I'm just so tired of having all my hard work go to waste when it matters the most.

I'm in early position with QQ and I elect to raise 2.2x.

I get 2 callers and a shove.

I tank for maybe 30-45 seconds really thinking about just folding. I only put in 2BB and even if I'm ahead I still have a 20% chance of losing at the best case scenario right? I have 100BB so why not?

I start thinking about the types of hands this player would do this with, and my gut told me they had 88-10 10..

I just had this sick feeling that I was going to lose. I tried keeping a positive mental attitude but in my heart, I knew the 10 was coming.

I know they say if you can get it in ahead do it, but is it really worth risking your life when you can find better spots?

preflop this was my thoughts when I was tanking.

"I should probably just fold this, no need to create a luck situation when I believe in my ability to build a stack without going all in pre with deeps stacks. But do I really just fold QQ here? What do I think he has? Does AA or KK do this? most likely not, I would expect a 3 bet most of the time. Would AK? at these stakes yes. So then I'd be flipping? Hmmm. What about pocket pairs? ( then my gut rang and said THATS IT! )

So after I decided I put them on 88-10 10 I start thinking..

Is it really worth calling? Is there a need for such a huge swing right now?
If i win the pot I'm for sure set myself up to run super deep, and maybe get first. That's the point right? So I called.


***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (WPN)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 17, 04:16:18 ET 2018
Table 10000 GTD 66 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 18378 ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 29, AF: 1.3, Hands: 46
Seat 2: Player2 ( 2866 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 7, 3B: 8, AF: 1.0, Hands: 54
Seat 3: Player3 ( 20539 ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 30
Seat 4: Hero ( 37153 ) - VPIP: 31, PFR: 21, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 9747
Seat 5: Player5 ( 25530 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 46
Seat 6: Player6 ( 13778 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 8, 3B: 7, AF: 3.0, Hands: 40
Seat 7: Player7 ( 7160 ) - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10
Seat 8: Player8 ( 41699 ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 2.8, Hands: 46
Seat 9: Player9 ( 5500 ) - VPIP: 42, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 5.0, Hands: 33

Player9 posts small blind [200].
Player1 posts big blind [400].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qs Qh ]
Player2 folds
Player3 folds
Hero raises [880]
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Player7 calls [880]
Player8 calls [880]
Player9 folds
Player1 raises [17938]
Hero raises [36233]
Player7 calls [6240]
Player8 folds
Hero wins 18775
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 5d, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
Player1 wins 45236 from main pot
Player1 shows [Ts, Td ]
Hero shows [Qs, Qh ]
Player7 shows [7d, 8d ]

I guess I just appreciate not getting knocked out completely.

This is not 100bb deep, this is 45bb deep, and you wouldn't have made this post if your hand held, so this is just a bad beat post and I want two minutes of my life back

BB is 400 I had 92.5 BB. I understand you mean I was effectively shoving 45BB, but I had 92.5 BB that I could have just held onto without risking half my stack on a possible coinflip.


I'm working on a theory that you really don't need to take these big risks preflop with deep stacks if you know you can chip up without them.

Yes, this is a bad beat post that I wanted to get off my chest, but at the same time, it holds value.

If I held, you're right I probably would not have made this specific post...
but again, don't assume this is just a bad beat post. I'm trying to post at least 1 hand a session with the same theory..

Is it worth taking big stack % risks when you can chip up without them? Even if you know you're ahead pre..
I know this seems like a dumb question but I hear top players talking about not creating luck situations when you are a skilled player.

If you put villains on TT/88 for some reason, then it should be a snap call. You'd have a tough decision with hands like AK or AQs, because you're more likely to be flipping with those. With queens, you're (way) ahead of everything that isn't AA/KK.

So with hands like AK and AQ I should definitely be folding in these spots right?

So you put him on TT before you saw his cards or after? If it was before you saw his hand and you were considering folding then you're never going to win a tournament because you keep folding good spots.

It depends on how bad your opponents are, but I don't mind avoiding flips early in a tourney if I think I can gain more chips in the long run with superior pre- and post-flop skill.
In a vacuum, I almost never fold AKs pre-flop, and AKo is a close, but AQ is a lot easier to get away from. It's significantly weaker, because villain can have AK himself.

Thank you!!! What do you mean by "In a vacuum?"

Yeah I have feelings about what is 'inevitably' going to happen too but after millions of hands I've concluded my feelings are absolutely worthless at predicting the future.

Also we're sub-50bb so QQ is a snap call.

Also stop putting people on specific hands and put then on ranges, like if you think some random does this with 88 but never plays, for example, AK like this, you need your head read.

"I'll definitely get better than an 80/20 spot to chip up this tournament!"

???

This isn't bbv dude, cmon.

Without any other information, such as reads/stats/tells, or knowledge of the tournament situation (such as the buy-in, structure, or bubble/pay-jump situation).

e.g. If someone says "Should I go broke with QQ and 100bb?" the answer in a vacuum is "probably", but with more information like "Villain open jams 100bb UTG and he's the biggest nit in the world and it's the final table bubble of the WSOP Main Event and you're 2nd in chips", the answer is a clear No.

Cliffs: "In a vacuum" means (in the poker context) "absent all other info that could affect your decision".

drop the frustration so it makes things better for you and others. you don't NEED it so badly.

God is the only one who knows the future unless he reveals the future to you. However through observation you can predict whats going to happen with limited accuracy.

through observation we predict our opponent is going to hit a 10 19.2% of the time.
its still limited accuracy though. we could run the simulation 10 times and he could hit it 50% of the time.

Are you saying that somebody ran out 1000000000000 boards to find out that a T hits 19.2% of the time?

I don't know whether someone did that or not. So no I'm not saying someone ran out that many boards to find out that t hits 19.2% of the time.
I do know that someone posted on a website that you will hit trips or better by the river 19.2% of the time. I can either trust what that person wrote or not and use it to make a prediction.

And that person used basic math to get to those results, not observations.