Hi poker players,

I play poker with friends since a long time ago, but I never played online or with good poker players. I started a couple months ago, I try to read a lot on the subject and watch a ton of hands or comment on the web.

I know new players often complain about the fact they have bad beats and it doesn't seems normal, but guys I feel sooooo unlucky these days ! Running FH againts better FH or a whell againts FH or FH in quads.. you know a typical 10 minutes !

Anyway here's my question : what are the odds of running your aces in aces AND (because the AND's really important here) lose the hand because he hit a nut flush with his A of club ?

It just seems whatever I do there is no way for me to win when I hold big hands or when I flip (sorry for the whinning, ill get use to it I guess).

Well it's 1/1225 than any given opponent will have precisely the other two aces, twodimes reckons it's about 2% that the opponent wins the hand in an aces vs aces scenario

Probably a case of your big hands not actually being big hands when the money goes in. Post examples.

Sixfour has it about right for a single opponent.

Given you have AA, the chance a single opponent also has AA is (2,2)/C(50,2)=0.000816.

Assuming 8 opponents, the chance one has AA is very close to 0.0065. The chance he then hits a flush, assuming the hand goes to showdown is 2*(C(12,5)+C(12,4)*36)/C(48,5) =0.0217.The chance of both events is then the product or about 0.000142. This is equal to odds of about 7000 to 1 against.

1 in 7000 so then i'm right to feel unlucky there. Any other pocket turning into a set I'm fine with, its part of the game. This one pissed me off quite a bit.

@sixfour I don't have hands history, or I just don't know where to get them (noob alert !). But for sure I'm no pro and make bad reads. Study more and improve's the right thing to do I guess.

@statmanhal The hand went all in preflop. He went all in and I called.

Thanks for the answers guys.

Once you're all-in preflop AA vs AA, you split the pot 95.66% of the time, lose it all 2.17% of the time, and win it all 2.17% of the time.

You gotta just shrug these things off. Tons of weird/slightly annoying things like this happen when you play a high volume of hands.

@WorldxMine I know but it get to your core !

@sixfour Wont be commentating on all those but just lost an other AA on a runner runner straight. Any toughts ?


1 000$/2 000$ Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** in the bubble

Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: marc7112 ( 1 472$ )
(Hero)Seat 2: 3MIX4ME ( 22 612$ )
Seat 3: boss555R ( 10 780$ )
Seat 4: HOLTSKI14 ( 10 178$ )
Seat 5: SM422 ( 13 718$ )
Seat 6: MatzeundAngi ( 10 625$ )
Seat 7: frankalina ( 12 077$ )
(Vilain)Seat 9: hectorharry ( 27 424$ )
Seat 10: varyak5555 ( 42 860$ )

marc7112 posts small blind [1 000$]
3MIX4ME posts big blind [2 000$]
** Dealing down cards **
boss555R folds
HOLTSKI14 folds
SM422 folds
MatzeundAngi folds
frankalina folds
(Vilain) hectorharry raises [7 437$]
varyak5555 folds
marc7112 folds
(Hero) 3MIX4ME calls [5 437$]
** Dealing flop ** [ 9c, Th, 6s ]
(Hero)3MIX4ME checks
(Vilain)hectorharry bets [19 737$]
(Hero)3MIX4ME calls [14 925$]
** Dealing turn ** [ Jd ]
** Dealing river ** [ 7d ]
** Summary **
3MIX4ME shows [ Ac, Ad ]
hectorharry shows [ 8s, 8c ]
hectorharry collected [ 47 974$ ]

I guess the board wasn't good for me and maybe should have fold in case of a set.

Suck it up and keep on grinding

You have 11bb, shove pre

[ ] runner runner

Why would you slowplay AA out of position with 11bb?

This is an auto-shove PF in this spot short-stacked. The other player still would've called but once he sees the Flop he's 'really' never folding since you have too many AK/AQ types of hands that missed the Flop and he sort of connected for some additional equity.

In tournament play you want the other player to make the 'bigger' mistakes and/or just take pots down without a showdown ... not relying on the deck for survival.

AA v 88 is 20% to lose (1 of 5) ... It doesn't matter how you lose when you lose. GL

something like 53% vs 47%

Doesn't even qualify as a bad beat imo. Your opponent has two different suits to you. Sometimes the board has 4 of the same suite by the river so that's poker. Play more and losing like this will feel normal. Flatting pre is brutual here.

if you play long enough you get to see all these different unusual happenings. so when one gets you it is just all part of the big picture.

plus people remember the bad beats more than the ones that worked out well.

I didn't shove pre because I wanted to let him lead and double up. Since his bet pre was 3BB I thought ''he's gonna bet on the flop and then I go all in on a raise''

Maybe an all in pre would have made him fold his pocket I guess.

11bb in your stack should be an auto-shove.

More important for you to address this issue than whether this is a BB or not. (It is a very mild form of BB). Imho, villain ain't foldin' to a shove.

((( And it is spelled Villain )))

The bolded shows that you don't get it.

You shove 10 BB over his 3 BB open, he's almost always calling with a huge part of his range, which is what you want, since you win when he doesn't improve. When you just call, he'll fold when he misses.

Getting cute with AA is a standard mistake inexperienced players make. All-in preflop AA is a huge favorite. Once you just call, it's just 1 pair that has a hard time improving, and its equity tends to decrease on every street (which is true for most one-pair hands).

@King Spew I'm a québécois trying his best to speak in your language. But like with poker, I always try to learn with humility so thank you. + I get the fack that I should go for it when under 15-20BB.

@Kurn, son of Mogh At first, I didn't get what you were saying (begginers thread right?). So I studied on range, equity & pot odds. What I understand is that a 3BB open shows (most of the time) good cards and that even if I shove here the villain will call because 1. of his range and 2. its just a 3bet. So if I want to double up, most of the time he'll call even if I shove and since my equity's better than his, most of the time I will win ? So my angle to double up was all wrong. (Think I learn a thing or 2 today).

Question : do you always shove with AA facing 3BB open ?

always shoving with AA is never wrong but most times isnt optimal for making the most money. but when shorter stacked then shoving is right most times unless in a tournament when certain conditions apply.

No, the size of the open should have nothing to do with the strength of their hand. The point is your stack is so small that villain will be pretty much forced to call if you shove regardless of their hand, so you should shove. It's not a 3bet, it's just a raise. 3bet refers to the third bet on a given street, not the size of the bet. We're shoving here because our stack is very small, not because of the size of the open. We should be going all in with a wide range of hands in general with such a small stack.

Thanks guys I learn a lot.

@otatop First, thank you, very informative. Second, I was under the impression that range was define by bet sizes.. so now my guess is that range is define by looking at a certain player for a certain period of time and thus know what kind of cards he'll or she'll tend to play and you correlate it with the bets to have a range ? Is that correct?

De rien. Ranges for very bad players can be defined by their bet sizes but it's also one of the first things beginners learn to stop doing, so you can't trust it.

Your new guess is on the right track. The easiest thing to keep track of is just how many hands they play. If they play a lot of hands, their range is going to be much wider than if they only play a few.

In a tournament, with 20 BB or less, yes, I'm shoving over the top with pretty much my entire open-raise range vs an opponent's open raise from late position.

This type of thinking is called FPS. Fancy play syndrome.

The easiest way to build a big pot with your big hands is to get as many chips in the pot as soon as possible. Always always raise and re-raise with AA preflop. Anything else will lose you money.

Sure, sometimes people will fold and you'll lose out, but you'll win so much more the times they don't fold that it will more than make up for it.