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Old 11-08-2007, 12:33 PM   #1
Andrew Beall
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bankroll

Hi playazzz just a little question, i have a 281 $ IN MY roll, im playing NL25and fell very comfortable with that sometimes NL50 , some people told me im playing to high .. what do u think.. txs
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:36 PM   #2
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Re: bankroll

Well you are only just over 5 buy ins at 50 so it is high risk. If you are comfortable though and are prepared to reload should disaster hit then fine.
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:43 PM   #3
Andrew Beall
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Re: bankroll

Quote:
Well you are only just over 5 buy ins at 50 so it is high risk. If you are comfortable though and are prepared to reload should disaster hit then fine.
yes nl 50 is not a good idea i know but what about nl25..
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:46 PM   #4
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Re: bankroll

not great either. i think u need like 25 buy ins for no limit minimum. so u need at least $625 to play 25NL
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Old 11-08-2007, 12:50 PM   #5
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Re: bankroll

Well bigger comfort zone but fact is I don't know how good you are. You could have a 1000 buy ins but if you are a loser it will all go.

I keep referring people to pzhon's rules on bankroll - search if he doesn't come on here.
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Old 11-08-2007, 01:30 PM   #6
stephx
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Re: bankroll

Defintly too low IMO for NL25. A 20-25 buyin minimum would be good a start. For me, a 40 buyin minimum will be required as I get nervous during the swings and a bigger bankroll helps keep me sane.
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Old 11-08-2007, 03:07 PM   #7
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Re: bankroll

The 20 buyin guideline can be a bugger. I moved up to NL25, went up 2 BI and then down 5 more [I went stoopid], so now I need to win back 7.5 BI @ NL10 just to scramble back to where I was again.

OK, I'd have no problem dipping into my piggy bank if I went bust, so my 'virtual' bank roll is much bigger than my online account. But exercising a little self-discipline now seems like a good habit to get in to for when I go [hopefully] even higher.
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Old 11-08-2007, 11:19 PM   #8
silvar_shark
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Re: bankroll

i am sitting at a 60$ roll, i play 3$ nl(fulltilt) right now and started today with 40$ made it in less then 2 hours . Will move to 10$ NL when i have at least 150$ in it. But thats cuz I will feel comfortable to play with that amount. If you make money at 25NL then keep with it, dont move to 50NL untill you have at least 750$ and feel comfortable playing there.
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Old 11-09-2007, 03:05 AM   #9
allyasia
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Re: bankroll

Quote:
i am sitting at a 60$ roll, i play 3$ nl(fulltilt) right now and started today with 40$ made it in less then 2 hours . Will move to 10$ NL when i have at least 150$ in it. But thats cuz I will feel comfortable to play with that amount. If you make money at 25NL then keep with it, dont move to 50NL untill you have at least 750$ and feel comfortable playing there.
bs
ftp don't have 3nl ring game.
the lowest is .5/.1 10nl
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Old 11-09-2007, 07:46 AM   #10
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Re: bankroll

Bankroll management is for winning players who do not want to deposit more. If you aren't sure that you are a winning player, you may need to set a budget rather than practice bankroll management.

A good way to set your bankroll requirements for many forms of advantage gambles is to use

bankroll = comfort * standard deviation^2 / win rate.

The comfort levels you accept depend on your personal risk tolerance and ability/willingness to move down when you hit a bad streak. Most people are happy with a comfort level between 2 (aggressive) and 4 (conservative). You may need to set a much higher comfort level if you are planning to withdraw almost all of your winnings. Your risk of ruin if you stay in your current game without withdrawing or learning is about e^(-2*comfort) ~ 1/7^comfort.

When you are taking a shot at a level, you can use a much lower comfort level than normal because you should be planning to move down quickly if you hit a bad streak. Set a stop loss, and move down if you lose it. Usually you should avoid playing with a comfort level lower than half of your target comfort level.

Your win rate depends on you, and the levels at which you play. No one can tell you what your win rate is. It can take a lot of hands to get an accurate estimate of your win rate from your results alone. If you don't have a long track record, then you might view the calculation as conditional, not set in stone, and revisit it as your estimates of your win rate improve. Your win rate includes any bonuses or rakeback you get on a regular basis. Regular withdrawals lower your win rate.

Your standard deviation should be measured over the same period and in the same units you used to express your win rate, whether that is big blinds/100 hands or $/hour. Standard deviation is estimated by PokerTracker (Session Notes->More Details). If you play single table SNGs, it is about 1.7 buy-ins per tournament. For multitable tournaments, the standard deviation rises with the number of players, and with your win rate. A marginal winner playing 200 player tournaments may have a standard deviation of 5 buy-ins, while solid winner may have a standard deviation in the same tournaments of 6-7 buy-ins. If you play LHE, your standard deviation is about 15 BB/100 for full ring, and 17 BB/100 for 6-max. In NLHE, standard deviation is more sensitive to your playing style, particularly in shorthanded games, but typical values are 85 big blinds/100 for full ring and 95 big blinds/100 shorthanded.

