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AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? AA vs set... Cooler or bad play?

02-13-2019 , 08:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
First one, I would do it with 88+, AQ+, maybe KQs. With a VPIP of 20% that must be it?

Second Villain, his range looks wide, but its only 61 hands. Maybe A2s+, 22+, etc.?
Lesson One: work on your ranges. When you say:

88+....you are including AA and KK (maybe QQ and JJ).

AQ+...you are including AKs, AQs

(Lesson 2: when you comeback with a better range for villain(s) that doesn't include the hands villain would raise or reraise....this is called having a capped range)

So not many suited connectors...and why only A2s+ for the PF bet/calling MP and not the CO. Look at their stats and think about ranges a bit more please
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 08:21 PM
I'll make it simple for you - if I count it right there is 30 BB in the pot, preflop. MP has 74 left, CO has 91. The SPR with MP is right about 2.5, (with CO it is 3) and the board isn't very scary. You have an overpair and there really is no way you are going to fold. You only lose to a set, or a very unlikely two pair or straight. Just look at the MP - he overcalled it all with tens - surely someone with AQ, KQ, KK might have also.

I probably don't bet as much on the flop, because I want to be called by worse, including flush draws. But it really doesn't matter - you have three streets to get value, and you got it done in two. With these stack depths, there is very little chance you are ever folding and very little chance the stacks don't get in.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 08:53 PM
OK, OK, but the actual hand, what should I have done?

Someone said to bet less... but don't I need to protect my hand?

I just played a hand when I had KK and on a T62r I bet only 1/3 and V called with nearly nothing only to get the ace on the turn. Shouldn't I make em pay when they are drawing?

Last edited by baal666; 02-13-2019 at 09:12 PM.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
OK, OK, but the actual hand, what should I have done?
You can get closer to an answer to this yourself if you get a more reasonable range for each villain...and then plug the ranges and your hand into an equity calculator.

Then it becomes a math problem that would include factors like stack sizes, pot size and fold equity. I wouldn't do the work for you.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces
I'll make it simple for you - if I count it right there is 30 BB in the pot, preflop. MP has 74 left, CO has 91. The SPR with MP is right about 2.5, (with CO it is 3) and the board isn't very scary. You have an overpair and there really is no way you are going to fold. You only lose to a set, or a very unlikely two pair or straight. Just look at the MP - he overcalled it all with tens - surely someone with AQ, KQ, KK might have also.

I probably don't bet as much on the flop, because I want to be called by worse, including flush draws. But it really doesn't matter - you have three streets to get value, and you got it done in two. With these stack depths, there is very little chance you are ever folding and very little chance the stacks don't get in.
Thanks
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
You can get closer to an answer to this yourself if you get a more reasonable range for each villain...and then plug the ranges and your hand into an equity calculator.

Then it becomes a math problem that would include factors like stack sizes, pot size and fold equity. I wouldn't do the work for you.
OK, I'll check, but even if I get an idea of their range, how would that help me decide how to bet my overpair? I already know for sure they have good hands (at least the one with good stats).
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-13-2019 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
OK, I'll check, but even if I get an idea of their range, how would that help me decide how to bet my overpair? I already know for sure they have good hands (at least the one with good stats).
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
Then it becomes a math problem that would include factors like stack sizes, pot size and fold equity. I wouldn't do the work for you.
We (collectively...all the BQ regulars that are here to help.) will walk you through some of the math. I'm very rusty as I don't play NL any more so probably someone else will step up once you have equities worked out (Equilab, right?)
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
If we know you lost the hand people may think how you could have played to not lose the hand or lose less in the hand, whereas if we don't know what happened we can suggest a line that makes the most profit for you. Even if that would have lost you the hand anyway
what if OP balances his posts by putting spoilers/misleading titles where he actually wins the hand. he could conceivably do spoilers this way, and, if he maintains proper frequencies, you'd never really know. thoughts?
;;;;;;;;;

as vbaces mentioned, its about SPR. if your spr is <3 or so im stacking off with aces no question.

Last edited by LordPallidan12; 02-14-2019 at 02:12 AM.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
You are playing off villain's entire range.

Inflection point of this hand may be turn. SO:

Please give a range that YOU would called a 3B preflop and then a flop continuation bet as the CO did. You have stats
VPIP: 21.01, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 239

Please give a range that YOU would CALL a 3B after betting preflop, getting raised with a call behind as MP did. You have stats
VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 18.33, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 61
OK on Equilab...

PFR 12 = 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+
PFR 18 = 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+

I think AA and KK are extremely unlikely because they would have reraised. At NL2 AK is a possibility as people usually don't go all-in preflop with this.

Now what can I do with this information?
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
Now what can I do with this information?
Put yourself in villain's shoes and ask yourself which range you'd flat the 3-bet with.
Then think about which hands you'd continue with OOP vs a big c-bet. You can plug that range into Equilab and see how it's doing vs AA on the turn.

FWIW, experience tells me that AA is always playing for stacks on this runout vs someone that doesn't have a full stack, but I think the flop bet is too big. I want to get value from AQ, KQs, some FDs and hands like JJ/TT.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Put yourself in villain's shoes and ask yourself which range you'd flat the 3-bet with.
Then think about which hands you'd continue with OOP vs a big c-bet. You can plug that range into Equilab and see how it's doing vs AA on the turn.

