Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
What's your definition of "long run?" 1,000 hands? Tournaments are short run samples. More variance.
No, "long run" is tens of thousands of hands. I think this comparison is pretty disingenuous for a few reasons. First, one tournament start-to-end is often a couple hundred hands, though of course we can and usually do bust much earlier. In that sense, it's "short run." But a lot of people play cash sessions that are only a few hundred hands long, and some people hit the casino for a couple hours and see less than 100 hands live. Tournaments have a long run, it's just about playing more than one tournament (just like "long run" in cash is about playing more than one cash session).
But the variance in tournaments compared to cash has basically nothing to do with that. The reason tournament samples have so much more variance than cash is pretty obviously because of payout structures. In a Sunday Million you can have a range of results from losing your buyin to winning over 500 buyins. In cash there's simply no way to replicate the upside of huge tournament scores, just like there's no replication of losing 85% of the tournaments you play. But this has basically nothing to do with one tournament being a few hundred hands max.
I play hyper husngs which have maybe 10 or 15 hands per game on average, but I have much less variance than mtt players even though we play many more hands per mtt than that.