Examples:<ul type="square">
Suppose you decide you want to use comfort level 3 as a starting point, and you believe your win rate is about 15 big blinds/100 and your standard deviation is 90 big blinds/100. Bankroll = 3 * 90^2/15 = 1620 big blinds, or about 16 full buy-ins.

If you want to use comfort=3, and your win rate is 2 BB/100 and your standard deviation is 16 BB/100, then your bankroll should be 3 * 16^2/2 = 384 big blinds. (Although many people repeat "300 big blinds" and many people repeat "20 buy-ins," the latter is typically much more conservative for online low stakes games.)

If you play SNGs, and want to use the same comfort=3, and have a ROI of 15%=0.15 buy-ins and a standard deviation of 1.7 buy-ins, then your bankroll should be 3 * 1.7^2 / 0.15 ~ 58 buy-ins.

If you play MTTs, and use comfort=3, with a ROI of 50% and a standard deviation of 6 buy-ins, then your bankroll should be 3 * 6^2 / 0.5 = 216 buy-ins.[/list]The bankroll you need for a particular level of safety is sensitive to your win rate, which typically drops as you play in tougher levels, and rises if you play in softer games. Do not assume that a fixed number of buy-ins or BB is appropriate at all levels. If you are playing for pennies, 10 buy-ins may be conservative, while an expert may need 50 or 100 buy-ins to be safe in high stakes games. That high stakes professionals talk about 40 buy-in drops does not mean you need anything close to be safe in soft microstakes games. That you haven't seen a 10 buy-in downswing in low stakes games doesn't mean you are safe with 20 buy-ins in mid stakes games.

These guidelines do not depend on the number of tables you play. Multitabling does not inherently increase your risk of ruin for a given bankroll level. If your win rate drops or your standard deviation changes or for psychological reasons you require a different comfort level, then you should factor those changes into the formula.

Your bankroll represents all of the money you can afford to lose playing poker. Particularly for low stakes players, your bankroll is often not your balance. If your calculations say you should have 400 BB, you don't need 400 BB on each site you might play, and it is ok if some of the money hasn't been deposited yet.
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Old 11-09-2007, 08:46 AM   #11
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Re: bankroll

Pzhon,

Your posts are just pure class - thank you, thank you, thank you.

But can I just check that I've got this right, please:

Quote:
Suppose you decide you want to use comfort level 3 as a starting point, and you believe your win rate is about 15 big blinds/100 and your standard deviation is 90 big blinds/100. Bankroll = 3 * 90^2/15 = 1620 big blinds, or about 16 full buy-ins.

Well I thought I'd use your forumula in reverse, just to work out my current comfort level. So I used my current figures:

Win rate: 41 bb/100
[@ NL10 over past 3,000 hands. Yes, not a big enough sample, I know, and not even typical as someone just gave me 3BI in less than 50 hands with three mega-stoopid all-ins, but lets just pretend].

Std dev: 72/100 [over 20,000 hands @ NL10, NL25 and NL50]

Bank Roll: 39 BI [@NL10]

and the formula

Comfort = [BR.WR]/V

where BR = Bank Roll, WR = Win Rate, V = Variance [SD squared]

But when I plugged in the figures [39 x 41]/[72 x 72] I got a comfort value = 0.3084

Confusion - that looks real uncomfortable - and then I see that while the SD and WR in you formula are expressed in x/100 your BR was expressed in bb. So should I really have worked this out as:

comfort = [3879 x 41]/[72 x 72] = 30.7

That would look much nicer.

[And I'm real sorry this is such a really dumb question, but I'd really like to make sure I get this.]
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Old 11-09-2007, 10:34 AM   #12
pzhon
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Re: bankroll

Yes, you can compute your current comfort level by

comfort = bankroll * true win rate / (standard deviation^2).

As you note, everything on the right hand side should be expressed in the same units. You can convert everything to $, or to big blinds, or to buy-ins.

The comfort level of 31 looks like you are being quite conservative, so you might be looking at the possibility of moving up when you get more data on your win rate. However, it's natural to go above your target comfort level since the stake levels are discrete (there is no NL $17 to try en route to NL $25) and the games get tougher as you move up.

If your win rate at NL $25 expressed in $/100 is lower than your win rate at NL $10, then in the short run, it is better to play NL $10 regardless of your bankroll. You might still take shots at NL $25 with the hope that your win rate will improve, or that you will more rapidly gain the skills to beat higher levels while playing NL $25 than NL $10.

