just say 3-1=2 to get approximate odds? 2-1?
can i always subtract 1 from how many times the percentage goes into 100 to get the odds?

or is this not correct?

so if the pot is $100 and it costs $50 to call, i am getting break even odds?

4 and 2 rule isn't exact.

It's all about the size of your investment relative to the pot.

someone bets and it's on you:

9:1? 10% investment
4:1? 20% investment facing 1/3 pot sized bet
3:1? 25% investment facing 1/2 pot sized bet
2:1? 33.333% investment facing pot sized bet

most of the bets you face will be within this spectrum.

So what kinds of hands can call getting 9:1? naked gutshots, 6 out overcard draws, and anything better.

4:1? high end gutshots on the flop, low end flushdraws on the turn, etc.

3:1? ok I'm folding most gutshots on the turn here, would have to bet over 2x pot when I hit to make up the implied odds. flopped open enders and flushdraws are ok here.

2:1? need ok implied odds even with strong open ended straight draws and medium flushdraws. Dominating straight or flush draws are ok here. turn pot sized bets are serious business. It takes a very strong draw to call here. I'm thinking like combo flush straight draw, or medium pair + flushdraw, stuff like that is probably ok to call.

If they're betting >pot on the flop or turn? I think that's a discussion for a different thread.

----

Then on the river it breaks down like this:

he bet 1/2 pot, I need to win 25% of the time to show a profit. Can I beat a bluff? If yes will this opponent bluff 25+% of the time? If yes call, if no fold.

he bet pot, I need to win 33.333% of the time to show a profit. Can I beat a bluff? If yes will this opponent bluff 33+ % of the time? If yes call, if no fold.

You use the 4x rule only on the flop and when the bet is all-in, otherwise use the 2x rule.

As for odds,

Pot Odds = Pot amount to be won/ Amount to call

Required Equity >= 1/(1+Pot Odds)

Or
Required Pot Odds >= (1/Equity) -1

So if estimated equity is 36%, required pot odds = 1/0.36 -1 ~ 2 to 1

Pot odds= 100 /50 = 2 to 1

You need equity of 1/(1+2)= 33%

Another way of looking at it is that if you call, of the total pot, you contributed 50/150 = 33%, so 33% is your “fair share”.

I know the 4x and 2x is not completely accurate but i need a simple way to get it close. Every time i read something on this it seems the person is going into all this calculus to prove they know math.
im confused. I been reading after the flop (2 more cards to go) its 4x your outs to get your percentage. Now your saying you only use the 4x rule after the flop when the bet is all in. Otherwise use 2x instead of 4x. Which is it?
Also is my math correct, you divide 100 by your outs percentage then minus 1 to covert to odds?

Get Equilab or something similar and just try out different scenarios to get the percentages. Basically you just need to be able to estimate the most common ones to a few percentage points just by practicing.

The 4/2 rule is not simple long term because you need to get away from it anyways.

That’s correct – 4x only if all in. If not all in there likely will be bets on the turn so odds will change.

Dividing your equity into 100 minus 1 does give you the card odds and the associated required pot odds, which I confirmed in my posting.


Excuse me if you think this comment is out of line but I think you’ll be much better off if you try to understand the math rather than complain about someone posting relatively simple math.

Correct.

In the modern game, due to higher bluffing frequencies, pair outs have strengthened over the years. This is why I believe that it's so important to begin to think in terms of equity instead of outs.

word.

You had it fine in your post. When you look at 'outs' you are looking at/calculating equity. You can then use the equity to compare the pot odds you are getting to see if you are making the 'correct' call.

The rule of 2 and 4 is a good (close enough) equity calculator, but you then have to apply that to the pot, any bet you are facing, dead money and what's left in your stack when looking at you pot and implied odds. GL

I always forego the odds notation and just stick to percentages.

a) If the pot is 100 and 50 to call then those 50 are 33% of the final pot of 150
b)Your equity (by the 2/4 rule you already know) is how much of the pot you can expect to win on average

If you put more money into the pot than you can expect to win its a bad play
(ignoring stuff like (reverse)implied odds and possible fold equity due to bluffing opportunities on later streets, that is)

The 4x rule only works if by that bet you are about to make on the flop you are sure to see both cards - which is only true in an all-in scenario or you are totally sure (for whatever reason) your opponent will not bet the turn (e.g. because he is a totally passive calling station after any c-bet).
If you expect a bet to happen then you can only count on seeing 1 card (the turn) and have to reevaluate then. So in that case it's 2x.

If you divide 100 by your % you will get you your odds in 1 in form.

For example, 33% = 100 / 33 = 3. This represents a 1 in 3 chance of winning.


1 in 3 odds can also be expressed as 1:2 for or 2:1 against. You can convert from 1 in X to 1:X by subtracting 1.



So long story short, yes.

by saying "4x only if all in"
are you saying if would call a all in on the turn?

of course if i have 2 spades to a flush and the flop is:
as, 10s, ah, i only need 1 more spade to make a flush. but there is a possible full house on the board. someone before me goes all-in. they could have a, 10
which in my opinion throws odds out the window. it then depends on the player, and his position and some intuition

If you are on the flop, then your concern is what will happen on the turn, not what will happen on the turn and river, because you may face a bet again on the turn.

So for example :

$20 in the pot, heads up. Villain bets $10 on a flop of Kh8h2s. You have AhTh.

You are getting 3:1. You want to hit nine hearts (2h is a bit dubious because it pairs the board and does not give you the nuts, but we will ignore that for now). We know five cards, so there are 47 remaining. That is 9:38, or 4.25:1 against hitting your flush. So you aren't really getting the odds to call, unless your ace is good or your opponent will pay off if you hit.

