AA hand PF: I think it's close decision between flatting and 3betting. Certain traits of our oppponents could sway the decision one way or the other (this is where focus pays off - the more we know about our opponents, the easier it is to make decisions), but I think the main question is of the implied odds we offer our opponents. If we 4-bet, the hand becomes easy. We take the $54 pot most of the time without a fight, or we get into a great situation where we get our stack in with AA pre-flop. If we flat... we're playing a 2-4 way pot (probably at least 3-way) with bad positioning (I'll explain why our position is disadvantageous). If we flat, I think it's reasonable to assume we aren't folding post-flop.
Given our position, which is right after the squeezer who will Cbet flop a lot, but before 2 other players with heavy-PP ranges, we are either betting the flop when it's checked to us, or calling/shoving over the squeezer's Cbet. We probably can't check behind a squeezer check, with those two other guys behind us. So, we must conclude we're stacking on any flop.
I hate the fact that the other two guy's ranges are full of pocket pairs (because they cold-called, and then must flat-call another $25 raise), because since we are putting the rest of our stack in on the flop, without knowing if these guys hit their sets, THEY will only contribute post-flop when they've terribly out-flopped us with sets, or if we're lucky and they get brave with overcalls, with their middle overpairs, on the rare low flop. This consideration greatly devalues the prospect of flatting. We will find ourselves in a way-ahead or way-behind spot, and we're going to put our stack in BEFORE we know if our opponents flopped the nuts or not.
Now to the implied odds consideration. These guys will pay $25 to try and hit a set, and they are guaranteed to get our stack if they hit. Let's assume just one of these guys calls PF, hits his set, and the squeezer will Cbet half the time. The guy calls $25 in a $79 pot. Add to the pot our remaining $177 (both potential callers have us covered), plus half an $80 Cbet for $40. $79 + $177 + $40 = his $25 call will net him about $296 when he hits his set. Even if the squeezer NEVER Cbets, we subtract that $40 added money and he still makes $256 on his $25 shot. He'll hit a set about 1 in 8, so he only needs to make $200 per set to break even. We're clearly giving him a profitable set-mining situation. Where does his profit come from? Partly from the dead money already in the pot, but mostly from the fact that we're stacking off on any flop.
When my buddy showed me this hand, I was all for flatting PF in order to maximize my chances of winning a huge pot with some post-flop play, but given the reasoning above, we paint ourselves into a corner, given our poor position and the nature of the potential cold-callers hand ranges. I believe flatting is not only worse than 4betting, but may be an -EV play here given the huge edge we allow our opponent in set-mining against us. 4betting gets us somewhere between $54, and playing for stacks PF holding AA. If all my assumptions are sound, then 4betting is the clear play here.
What do you think of this reasoning? And now, as played, what lines are possible/profitable on this flop once we flat and get checked to in a 4-way pot?
Flop: (both players called the $25) K
6
2
(
$129, 4 players)
BB checks,
Hero _____