AKo a fold versus 4bets at 2nl or sample to small? - Beginning Poker Questions

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AKo a fold versus 4bets at 2nl or sample to small?

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07-16-2020 , 06:20 AM

dude45

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

I have around 400k hands on the overall population on 2nl at ACR. I just looked at my DB and saw that JJ and AK are getting crushed in 4 bet pots. So I got curios and looked to see what population is 4betting with. It's QQ+ which seems rather tight but even if I add AK to the populations 4betting range AK is still in pretty bad shape.

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07-16-2020 , 07:56 AM

M1ndCtrl

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 78

I would think 4-bet = premium pretty often sans the droolers at NL2 since the 3-betting isn't all that high to begin with.

But it depends. Are you calling a 4-bet (or 5bai) or are you the one 4-betting. Plus, there's a difference between say BvB or BU vs blinds (which is often a standard gii spot) as opposed to facing a 4-bet from UTG.

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07-16-2020 , 12:45 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,754

This seems hugely dependent on how you play it postflop

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07-16-2020 , 04:06 PM

dude45

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Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

When getting 4bet I mix between calling and 5betting which is usually a shove. In 4 and 5 bet pots AK is my bluffing counterpart to aces and kings. I would say I play AK even more aggro then kings depending on position. IE I 5 bet it more often. In a nutshell I know 5bets can't always be KK+. You need a bluffing hand to balance things out and AK seems like a good candidate.

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07-16-2020 , 04:46 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,103

If someone opens and you 3bet to 10bb and are facing a 4b then any action resulting in an overall net EV of > -10bb/1 hand (-1000bb/100) is better than folding.

Make sure you understand what you're looking at.
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For example, calling 3bs are almost always going to be negative. If you filter your database for "called 3b" you are like losing like -200bb/100 or something depending on what your RFI sizing is. For example, you RFI for 3bb, well then if you fold then you're -300bb/100, but if you call and get -200bb/100 you're better off calling rather than folding.

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07-16-2020 , 06:13 PM

dude45

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Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brokenstars

Thanks never actually about it in the sense that calling or raising may be bad but still better then folding.

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07-16-2020 , 07:16 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude45

Thanks never actually about it in the sense that calling or raising may be bad but still better then folding.

Yes, I'd recommend you post the overall bb/100 and the filter used. Some other stats that might be relevant:

3b success (by position)
4b success (by position)
5b success (by position)

or something along those lines. Should give you an idea of how often people fold to 3b/4b/5b. These are all generally quite low at lower stakes.

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07-18-2020 , 11:35 AM

dude45

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

ok the get population stats
1 all player reports
2 player is hero (not selected)
3 i used the any 4bet or 5 bet filter

over close to 400K hands the pop has 4bet 22 times never worse then Qs

Thats how i got the pops 4betting range

to see how i do when my 3bet with AK0o faces a 4bet
1 any 3bet
2 second action call. I know that would include hands where its 5 bet before it gets back around to me but i dont know how to filer for hands where i specifically 3 bet and called a 4bet.

ran a separate filter for when i 5bet shove
1 any 3bet
2 second action raise

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07-21-2020 , 04:51 PM

meekrab

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,784

Is that 400k played hands or 400k total player-hands? (so roughly 60-70k actual hands played?) 22 4bets over that number of hands seems ludicrously low and I think you could very safely assume it's always AA/KK and play accordingly.

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07-25-2020 , 10:17 AM

#10

dude45

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by meekrab

Total player hands

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07-26-2020 , 08:31 PM

#11

TheDefiniteArticle

Indecisive

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 14,123

22 4bets over 400k hands isn't just low, it's so low that I'm almost certain there's a problem with the data. for context, I wouldn't be surprised if I 4bet 22 times in a 2-3k hand session (if I kept rolling high)

could you post the stats you're relying on OP?

edit: on very rough maths, a 6max game in which only AA/KK are ever 3bet or 4bet, with a super-nitty average open frequency of 10%, still sees an average of about 83 4bets over 400k hands. A normal game I'd expect to see, with those numbers being about 20%, 10% and 5% sees the number of 4bets increase to about 6,000 over 400k hands.

Last edited by TheDefiniteArticle; 07-26-2020 at 08:37 PM.

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07-28-2020 , 07:20 AM

#12

dude45

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

yea guess i messed up / I think the filter i used filtered for 5bets. so i tried this

1 player is hero not selected
2 Any 4 bet .
using those filters the population has 4 bet 1185 times. I assume you calculate 4bet percentage by dividing how many times they 4bet by how many opportunities the had to 4bet. IE how many 3bets they faced. SO 1185/7945=0.14898. so not sure how i messed up before. I have a suspicion though.

Last edited by dude45; 07-28-2020 at 07:30 AM. Reason: more content

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07-28-2020 , 07:41 AM

#13

dude45

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 2,807

Still getting crushed when i 4 and 5 bet AKo.

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07-28-2020 , 08:42 AM

#14

TheDefiniteArticle

Indecisive

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 14,123

I think it's variance, in short.

I reckon your sample for ('Hero 4bets' OR 'Hero 5bets') AND 'Hero's hand = AKo' is probably pretty minimal, and given I expect 2NL regs are probably too tight on average, I expect a lot of your profit with those AK 4b/5b hands to come from your white whales where a fish stacks A3o

Also worth noting that if we've already bet a 3bb open we're profiting if we're doing better than -300bb/100, and -900bb/100 for a 9bb 3bet.

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07-30-2020 , 05:21 PM

#15

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,700

If you have a very nitty population you can probably just go ahead and fold AKo to 4bets. That doesn't mean you shouldn't 4bet it yourself though.

I routinely fold AKo in LLSNL to 4bets, since IME a 3bet is usually premiums and a 4bet is usually KK+ or AK/KK+ from friskier players.

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