Now over two cards you are about 2:1 against hitting your flush. So if you were all in for that $10 it would be an easy call getting 3:1. For 3:1 you need only 25% equity to call all in.

Please note in the below simulation we have basically no hidden outs, although we could get runner TT or runner QJ.


Hold'em Simulation ?
990 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Kh8h2d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AhTh 37.27% 369 0
AsAc 62.73% 621 0


But with only one card to come, we have only 20% equity :

Hold'em Simulation ?
44 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Kh8h2d4d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AhTh 20.45% 9 0
AsAc 79.55% 35 0

Dependent probability tells us that if you have an 80% chance of something, then the chance of hitting it in two tries is 80% squared, or 64%, or 2:1 against. So over multiple tries the probability of hitting something goes up (or conversely the probability of not hitting it goes down).

Basically, when you are on the flop, your concern is how often will you hit your hand on the turn, and then what will happen. 20% equates to 4:1, but it is not quite so simple as we are not getting the direct odds to call so we should fold, because what if we hit our flush and then our opponent calls a bet on the turn or river? Or what if he bets and then calls a raise? Or what if we call on the flop, and then he checks the turn and we get a free river? So there are a lot of possibilities, and your task is basically to model them all as much as you can. In the 3:1 example with the nut flush draw you probably could call, even though you are not getting the 4:1 pot odds that equate to your probability of hitting the turn, because at least some of the time almost any opponent will be calling something on the turn or the river. Even if they are folding 90% of the time, that other 10% of the time they might be stacking off. Against a very loose or suspicious opponent, who will happily call two large bets with top pair even though the flush came, then you can draw more liberally than you can against a weak tight nit who will sigh fold if you do hit your hand. And if your opponent is very aggressive and could be bluffing and willing to barrel off on the flush card then you get implied odds there as well.

This is why knowing your equity and your chances to hit is useful but not the answer to everything.

So much depends on their range, your cards, the flop texture, villains play style, if even hitting your 'whatever' is going to be good enough.

I mean I'm a new player so I could be wrong but whilst I think knowing outs and equity is useful it's only one part of the information that guides your decision.

Think of pot odds as a lower bound. If you get pot odds it's usually* an easy call. If you barely don't get pot odds you can consider whether you have implied odds (moreso with 'hidden' straight draws than with flush draws where everyone can see the three spades on the board).
But there are very few situations when you're a considerable distance from your pot odds that makes calling correct.

* there may be reverse implied odds if you used the 4x calc and aren't all-in. There may also be other factors at the table like somone later in the hand whom you can almost smell will go all-in...and who would deny you odds on a further call so that your erstwhile call would be wasted chips.

Pot odds are only 'exact' if you draw to the nuts. You should remove a number of outs depending on how many more nutted hands can come up that make sense with villains range.

You are catching on just fine. We use a phrase called 'ABC Poker' when it comes to new Players and that style is basically what I call 'cards', not poker. You play straight forward .. math and current hand strength, not taking the other Players into account too much in your decision making.

The problem with ABC is that you rarely get 'correct' calling odds against a decent opponent. If the first Player to act 'always' bet out 2x pot it would be pretty tough to call with any of your draws!

So once you get through the basics of 'cards' you can then move onto more 'poker' related aspects of the hand ... position, range, stack size, equity, fold equity, implied odds, history with opponent, how to use your image and so forth.

If you're going to play online, then you really need to look more at the math and the charts that can guide you from UTG to the Blinds in an attempt to 'control' your exposure to variance over the many more hands you will play.

Welcome and use this forum to expand your knowledge .. just be ready for some blunt comments (and less 'real' interaction) if you aren't willing to acknowledge the aspects of the game that need improvement. GL

thanks everyone for your replies and comments.
i gotta say in poker and any kind of gambling its all about streaks.
even a coin flip can be predicted if you study the pattern

last night i won about $600 by just waiting for some kind of winning streak.
and man was it a winning streak.
i was card dead for about 2 hours.
if i would have played by the book and bet the percentages on every hand, i would have been out of there in 30min.

so to me, its all about learning how to gamble 1st. percentages 2nd

gold9er, if you have a hand that is 92% ahead and you get it all in....are you gambling?

Oh dear oh dear.

Just remember that you hit trips with 4x and 6x more than any other since most people don't play those cards. GL

How much money are you willing to bet that you can do this (say that you can predict 70 out 100 coinflips correctly as not to make it too hard).
I'm sure you will find no shortage of takers

ill bet you i can win 60% of the time i predict. but not predict every coin toss back to back.

the law of averages works out. past results affect future performance
but the short time can show a pattern

but i have a question. lets say you are flipping a coin every 5 seconds in rhythm and you have 4 tails in a row.
you take a 30 min break.
would that coin remember the pattern and likely land on tails next time?
probally not.
look for the pattern.
something to think about huh.

Flipping a coin is 50/50 no matter how you cut it.

If someone ever offered you better than 1:1 odds on a coin flip, take the bet. If they offer you worse than 1:1? Decline.

.

That is an insufficient treatment of the problem. You must also ask how much of your bankroll you are risking, and whether the variance is worth the expectation. In this case you should not wager more of your bankroll than your advantage, so if they offered you 1.01:1 for an edge of 0.5% you should not risk more than .5% of your bankroll, and probably not more than 0.25% just to be safe. Then of course I would be concerned that someone was offering me better than 1:1 and suspicious that it was not a fair coin.

We do as many flips as you like. You need to predict 200 flips, but you can wait as many flips as you like before you need to predict them. So you can predict 200 out of 10000 flips if you like to wait to find out the pattern. You need to get 58%+ of the 200 flips correctly.

Willing to bet $30k versus your $30k.

edit; can prolly get funding the size of the US national debt for this so consider the offer for any amount you like at 1:1 odds

edit2; **** it not going to lay you odds if you're so sure