Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Beginners Questions Poker beginner? Ask your (possibly) naive question here and our community will attempt to help you.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-15-2015, 03:16 PM   #1
blank0909
journeyman
 
blank0909's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
15 outs Flop to river %?

Hello,

Why is it 54.1%?
Rule of 2,4 is multiply outs by 4 which is 60.
http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/pot-odds/
blank0909 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2015, 03:19 PM   #2
gamma001
Pooh-Bah
 
gamma001's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,145
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

The rule of 2 and 4 is an approximation. it works well when you have a small number of outs but over estimates when the number of outs becomes larger
gamma001 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2015, 03:33 PM   #3
blank0909
journeyman
 
blank0909's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Then which calculation would I need to do in order to correctly find out my odds %?
blank0909 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2015, 03:40 PM   #4
sixfour
should be called sevenfour
 
sixfour's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Tungsten Analysis
Posts: 67,947
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

It's off because it's a rough approximation, which becomes less accurate the more outs you get. If you want excessive accuracy use twodimes or any similar calculator
sixfour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2015, 03:50 PM   #5
Aces123123
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 772
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blank0909 View Post
Then which calculation would I need to do in order to correctly find out my odds %?
With 15 outs you have 1-(32/47 * 31/46) to hit .
Aces123123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2015, 01:51 AM   #6
blank0909
journeyman
 
blank0909's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces123123 View Post
With 15 outs you have 1-(32/47 * 31/46) to hit .
Hi,
I've been losing player since 2011 and I'd like to approach the game differently, plugging majors leaks and learn again.
I don't quite understand the above calculation because I'm poor with numbers. Can you explain the above calculation more in details?

I appreciate your help a lot.


Thanks
blank0909 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2015, 03:24 AM   #7
sixfour
should be called sevenfour
 
sixfour's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Tungsten Analysis
Posts: 67,947
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

The bracketed bit is the chance of missing twice.
sixfour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2015, 04:04 AM   #8
Aces123123
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 772
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blank0909 View Post
I don't quite understand the above calculation because I'm poor with numbers. Can you explain the above calculation more in details?
Sure. If you have 15 outs on the flop the chance to hit on the turn is 15/47. About 0,33 that would be 33%. The reason it isn't 15/52 is that you have seen two cards in your hand and there are 3 cards on the flop.

To find out your outs for hitting on the turn or on the river we have to calculate your odds of not hitting by the river : 32/47 * 31/46

If you didn't miss by the river, it means that you must have hit on the turn or on the river. So we just subtract the chance of not hitting by the river from 1 to get the chance of hitting by the river. 1-(32/47 * 31/46)

If you find it hard doing these kind of calculations just memorize the most common situations.
Aces123123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2015, 07:28 AM   #9
blank0909
journeyman
 
blank0909's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces123123 View Post
Sure. If you have 15 outs on the flop the chance to hit on the turn is 15/47. About 0,33 that would be 33%. The reason it isn't 15/52 is that you have seen two cards in your hand and there are 3 cards on the flop.

To find out your outs for hitting on the turn or on the river we have to calculate your odds of not hitting by the river : 32/47 * 31/46

If you didn't miss by the river, it means that you must have hit on the turn or on the river. So we just subtract the chance of not hitting by the river from 1 to get the chance of hitting by the river. 1-(32/47 * 31/46)

If you find it hard doing these kind of calculations just memorize the most common situations.
thank you for your detailed explanation it helped a lot.
blank0909 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2015, 07:54 AM   #10
answer20
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
answer20's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 7,905
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
Originally Posted by blank0909 View Post
thank you for your detailed explanation it helped a lot.
I think it is very good to understand the basis of all the 'math' associated with poker, but to 'practice' these calculations I think is pushing it a bit too far. A lot of the 'old timers' will remember seeing Barry Greenstein tanking during a tournament ... and he actually was constructing these formulas in his head and slowing down the play greatly.

You should get a poker odds app or play with one online and create situations that you may have questions about or were involved with ... but do it AWAY FROM THE TABLE PLEASE. Once you review these spots a few times you will start to 'automatically' recognize them while you play and 'know' what spot you are involved with.

I may be expanding your definition of 'practice' too much but there are many factors in poker to work with 'on top' of the pure math. Use all of these factors to make your decisions and the more you check these out away from the table the more comfortable you will be at the table.

You may have 15 outs, but how many of them are good? Do/did any of the other opponents in the hand have/need the same outs but folded out?

I know/understand the math (pretty much) but I 'know' I include the live feel/reads into my game more than a lot of players as well and that serves me much better mentally than cranking out specific percentages. Poker is incomplete information and, yes, we are forced to do math assuming we have good data.

Basically what I'm saying (and probably offending some in the process) is that if you are getting all caught up in plus/minus 5% spots when making decisions in poker I think you are pressing too much. These are basically =EV spots that will drain your brain. Are you telling me that if you are getting 2 to 1 you will call when you are 36% favorite but not 29%? ... and you expect yourself to be able to calculate all that during the hand?

Math purists will say 'yes' of course .. over 10,000 hands this will pay off better for you. I may be hugely naive but I do know that my brain will drain if I expected myself to be that specific through an 8 hour session. GL
answer20 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online