Hey guys I've moved down to 25nl zone with about a $700 br after playing under rolled at 50nl for around 5,000 hands. During the 5k hands I was playing 18/12/5 and was winning at 15bb/100 when I decided to move down just to be more conservative with my br and definitely acknowledging I was on a heater. Also I can get 5x as many hands on a zone table as a reg table which will help me learn more and I can learn how to play a balanced strategy against a population rather than exploit weaker players at reg tables.

The problem is that I am getting absolutely smoked at 25nl zone. I've played around 5k hands and I am down 13 buy ins already. I'm playing 20/16/7.7 and It seems whenever I triple barrel I get jammed on the river and whenever I call 3 barrels with KQ I am almost always shown AK or AQ. When I call a triple barrel with ATs on T562Q I will be shown an over pair. It's extremely frustrating because it seems the only way I am winning money is if I flop a monster. All my thin value bets get raised and all my TPGK bluff catchers are dominated. It seems I am getting 3-bet almost 33% of the time, when I 4-bet bluff I get jammed on and when I call with a marginal hand like AQs, KQs,TT-88 I am always dominated and will just fold to a double barrel.

Is it just me or do they ALWAYS have it in 25nl? I'm getting the point where I feel like I should just fold unless I have nutted hands. I'm about to start folding 33% PSB on the flop with second pair top kicker. On top of this when I make a draw on the river they ALWAYS check/fold to anything greater than a 50%PSB.

Anyways I can probably chalk this up to 30% running bad and 70% lacking the adjustments required at this stake. Any suggestions? Should I just start playing a ultra-nit strategy? I would move down to 10nl zone but Bovada does not offer 10nl zone and those tables run ridiculously slow.

Another thing I should mention: It seems I am playing relatively good in small pots but in 3-bet/3 barrel pots. I am losing massively unless I have a monster hand.

I don't really have much of value to help you here since I'm playing lower but I can relate. I was running good at 10nl exploiting bad players who definitely shouldn't be playing 10nl even though I acknowledge I probably shouldn't be playing 10nl either but was on a massive heater. I've dropped to 5nl and am now struggling to adjust as well which is frustrating because I was beating 5nl before moving up. Probably short term variance and I could play a little more nitty in certain spots but it feels like a bit of a step backwards psychologically.

unless you're playing full ring you're already playing an ultra-nit strategy haha

this feels like standard-ish variance, but post some hands where you're not sure

I very much doubt there is a significant difference in population strats between 50NL and 25NL

The problem is, 5k hands is nothing. 13buyins is alot but you can (& will) go on crazy runs, good & bad in that space of time. And it happens more often than people imagine it will. Sounds like this is just one of those infuriating times where they *always* have a hand but you did just win, what 7,8 buyins(?), at the level above in the same timeframe.

Regs in this format play tighter than normal regs at 25 or 50NL but you're playing tight yourself so I don't think that's the problem.

One huge leak I noticed is that I am not opening the button or cut off as much as I should. My PFR from the CO and Button is only like 4-5% higher than UTG. I started adding some suited gappers and Kxs, Axs hands to my ranges and I definitely improved my win rate.

One issue is that I was just trying to see as many hands as possible so I'd see K4s, KJo, A7o and just fold it regardless of position and clearly that's a huge mistake. So I'm starting to defend more against CO/Button opens as well as open those positions more often 23% CO and 40% button

Another thing I believe I am doing badly is calling 3-bets too often and cold calling in the small blind with hands that should be folded or 3-bet such as KQo or 76s

As for an example hand here is one that had me pretty frustrated

Button (100bb) opens for 3bb, hero(100bb) 3! to 12bb from SB w/ 65s, button calls

flop(15bb) A65r. Hero bets 6bb, villain goes all in 88bb effective, I call

he shows AKo turn is an A. Obviously this is just a bad beat but I honestly thought for a while before I called this. I was expecting to be beat when I called especially when he just snap shoves for 6x pot.

Another one: V&H 100bb effective
Hero opens Low jack with QQ, SB 3! to 12 bb I call. I elect to flat because I am in position against what I perceive to be a wide 3! range in the SB vs LJ open.

Flop(25bb) T27ss SB checks and I put out a 8bb bet that looks like a probe to get calls from 87s,76s,99,88,66-33. and put AKo,AQo,KQo in a marginal spot. I think if he had JJ,AA,KK,AsKs, JTs, ATs he'd C-bet this 100% of the time. He calls as I expected.

Turn(41bb):3o. SB checks, Hero: bets 40bb. SB calls. I want to put massive pressure on his depolarized range and this is a spot where I can bluff with nut flush draws and will be betting my sets and overpairs in this fashion to get calls from his strong hands and fold out hands that have A high beat but aren't comfortable playing for stacks.

River(121bb): To. SB checks, Hero all in for 40bb. SB calls with KTs.

I felt like the T was a lot better for me than for him and TT was definitely a hand that would elect to trap this flop so with only one combo or TT out there and having a 1/3 PSB left behind I only had one choice. However I think being in position it's a little better to check behind sometimes.