To determine when moving up is justified in the short run, you can compute the comfort level of the difference between the two levels,

differential comfort = bankroll * difference in win rates / (difference in variances)

For example, suppose you win $10/100 with a standard deviation of $80/100 at NL $100, and $15/100 with a standard deviation of $180/100 at NL $200, and suppose your bankroll is $5000. The difference in win rates is ($15-$10)/100 = $5/100, and the difference in variances is $180^2 - $80^2 = 26000 square dollars per 100 hands. Your differential comfort level is 5 * 5000 / 26000 ~ 0.96. Generally, you should move up if the differential comfort level is more than half of your target comfort level, so if your target level is 2 or greater, this says you should stick to NL $100 at the moment. This may be the case even though your comfort level at NL $200 would be 5000 * 15 / 180^2 ~ 2.3 which might be slightly greater than your target comfort level, and you would much rather play NL $200 than nothing.
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Old 11-09-2007, 11:47 AM   #13
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Re: bankroll

Wow, that's great. I really appreciate you taking the time to explain this.

Thank you.
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Old 11-09-2007, 12:31 PM   #14
Nightlight87
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Re: bankroll

Pzhon your posts are fantastic. Lots of great information thats well explained, much better than a set 20BI rule. Thanks.
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Old 11-09-2007, 12:33 PM   #15
PBiddy412
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Re: bankroll

Okay, I'm a little confused by this equation. Where does that standard deviation come from? Say I wanted to go with 4, being conservative,with a 2% roi (according to sharkscope), what would the standard deviation be?
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Old 12-01-2007, 05:57 PM   #16
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Re: bankroll

Nice post. very clear and concise. the examples i found particularly helpful . ty
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Old 03-22-2008, 02:09 AM   #17
mbl35
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Re: bankroll

This is great for geeks who understand what you're your talking about. You actually rate with numbers someones tollerance level, what are they cyborgs? I gave a guy some descent advice and then you dogged it and you actually say you know more then Chris Ferguson. You obviously know the game or at least you talk like you do. Yes my answer was simple and easy to understand and hey here's a news flash for ya. I'm a winning player who has NEVER made a redeposit and my advice was based on someone who does not want to keep reloading every week. I don't know any player who loads up online and says "I know I'm going to lose this so bankroll management doesn't matter to me if I can tolerate it? Give me a break!
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Old 03-22-2008, 03:29 AM   #18
Rek
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Re: bankroll

mbl35 - you bumped this thread to say that?
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Old 03-22-2008, 07:28 AM   #19
Nightlight87
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Re: bankroll

Thought this thread looked familiar lol. mbl35 I can't even see you giving any advice in this thread. And whether your advice was good or not doesn't change the fact that pzhons bankroll posts are pure gold.
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Old 03-22-2008, 07:33 AM   #20
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Re: bankroll

phzon you helped me alot with your info on that BR management. Thanks
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Old 03-22-2008, 09:03 AM   #21
pickpocket
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Re: bankroll

pzhon,

as much as i respect and appreciate your advice, it sometimes, can be a little hard to take in for me (im not maths expert).Is there a chart available or something that simplies this comfort zone explanation on 2+2? If not could u direct me elsewhere, where i can simplify and absorb it at my leisure. Thanks.

no disrespect,just me,lol

yours dummy
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Old 03-22-2008, 09:06 AM   #22
pickpocket
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Re: bankroll

Scrap that, ithink i got it ,sorry!
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Old 03-22-2008, 07:03 PM   #23
allyasia
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Re: bankroll

hi pzhon
a few question
1. do i use overall stats(every single level i play) or do i use current level statis?
2. also for level that i never player at, so i take shot then do the math? or is there something stardard?
say if you can beat level A NL at 10big blind, then that would assume you can beat level B NL at 5 big blind?
3.also, adding a table and droping a table
if there formula for that?
I remember last time, you post in my thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pzhon View Post
You probably should cut the number of tables you are playing. How much do you gain from the last table? Even if you are winning overall, you might be losing on the last table you add.
I am having Hard time working out the math.
i'm trying to look for the optimal spot at the right stake and right amount of the table.
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Old 07-14-2008, 12:55 AM   #24
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Re: bankroll

wow! i mean seriously..WOW. thanks alot phzon!
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Old 07-14-2008, 09:51 AM   #25
ImLiL"C"
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Re: bankroll

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rek View Post
Well you are only just over 5 buy ins at 50 so it is high risk. If you are comfortable though and are prepared to reload should disaster hit then fine.
Now thats what I'm talking about lol good advice.
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