Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
Using only showdown EV math, here are two options for a small blind open knowing that if it folds to the SB, villain’s range at that point is random. Assumes Pot = 1.5
Case 1. Your hand has >50% against a random hand. The bet (in bb units) to make villain indifferent to calling or folding is as follows:
Bet = (1.5 -eq)/(2*eq -1)
Example: You hold KTo, which has 59.8% equity against a random hand.
Bet (1.5 - 0.598)/(2*0.598 -1) = 4.6bb
to make villain indifferent. A larger bet increases EV to be greater than Pot assuming villain calls.
Case 2. Your hand has < 50% equity versus a random hand. To achieve +EV,
Bet < eq/(1-2*eq)
Example: 85s has 44.5% equity against a random hand. To have +EV,
Bet < 0.445/(1-2*0.445) = 4.1bb.
EV increases with decreasing bet size. A check-check has showdown EV = eq
Since future betting will likely take place unless the bet is all-in, these results should be thought of as only a first cut look and such factors as equity realization, stack size, villain tendencies etc. have to be considered.
As mentioned by others, there is more to it than straightforward EV math. It seems an open-limp in the SB is now more prevalent than in the past possibly as a result of GTO solver analysis.
I would argue that there is so much more to it than this preliminary EV math, that it isn't even a particularly good starting point for a beginner.
In fact your post sort of suggests that we just scale our bet size preflop based on our own hand, which is not a good idea.
I think there are some excellent preflop strategy videos floating around and they would talk about all of the concepts and get you into big picture thinking, but they aren't all free unfortunately. With proper planning I bet you can get a lot of value out of a free trial somewhere though!