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Calculating EV In Your Head Each Time Calculating EV In Your Head Each Time

05-16-2020 , 11:21 AM
How do you easily calculate EV for each hand you play? I know the formula is "EV = (%W * $W) – (%L * $L)" but my maths skills are atrocious. Even if I was good at maths I'd still be astounded at how quickly people must be calculating this in real time. I watched a girl streaming her games on Twitch last night, she was multi-tabling and flicking between about 3 games and making her move in a matter of seconds. There is no way she could be doing the maths in her head so quickly, or am I missing something?
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05-16-2020 , 11:32 AM
You don't calculate EV in-game, that's something you can do while reviewing hands off the tables. Besides EV is only worth calculating on the river when everyone has realized their equity and there are no more draws.

Preflop-flop-turn with lots of hours of study you are gonna get to a strategy that's gonna let you play most spots in a EV+ way

On the river you have two possibilities you are the agrressor or the caller.
If you are the agrressor you have to think if you get called by 50% of worst hands in order to bet
If you are the the caller good players count combos an see if the have the pot odds based on those bluff/value combos they counted

It's really hard to count combos in-game you have you review a lot of hands and study a lot until your brain is trained enough to count combos to make it in matter of second. Same as with math that you can make a simple pot odds calculation without a calculator

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05-16-2020 , 02:51 PM
I've never calculated EV in real-time.
I just try to make decisions that I estimate will maximize my EV. i.e. I think "Is this profitable? If yes, do it. If not, don't".
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05-19-2020 , 06:55 AM
not gonna happen
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05-20-2020 , 12:12 PM
i think a much better approach is to start to think in terms of your share as a fraction of the pot. you can do this as (your hand vs opposing strategy) and or (your strategy vs opposing strategy).

basically it breaks down like this:

junk = fold and earn nothing

weak draw = calling is slightly profitable relative to folding(you win back your call plus a little extra overlay from the pot).

medium draw = calling is a little more profitable relative to folding(you win back your call plus a bigger chunk of overlay from the pot).

strong draw = calling is very profitable relative to folding(you win back your call plus a large fraction of the pot.

weak bluffcatcher = near 0ev but sometimes slightly profitable due to draw value and free showdowns(you basically break even).

medium bluffcatcher = you beat some value hands that your opponent could be betting, but not enough to raise(you win back your call plus a fraction of the pot).

strong bluffcatcher = you beat even more value hands that your opponent could be betting, but still not enough to raise(you win back your call plus a large fraction of the pot).

value hands in a betting range expressed as a fraction of the pot isn't so easy to describe as the call/fold decisions. basically the fraction you earn with value hands is a function of the sum of all of the opponent's decisions with every combo in his range. take the average share for your opponent(will be a value less than 1 but greater than zero), and subtract the average share from the pot. so if your opponent's average share is 1/4 pot when facing your bet, then your share with your betting range will be 3/4 pot. the exact fraction you earn with individual value hands is variable depending on relative strength and blocking qualities.

some very strong combos(think nut full houses and quads) earn a fraction of the pot that is higher than 1, but basically the only way to screw up these hands is to fold. so we don't need to examine this further.
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05-21-2020 , 10:22 AM


this calling hand could have either good bluffcatching qualities, good draw qualities, or both.

bluffcatching ev is essentially the money you win when you showdown the best hand. as your opponent bets more and more throughout the hand, this ev will shrink if your hand has not improved. then on the river there are two types of bluffcatcher, those that can beat potential value hands that the opponent would bet(easy call vs every opponent type except the guy that never bluffs the turn), and then there are bluffcatchers that can only beat a bluff(these are by definition 0ev bluffcatchers in equilibrium; the pie piece has shrunk to 0% pot share for the caller).

draw qualities also can cause reduction in ev as the opponent bets more and more throughout the hand, if you miss your draw. however draws will hit sometimes, and the strength of the now improved hand will cause ev spikes, which will increase your pie piece. sometimes your pie piece will effectively remain the same. this happens when straight draw turns into a combo straight and flush draw on the turn, or vice versa.

hands with both bluffcatching and draw qualities react very differently to different turn cards, river cards, and opponent types. it would be futile for me to attempt to explain the way these qualities interact without numerous examples. instead I'll just say that I basically never fold these hands except vs extremely overaggressive opponents that either bet too big for me to call, or bet too often on future streets for me to realize enough equity to make the call profitable.
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05-22-2020 , 10:51 PM
On the table you can use the gap method. So for instance you’ll have memorised a pot bet is 2:1 and a half pot is 3:1 e.t.c and you’ll also know that a flush draw is 4:1 and straight is 5:1 e.t.c and when you combine these memorised things together you get the gap method.

So villain bets half the pot at you (3:1) you have a 4:1 flush draw so the 4 minus the 3 equals 1 more bet unit required when you hit the flush.

If he bets pot that’s 2:1 and you need 4:1 so using the gap method you subtract 4 and 2 to get 2 more betting units required when you hit.

A betting unit is simply the call price that you had to make.
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