I started at 5nl and at least in my experience, you gotta just play ABC TAG. There are so many people there just begging to give away their money. And the simple fact that people are willing to give away money leads to you facing more bad beats. Like when you get shoved on with AJo or 44 and they crack your AA and KK

I play on bovada and I found that over-limping with hands that flop strong is very profitable. You're almost guaranteed to stack someone who flops TPGK when you have a set in a multiway pot. When you're on the button with 22,33, 54s, A2s and facing 2 limpers you gotta over limp and call a raise from the blinds when the limpers also call.

Then again I only played 15k hands at 5nl

I feel like I'm too confident Post flop from playing a lot of 10 NL previously which leads to me calling too many 3-bets and 3-betting light a little too much. I could be over confident in myself at 25nl considering what you said. I Just won 1000bb at 50nl over 5k hands. Maybe I'm playing too reckless post flop as a result

I am sure variance is playing a part in your results. That doesn't mean you are necessarily playing well. 5K hands is hardly enough to determine if you are a winning player a losing player or a breakeven player. I have had 5k stretches where I run up 15BIs. And some where I lost close to the same. I had a 14K stretch where I ran up 34BIs and paid for it the next 50K hands breaking even. The point is variance will even itself out at some point as you converge towards your winrate. Your winrate at Zone will be lower than regular games so a lower winrate will make variance even more brutal.

I have around 600K at 5NL Zone and around 60k at 25NL. While 60k is still a little low, I can tell you that there isn't much difference between the RFI, 3b stats between the two limits. I can tell you that the populations 3b stats are far from high and what is considered optimal. If you are getting threebet at a ridiculously high rate then it might be you hitting a bad patch of variance or it might just seem this way. To be honest, I thought I was getting pushed around when I moved up to 25NL. When I decided to go to showdown I was running into big hands. After I put in a little more volume, I saw that I had just hit a bad patch of variance and the numbers were almost the same as the 5NL zone game.

You can play alot looser as RFI. 4-6% higher than UTG from CO and BTN is very low. You can be in the upper 20s for CO and at least 40 when folded to you on BTN. Population is not going to 3bet you near enough. Get your ranges down pat then if you have a playable hand, wait and see if its folded to you. Sometimes it will and you can open, sometimes it won't and you might have to fold. If im sitting on the button with A7o, K4s, and KJo im waiting to see if its folded to me.

Next adjustment I'd recommend is threebetting more. Population is not 4betting enough. Don't take this to mean to threebet garbage. The population continues way to wide than they should, as such you can get a lot of value.

Next adjustment, opt for a 3bet or fold strategy outside of the BB. Rake is high and small pots are getting raked at 5%. You don't hit the cap until you get $40 in the middle. Opt for lines that take down the pot preflop more often.

If they "always have it" then it sure seems like variance, especially if we're talking just a 5k hand sample. Seems like you're getting frustrated and wanting to over adjust to compensate when in reality they can't always have it obv. 10+ BI downswings aren't really that uncommon either, especially on fast tables where you can't table select and bumhunt appropriately.

Could you go over the last part. 3bet or fold strategy seems doable but I have no idea what kind of ranges to be using for that strategy. How would you respond to an utg open when you are in position with something like KQo, TT, 99, 88, QJs, T9s-65s. I feel like it's definitely profitable to be doing that with certain hands in certain positions but the middling and bottom part of my range would put me in a lot of weird spots where folding or 3-betting seems inferior to just cold calling.

One example I can think of would be facing a non-button open in the small blind with a hand like 99. I'd have a tremendous problem folding this hand but would also be hesitant to 3-bet it as the flop will be higher than 9, what like 75% of the time? Sure we can rep a strong range but 3! from the small blind is so frequent that our villain would have a hard time believing us and we'll be OOP to everyone who tags along

I've played 35k hands so far at 25nl and have brought my win rate up to 2bb/100 which I am pretty proud of but definitely want to improve this as I approach 100k hands. Also I think Pokeit might be botching my VPIP and PFR stats. It says I am playing an 18/12.7/5.5.

I'm opening 13.5% UTG, 18% MP, 24% CO, 47.5% D, 36.3% SB. So I really don't understand how my stats look so tight-passive. I've really been trying to limit my Cold calling since reading your post.

Regs are better, fishes are more aggressive and a little bit less prone to throw away money.
Other than that, yes, you are not supposed to make huge adjustments if you were playing a winning game.

I'm 3 betting 99 from SB even vs a UTG open (6max). You could profitably flat here but I don't flat often from the SB. If there have been something like a UTG open and a couple callers I'm more prone to call than squeeze as I am less likely to take the pot down preflop. The argument to 3bet or fold from small blind based on BB squeezes is not that great at 5 and 25NL Zone as BBs do not squeeze enough; however, I do it based on rake. I am paying about 5bb/100 less in rake preflop than the population in 25NL Zone due to threebet or folding vs calling 2bets like the majority of the population does.

You can three bet as high as 50% of the PFRs opening range IP and 33-40% OOP. From the button I am opening up even wider. My 3b vs CO is in the neighborhood of 14%.

Don't take this to mean that you need to go start spewing stacks 3betting as you will get called about 50% of the time and 4bet around 10% so you will need to develop and get comfortable with postflop play in low SPR pots with wider ranges. I'd start out by just widening your ranges a little bit and and go from there. Start studying some of the spots you are cold calling and change the assumption to you 3bet PF and the PFR called. You take a flop. What do you do in different situations. Study the spots away from the table and you will be surprised how much better you get and comfortable you get.