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 09-15-2015, 03:16 PM #1 blank0909 journeyman     Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: C:\bracelets Posts: 372 15 outs Flop to river %? Hello, Why is it 54.1%? Rule of 2,4 is multiply outs by 4 which is 60. http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/pot-odds/
 09-15-2015, 03:19 PM #2 gamma001 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 4,145 Re: 15 outs Flop to river %? The rule of 2 and 4 is an approximation. it works well when you have a small number of outs but over estimates when the number of outs becomes larger
 09-15-2015, 03:33 PM #3 blank0909 journeyman     Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: C:\bracelets Posts: 372 Re: 15 outs Flop to river %? Then which calculation would I need to do in order to correctly find out my odds %?
 09-15-2015, 03:40 PM #4 sixfour should be called sevenfour     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Tungsten Analysis Posts: 67,947 Re: 15 outs Flop to river %? It's off because it's a rough approximation, which becomes less accurate the more outs you get. If you want excessive accuracy use twodimes or any similar calculator
09-15-2015, 03:50 PM   #5
Aces123123

Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 772
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by blank0909 Then which calculation would I need to do in order to correctly find out my odds %?
With 15 outs you have 1-(32/47 * 31/46) to hit .

09-16-2015, 01:51 AM   #6
blank0909
journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Aces123123 With 15 outs you have 1-(32/47 * 31/46) to hit .
Hi,
I've been losing player since 2011 and I'd like to approach the game differently, plugging majors leaks and learn again.
I don't quite understand the above calculation because I'm poor with numbers. Can you explain the above calculation more in details?

I appreciate your help a lot.

Thanks

 09-16-2015, 03:24 AM #7 sixfour should be called sevenfour     Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Tungsten Analysis Posts: 67,947 Re: 15 outs Flop to river %? The bracketed bit is the chance of missing twice.
09-16-2015, 04:04 AM   #8
Aces123123

Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 772
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by blank0909 I don't quite understand the above calculation because I'm poor with numbers. Can you explain the above calculation more in details?
Sure. If you have 15 outs on the flop the chance to hit on the turn is 15/47. About 0,33 that would be 33%. The reason it isn't 15/52 is that you have seen two cards in your hand and there are 3 cards on the flop.

To find out your outs for hitting on the turn or on the river we have to calculate your odds of not hitting by the river : 32/47 * 31/46

If you didn't miss by the river, it means that you must have hit on the turn or on the river. So we just subtract the chance of not hitting by the river from 1 to get the chance of hitting by the river. 1-(32/47 * 31/46)

If you find it hard doing these kind of calculations just memorize the most common situations.

09-18-2015, 07:28 AM   #9
blank0909
journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: C:\bracelets
Posts: 372
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Aces123123 Sure. If you have 15 outs on the flop the chance to hit on the turn is 15/47. About 0,33 that would be 33%. The reason it isn't 15/52 is that you have seen two cards in your hand and there are 3 cards on the flop. To find out your outs for hitting on the turn or on the river we have to calculate your odds of not hitting by the river : 32/47 * 31/46 If you didn't miss by the river, it means that you must have hit on the turn or on the river. So we just subtract the chance of not hitting by the river from 1 to get the chance of hitting by the river. 1-(32/47 * 31/46) If you find it hard doing these kind of calculations just memorize the most common situations.
thank you for your detailed explanation it helped a lot.

09-18-2015, 07:54 AM   #10
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Corner of Walk/Don't Walk
Posts: 7,905
Re: 15 outs Flop to river %?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by blank0909 thank you for your detailed explanation it helped a lot.
I think it is very good to understand the basis of all the 'math' associated with poker, but to 'practice' these calculations I think is pushing it a bit too far. A lot of the 'old timers' will remember seeing Barry Greenstein tanking during a tournament ... and he actually was constructing these formulas in his head and slowing down the play greatly.

You should get a poker odds app or play with one online and create situations that you may have questions about or were involved with ... but do it AWAY FROM THE TABLE PLEASE. Once you review these spots a few times you will start to 'automatically' recognize them while you play and 'know' what spot you are involved with.

I may be expanding your definition of 'practice' too much but there are many factors in poker to work with 'on top' of the pure math. Use all of these factors to make your decisions and the more you check these out away from the table the more comfortable you will be at the table.

You may have 15 outs, but how many of them are good? Do/did any of the other opponents in the hand have/need the same outs but folded out?

I know/understand the math (pretty much) but I 'know' I include the live feel/reads into my game more than a lot of players as well and that serves me much better mentally than cranking out specific percentages. Poker is incomplete information and, yes, we are forced to do math assuming we have good data.

Basically what I'm saying (and probably offending some in the process) is that if you are getting all caught up in plus/minus 5% spots when making decisions in poker I think you are pressing too much. These are basically =EV spots that will drain your brain. Are you telling me that if you are getting 2 to 1 you will call when you are 36% favorite but not 29%? ... and you expect yourself to be able to calculate all that during the hand?

Math purists will say 'yes' of course .. over 10,000 hands this will pay off better for you. I may be hugely naive but I do know that my brain will drain if I expected myself to be that specific through an 8 hour session. GL

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