FWIW, experience tells me that AA is always playing for stacks on this runout vs someone that doesn't have a full stack, but I think the flop bet is too big. I want to get value from AQ, KQs, some FDs and hands like JJ/TT.
Shouldn't I bet big to protect my hand against the flush draw and deny odds for getting the card that give him a flush?
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 03:03 PM
You can't "protect" your hand from flush draws, unless you make a ridiculous overbet. Villain is always going to call with flush draws vs a bet of up to pot-sized. Ideally you want him to call on the flop and then have a horrible spot on the turn when you jam and he doesn't quite get the right odds.
In the modern game, you maximize EV with certain parts of your range by getting CALLED by worse, not by making it fold. I frequently bet one third of pot, because I want villain to stick around with loads of worse hands. With AA, I want value, not protection.
And it's not just flush draws you're targeting. Stop obsessing about those. A typical villain might have less than 10 combos of flush draws on that flop. I'm more concerned about getting value from the 24 combos of JJ-88. The weaker pairs (which you absolutely crush) won't call a bomb on the flop.
In effect, by bombing the flop, you fold out all the really low equity hands, and mostly only get called by the higher equity hands (sets, TP, FDs).

Your line in this hand isn't bad though. It's just the flop sizing is a bit too big. You'll make JJ-88 fold to any turn shove, but you need to bet smaller on the flop to make sure they give you some value before they fold.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 03:05 PM
Protection is overrated
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
And, seriously, who cares if it's a cooler?
+1
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
You can't "protect" your hand from flush draws, unless you make a ridiculous overbet. Villain is always going to call with flush draws vs a bet of up to pot-sized. Ideally you want him to call on the flop and then have a horrible spot on the turn when you jam and he doesn't quite get the right odds.
In the modern game, you maximize EV with certain parts of your range by getting CALLED by worse, not by making it fold. I frequently bet one third of pot, because I want villain to stick around with loads of worse hands. With AA, I want value, not protection.
And it's not just flush draws you're targeting. Stop obsessing about those. A typical villain might have less than 10 combos of flush draws on that flop. I'm more concerned about getting value from the 24 combos of JJ-88. The weaker pairs (which you absolutely crush) won't call a bomb on the flop.
In effect, by bombing the flop, you fold out all the really low equity hands, and mostly only get called by the higher equity hands (sets, TP, FDs).

Your line in this hand isn't bad though. It's just the flop sizing is a bit too big. You'll make JJ-88 fold to any turn shove, but you need to bet smaller on the flop to make sure they give you some value before they fold.
I understand what you wrote but how to deal with the old advice to make them pay for their draws? Of course there are more combos of hands without a flush draw but if he has a draw wouldn't 1/3 bet be too cheap a price? OK I understand he is more likely to fold on the turn, but still, seems strange to make such a small bet with a flush draw on the board...
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-14-2019 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Your line in this hand isn't bad though. It's just the flop sizing is a bit too big. You'll make JJ-88 fold to any turn shove, but you need to bet smaller on the flop to make sure they give you some value before they fold.
He got an idiot to overcall the turn shove with TT though so I guess this shove prints money.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-15-2019 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
I understand what you wrote but how to deal with the old advice to make them pay for their draws?
I mostly ignore old advice, because the game doesn't play like it used to. (There are fewer calling stations than when poker was at its peak).
Except in the softest games at the lowest stakes, players are tighter and just better in every way than they used to be. Players that didn't adapt to newer/better strategies went busto.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-15-2019 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
I mostly ignore old advice, because the game doesn't play like it used to. (There are fewer calling stations than when poker was at its peak).
Except in the softest games at the lowest stakes, players are tighter and just better in every way than they used to be. Players that didn't adapt to newer/better strategies went busto.
So... We give them nearly free cards so they can beat us on later streets? I don't understand...
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-15-2019 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
So... We give them nearly free cards so they can beat us on later streets? I don't understand...


Well the big thing is that u want to put opponents on a range of hands that contains more than just draws etc


Also, it’s not even the worst thing if bet a size that gives your opponent correct odds to call with a draw.

Ex. You’re heads up in a pot, u both have some equity share of the pot. By betting large to deny equity from the draw u can force opponent to relinquish their equity share so u get 100% of the pot, by betting smaller and get called u get less than 100% of a larger pot

Last edited by hyperknit; 02-15-2019 at 10:56 PM.
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-16-2019 , 05:49 AM
His line & sizing is fine. Yeah, he should make it slightly less on the flop but advising a bet of 8 or 9 blinds is absolutely horrendous strategy on a draw heavy board 3way.

You cant get away here. Sometimes, you've just gotta get stacked
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote
02-16-2019 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by baal666
So... We give them nearly free cards so they can beat us on later streets? I don't understand...
In this spot, the choice isn't between bombing it and "giving free cards". The decision is on sizing. A smaller bet can often have a higher EV than a large one.

Newbies are obsessed with "protecting" their hands and denying the right odds to draws. Advanced players are more concerned with maximizing EV, and sometimes that comes from betting huge and sometimes it doesn't.

To use an extreme example, you don't open shove AA pre-flop, because there's a higher EV in getting called by hands you crush with a normal raise. Post-flop is a bit like that. You can sometimes maximize your EV by making a small flop bet that gets called by a wide range, and then you can bomb the turn when villain is caught in no-man's land, where he realizes he's probably losing and doesn't have the right price to continue, but feels "pot-committed".
AA vs set... Cooler or bad play? Quote

      
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