Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
No clue what you're talking about, but I do know this:
Or the other way around.
The chance of a 0bb/100 true winrate player is only 19% to achieve a winrate of 8.6bb/100 over a 10k hand sample
Again, roulette has nothing to do with this since we all know the probability of winning long term is 0.
Knowing the chance of a winrate ‘x’ player to experience result ‘y’ doesn’t by itself tell you anything about the true winrate of someone who experienced result ‘y’. Tons of people are guilty making this error including former me.
If the roulette example doesn’t make things click then you think too differently from me I guess. Google Baye’s Theorem.
It’s definitely not guaranteed that anybody, even a theoretically perfect player, is actually a winning player in a particular game. You could probably find some horrible take trap formats where winning isn’t possible.
One more thing I want to say is that anyone who is even asking the question OP is asking is already ahead of most players.