Hi all,

Hero: only recently moved up to 2/4 (no-limit game). In 1/2 I was usually one of the better players at the table. Here I'm definitely not. However, the better players aren't going out of their way to get involved in pots with me, and it's clear where the money is coming from. Those players involve themselves enough in pots that the money is flowing. I'm confident I'm playing like a nit and have that image.

Villain: Sat down about an hour ago. Competent from my point of view. At this point he hasn't got to showdown but he's taken down pots. Still, he's called a few preflop raises and given up on the flop. But haven't played long enough, maybe he's just been getting PP.

Hero (EUR 425) is on BTN with 66. UTG (money fountain) straddles to 8, villain (has me covered) calls in EP-3, CO (best player at the table) calls, I call, SB folds and BB (weak-tight) calls.

Flop (40): J64r. Checks around.
Turn (40): J (board is still rainbow). Checks to CO who bets 20, I call, Villain raises to 76, CO folds, I go all-in. Villain tanks for about 1 minute and folds.

Pre-flop: I called instead of raising because the blinds were likely to call, I didn't feel enough players would fold, and honestly I was hesitant to get involved in a pot against CO. I didn't feel set-mining against him would be profitable as he wouldn't necessarily pay me off or that I'd be able to knock him off a better hand.

Flop: I didn't bet because I felt on that texture I'd fold everyone out.

Turn: I considered calling with the intention of getting it in on the river. However, I put him on JJ, 44, and trips-J (AJo, KJ-J7s). At the time, I felt that virtually any card would be "scary" (4 or 7+) and that a lot of his range wouldn't bet or call a bet on the river. I'm questioning that now.

After his bet I had about 340 behind, so any sizeable raise (to 225 for example) would have left me with an awkward amount. A good player knows the rest of the stack is going in so it's equivalent to an all-in, so I went all-in on the chance he'd call with AJ or 44.

Thanks in advance.

Bet flop, you are 5 ways with the effective nuts and at least one fun player in the hand, get some money in.

Pre is not debateable.

I shove turn too, hopefully he has trips and can't fold.

Agree

[x] You're on the button.
[x] You have a set multiway.
[ ] You should check back.

It should be illegal to check there. You're missing out on so much EV. Indeed, you're pretty much asking for someone to suck out. Imagine someone has 77 and binks a bigger set, or someone has 87 and hits a 5. You should be betting your hand for value and protection.

Ironic, I hate when people slowplay and here I am guilty of the same. Thought I was asking a question aboit the turn. Thanks, guys

Hand plays much better with a flop bet.

As played, you overbet shove. (340 into 136) You have a nitty image. Villain is competent. Uhhhhhhhhh........

As played, what is the alternative to shoving?

With my nitty image....

You can flat the raise because you have position. If he has trips, he will bet the river for you, if not by flatting you let him spew with any bluffs.

Like I say, I probably ship turn myself but I certainly don't hate a flat either and I would sometimes flat depending on the player.

+1 to WereBeer

Also continues to raise the issue about checking behind on the flop. Last few years most flop bets get called by the widest of hands (CBets in particular but something like a steal attempt [like here]). So increasing the pot size makes turn and river play pretty close to automatic without really "pushing" your opponents.

So here I am afraid on the turn because I didn't bet on the flop. Reminded again how I should have a plan from the beginning!

We all agree to call PF for value (66 may hold up in a small pot) but mostly to setmine.

Flop a set on the button and it gets checked to us. ESPECIALLY with a UTG caller in the hand, we bet. We also bet because it may seem like a steal situation to better players. We also bet because it may look like a protection bet (TP) that may lose equity on the turn with a lot of turn cards. SOOOOOO, a bet is likely to get called at least in one place.

You do the math. Assuming everyone has you covered (we don't know; it is implied)::

Assume a ½ pot flop, ½ pot turn.

How many calls on the flop get "a lot" of your stack in the middle on your turn ½ pot bets? "A LOT" means your river bet may be trivially small...small enough that most villain's are priced in to making the crying call.

(Also do other calculations with stack sizes v bet sizes)


EDIT: Always remember!!! You flopped a friggin set. On the flop you will almost 100% want to play for stacks, right?

Everyone had me covered. Yes I want to play for stacks! Thanks for pointing out (yet again) how we want to be aggressive and level our made hands with some good draws and occasionally barrel bluffs. Not slowplay.

...and the math?

Using half pot sized bets, I'd want at least 3 callers to get stacks in without a raise. There's 120 in the pot on the turn and on the river I've got 337 behind and there's 360 in the pot. On that board texture I would normally prefer half-pot sized bets. However, I think it's safe to say few people in this hand except maybe CO are using bet-sizing for hand-reading purposes. If I used a 2/3 pot size, two people calling is enough: bet 25 on the flop and 80 on the turn. Pot on the river is 355 with 312 behind. A 3/4-sized bet doesn't change much in that I still need 2 callers. Pot-sized bets are required for a single caller: bet 40 on the flop and 120 on the turn. Pot on the river is 360 with 257 behind.

Interesting exercise. I did similar calculations when I first started playing poker and never went back to it. The fact everyone essentially limped in on a straddle makes the pot sizeable enough on the flop to think about getting stacks in without a raise.

Thought more about V's range here and it's unlikely to have JJ, AJ, or KJ-JTs in it or he'd have raised pre-flop. So he's got 44 (also unlikely) and trips in his range. Maybe going out on a ledge here but that's probably inelastic so likely scenario is I'd have used a 1/2 pot bet on the flop and bigger on the turn, maybe even 3/4 pot.

I have my moments...