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Old 08-12-2017, 03:11 PM   #1
SharkytheFish
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25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Is there anything I should do differently here.

Villain 75 hands: 43/33/2.2/14.7

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

CO: $7.46 (29.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $25.97 (103.9 bb)
SB: $56.89 (227.6 bb)
BB: $53.89 (215.6 bb)
MP: $26.10 (104.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.75) 3 7 K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.65, SB raises to $7.95, Hero calls $5.30

River: ($20.15) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $16.25, Hero folds
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Old 08-12-2017, 04:11 PM   #2
Fatboy54
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Villain 43/33

I am never folding.
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Old 08-12-2017, 06:40 PM   #3
WereBeer
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

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Originally Posted by Fatboy54 View Post
Villain 43/33

I am never folding.
Agree. K8/K3ss forms part of villain's range IMO.
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Old 08-13-2017, 01:49 AM   #4
Ray Zee
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

if you are going to fold it should have been on the turn.
however your hand actually got better with the board pairing.
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Old 08-13-2017, 05:09 AM   #5
SharkytheFish
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Thanks, I'm satisfied I mis played it. Villain isn't repping much that beats me and can easily overplay K8/K3 on this board.
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Old 08-13-2017, 01:20 PM   #6
ArtyMcFly
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Only eight combos of value hands make any sense (77, 88, 87s, 33), but villains with stats like that are prone to overplaying top pair, especially if they have a draw to go with it. Turn check-raises are usually monsters, but I wouldn't be too surprised if villain is getting out of line with hands like KJcc/KTcc/K9cc, or K8s or even K3s, or indeed any king. It's pretty close, but I would call.
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Old 08-13-2017, 04:49 PM   #7
Ray Zee
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

yes too many hands he can have you beat. he also plays any king suited and maybe any king at all. who knows. and would he riase here with a big king. possibly so.

some hands you are just blind in and trying to pin some opponents down doesnt work. so you have to look at your hand and decide to go for it or not.
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Old 08-13-2017, 04:51 PM   #8
Ray Zee
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

but with him to your left i would have opened much larger and over bet the pot on each street so i was closer to all in on the end or all in on the end.

against players that can have almost anything i dont want smaller pots where they can run me off later on when i have the best hand and they are bluffing or think they have the best hand and dont. especially with one pair hands that are best early on for sure.
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Old 08-13-2017, 05:06 PM   #9
Kelvis
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

The problem with this is that we don't know how he plays hands postflop. He could be doing this with only sets or only with bluffs or anything in between. Looking at how many hands you should be value betting against him (any king basically and perhaps some stupid 8x you managed to bet flop with) AA is pretty high up there. Don't know exactly but with the odds you're getting I don't think AA is close to the hand you can start to fold without reads. KQ, although basically the same hand in value, is way closer because you block hands he can overplay for value like KJ/KT.
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Old 08-13-2017, 05:41 PM   #10
Fatboy54
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

With 75 hands we don't know what sort of fish villain is, but we do know villain is (very probably) a fish and fish make mistakes postflop. Typically...

They over value and over play top pair.
They turn good sd into bluffs.
They tilt/misread the river in big pots.

All three are in play in this hand.

so...

Quote:
I don't think AA is close to the hand you can start to fold without reads
this
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Old 08-13-2017, 05:51 PM   #11
SharkytheFish
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee View Post
but with him to your left i would have opened much larger and over bet the pot on each street so i was closer to all in on the end or all in on the end.

against players that can have almost anything i dont want smaller pots where they can run me off later on when i have the best hand and they are bluffing or think they have the best hand and dont. especially with one pair hands that are best early on for sure.
I find this interesting but it seems like a questionable strategy. Surely you should be sizing bets primarily for value or to fold out better. If villain makes a bet on a later street that you feel may be a bluff then you can make a decision as to whether or not to call at that stage. What you'r suggesting is tantamount to betting more to avoid being outplayed on a later street.
Sometimes I do overbet the pot hu with an overpair but it has to be against a specific opponent type and on a certain board texture.
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Old 08-13-2017, 06:06 PM   #12
SharkytheFish
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray Zee View Post
but with him to your left i would have opened much larger and over bet the pot on each street so i was closer to all in on the end or all in on the end.

against players that can have almost anything i dont want smaller pots where they can run me off later on when i have the best hand and they are bluffing or think they have the best hand and dont. especially with one pair hands that are best early on for sure.
I find this interesting but it seems like a questionable strategy. Surely you should be sizing bets primarily for value or to fold out better. If villain makes a bet on a later street that you feel may be a bluff then you can make a decision as to whether or not to call at that stage. What you'r suggesting is tantamount to betting more to avoid being outplayed on a later street.
Sometimes I do overbet the pot hu with an overpair but it has to be against a specific opponent type and on a certain board texture.
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Old 08-13-2017, 06:40 PM   #13
Ray Zee
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Re: 25nl, AA on paired board, Call river shove from sb?

it is against a specific type of opponent.... and you get outplayed not by him but by yourself as you cannot make the best decisions when his range is infinite.
if he has anything decent he is going for it all. so why mess around and give him great odds to hit something with a hand he wont lose anything with. that is good for all opponents in many cases you dont have a read on.

he is 100 bb deep here so is around the point where he is likely to lose more than he can win if he plays slowly and gets out drawn.
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