Hi all,
First post.

This is a 1-2 game.
UTG limps all fold to me on on the button and I raise to 15 with As Ac.
Blinds fold UTG calls.

Pot is 33 - rake.

Flop Td Jc Qs

UTG bets 25 ( 42 behind I have him covered).

UTG is a tight unimaginative player. My table image is tight.

Don't think we can fold here. You wouldn't expect UTG to limp-call with hands as strong as TT+ or AK, so the most likely hands we're worried about are QJ/QT/JT for two pair. Against those hands we have a bunch of outs (e.g. against QJ we still win with any A, K or T), and the villain can very well be betting with pair + straight draw hands like KQ/KJ which we beat.

you say he is tight and unimaginative.what do you think his range is for limp calling UTG?

Suited connectors and broadway cards?

If villain nails this flop donking doesn’t really fit with your analysis of being tight and unimaginative. I would expect a tight and unimaginative player to check any flop he nails. I would jus ship it and expect too see KJ, KQ, KT, J9s, 9T.. just as often as 2 pair type hands.

If villain really is tight he could even fold (terrible I know) hands that beat us because we musthave AK..

Let me add some more information.

This is a 1-2 live game and the players are pretty passive overall. I would classify this player as tight passive so I don't expect him to be pulling any big bluffs.

Because he is tight I also expect him to have a very good hand preflop. I don't think I can eliminate TT, JJ or even QQ or AK from his range just because he didn't reraise preflop.

This is the kind of spot where you can shrug and say “who cares” and pe the money in. If villain is so nutty that he must have AA beaten here beaten it’s really no big deal. We’re still crushing his strategy.

This. Put him all in and hopefully he turns over KQ. besides, from a metagame perspective, if he does have AK, show your AA and nobody who's paying attention will try to bluff you later in the session.

There's a fairly high chance you're behind, but you could also be ahead (of KQ etc), and you have outs, so just jam.

Super gross spot if we’re >100BB deep, but with so little money behind, there’s just no other way to play it than getting it in on the flop.

For a reasonable villain range such as others have postulated, Equilab shows that your aces have about 50% equity. The pot is 58 after villain bets and you have to call 25. So you need equity of 25/83 = 30% for a break-even call, clearly a call is good with EV = 16.50, assuming the hand is checked down.

For a shove, assuming villain calls,

EV = 0.5*100-0.5*67 =16.50

the same EV due to the 50% value

EV is higher if villain may fold. For example, if villain will fold to the shove 20% of the time, EV increases to 24.80. The picture shows the details

as i read it you are putting in 67 to win 100. easy fold here. based on your assessment of the player.

I prefer a smaller sizing preflop. A pot sized raise would be to $9, so I would like a raise to $10. You don't want to make the mistake of over betting the pot when you have a big hand, because then you will scare everyone out. In fact with aces I'd rather make it $7 or $8 because people will call these small raises without a second thought, and they are much more likely to "catch up" to a hand that is in bad shape against you than to a hand that beats you. If villain has say KQo he will only flop the best hand around 5% of the time.

Assuming that villain is never bluffing and always stacking off, we need on average a bit more than 40% equity here. SPR is only 2, so I feel like you do have to go with this hand. A lot of his strongest hands, like a set or the flopped nut straight, might have raised preflop, and we do have a gutter for additional equity if he has two pair or a set. And while villain definitely could have a big hand, he also might have gone for a check raise if he flopped three of a kind of a straight. I'm not excited about stacking off, but I am willing to do it.

He's on the button and there's just the one limper ahead of him. You think a raise to $10 is going to make everyone think "hmm, better grab my cards from the muck and play"?

Making it smaller preflop from BU against an UTG limper is a major mistake in a 1/2 live game.

Even if we get one of the blinds to call a smaller raise to $10 instead of having him fold to a $15 raise (which is unlikely) we are playing a $30 pot 3way compared to playing the same $30 pot heads-up.

Thanks for the responses.
I tanked for a bit and went with my instincts and folded. Looks like the majority opinion here is I should have called.