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Connected Cards (NLHE) Connected Cards (NLHE)

02-18-2018 , 10:15 AM
I ran an online equity calculators to get a sense of the relative strengths of various hands versus an overpair preflop (I used AA). The results weren't always what I anticipated, so I figured I'd share them here for your thoughts. Bear in mind that these are scenarios where the overpair doesn't share a suit card with the suited connectors. In that case, the equities seemed to reduce by somewhere in the realm of 1.25%.

suited 1-gappers
2,4 = 17.78%
3,5 = 19.82%
4,6 = 21.24%
5,7 = 21.38%
6,8 = 21.66%

suited 2-gappers
2,5 = 18.19%
3,6 = 19.62%
4,7 = 19.75%
5,8 = 20.16%

suited connectors
2,3 = 17.37%
3,4 = 19.41%
4,5 = 21.44%
5,6 = 22.87%

offsuit connectors
2,3 = 13.30%
3,4 = 15.51%
4,5 = 17.70%
5,6 = 19.21%
6,7 = 19.22%

One thing that stood out to me is that suited 1-gappers are frequently considered playable straight down to 2-4, yet unsuited connectors like 5,6 and 6,7 are typically always considered unplayable. Some unsuited connectors clearly have more equity however.

Creating these equity percentages may well be a bit flawed by simply comparing against AA (who certainly would have raised pre), but putting aside other factors beyond the scope of these examples such as the table action and SPR...lets just say it's a limped pot and you don't think you're going to get back raised and you don't see value in that spot of raising yourself...if you were sitting anywhere from LJ to button, how many limpers would have to be in there ahead of you to decide the value was there to bother playing one vs another of these hands?

As an aside, another oddity is how the 2-gapper 2,5s actually appears to have more equity in this spot than 1-gapper 2,4 suited. Why do we think that is?
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02-18-2018 , 01:24 PM
First off, by asking how many limpers - you have already voided your percentages.

Those percentages are only good for heads up play. As soon as you introduce more players, your relative odds of wining go down.

However, odds of winning aren't the only calculation to consider. You have to think about implied odds.

If you have 4 limpers in front of you and you put 1 bb at risk on the button with 34o, just for sake of argument lets say that your net odds of winning (say if you wall went in preflop and you did it with 34o) fall to oh... 10% and the blinds fold. That's 4 limpers all in plus you - so assuming 100bb each, all in pre, you cant ever win long term cause you can only win 4:1 but you need 9:1.

However, 4 limpers pre (and the blinds call) puts you at 5.5:1 pre. If you can win 4 more blinds when you smash the flop hard, then you have more than enough implied odds to play that hand on the cheap and, assuming you understand what smashing the flop hard means (a flop of AK3 isn't it...) you don't risk losing much more.

So at the end of the day I'd much rather play these hands multi-way in a limped pot than 2 or 3 handed raised. Because you can murder the flop with 35o on a 246 board and get called by overpairs, draws and even sets and get paid a ton.

Of course, you can also run the nut straight into a set that fills up on the river. BTDT.
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02-18-2018 , 02:25 PM
Overlimping with offsuit and suited junk is asking for trouble. People love to play suited cards even if it is trash, so good luck playing your flush against Q2s and especially good luck flopping two pair or better. Why would you voluntarily put yourself in a situation where you have severe reversed implied odds and a disadvantage in equity? Just limp hands like A5s behind, at least then you get too cooler people yourself.
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02-18-2018 , 03:06 PM
Part of knowing how to play these hands, of course, is knowing that hitting a flush with them is NOT slamming the flop.
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02-19-2018 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGreebo
Part of knowing how to play these hands, of course, is knowing that hitting a flush with them is NOT slamming the flop.
With that ackonwledged and agreed, if hero limp-calls with, for example, 76s in late position and flops a flush, it's usually the best hand even 5 ways, and when it isn't it's just very bad luck. Sets, the naked ace or king of suit and two pair hands will put a lot of bb in the pot at most small-stakes tables. Stacks would have to be really deep for me to not want to gii with a flopped flush.
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02-20-2018 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EvilGreebo
Part of knowing how to play these hands, of course, is knowing ...
... how to fold them when you miss the Flop. STOP bluffing!
... how to fold them even if you semi-connect. STOP chasing!
... how to fold them when you get played back at, sometimes.

"Never go broke in a limped pot."

Some will argue .. and the math shows it .. that 'these' hands are better than set mining when it comes to pot odds. But they are also easier for some opponents to spot and pay you off with less than they might with a hidden set. So don't be counting your implied odds chickens/eggs too much IMO. GL
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