Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
I'm just speculating here, but that's what you seem to be looking for.
I think you're most likely around a break-even player, maybe slightly winning, maybe slightly losing.
If you keep playing seriously, even with very little studying, you'll probably become a winning player, since people learn from experience.
If you study, you're going to become a winning player faster, or win more faster.
What games are you playing?
The softer the games are the less of a sample you need. Well actually the higher your win rate is the smaller a sample you need.
If you were winning at 25bb/100 over 10k hands, it would be extremely likely you're a winning player.
You're losing -5bb/100 though, which could mean anything since it's only 10k hands.
It most likely means you're a slightly losing player.
Forget about all-in ev. All it does is make you think you deserve to win more than you did.
Just work on your game and you'll become a winning player.
You'll know when you get there.
Are you playing 6 max or full ring? Zoom or regular tables?
The differences in variance are huge.
12 BI's for 6-max zoom is a joke and even the best players would have a decent chance of going broke.
12 BI's for very soft full ring regular tables is much less risky, but still not great.
Yeah I understand it's speculation, I was just trying to figure out whether it's 90% likely im a winning player or 10%, I realise it's difficult to see over 10K hands but was hoping a more trained eye could take an educated guess, and thanks, I appreciate it. I was playing 10NL 6max zoom on pokerstars for that sample. I'm currently 2 tabling 5NL zoom now just to be on the safe side. I only have one screen so i don't like having lots of regular tables open.
I see what you are saying about the winrates, it makes sense. To be specific, what I was wondering is whether the all-in EV line is the "expected winrate for my strategy", i.e. would the green line tend towards the orange line over a larger sample size - and is my green line currently deviated to the bottom of my "winrate range". Or, is the orange line completely misleading and I could well be at the top of my "winrate range" and am still not doing well. So I was trying to figure out whether the orange line could tell me anything about my "winrate range", but from what you say it sounds like it doesn't tell me anything, so I'll turn it off if that's the case.
I figure this would be known if we looked at a bunch of players' databases who do have a large hand sample, I should take a look and see if that holds true now I thought of it.