Quote:
Originally Posted by Babarberousse
You don't call an all-in only by looking at your hand strength. You have to look at the whole preflop action, your SPR, and the ICM if you are playing in a tournament.
Thus, I'm not saying AKs is better than QQ. If I have 10bb then I'm often happier to shove with QQ than AKs because I'm more likely to get called by a hand I crush. A big strength of AKs is that you can put a lot of pressure preflop on the others preflop because you will often have at least a flip.
So let me give you an example of why how far away you are from money is so important in tourneys:
I flopped AA in a $100 + $10 buyin deep stack tourney and was few out of money (Maybe 10?) ... There were so many add-ons and rebuys that even bottom cash was double up or close enough ... It was a big tourney.
Slugged for hours to get enough chips to at least cash and hopefully double up and more lol ... Top prize was thousands ... Was in comfortable position to at least min cash or more just by folding till money.
So I have these beautiful Aces in early pos (just after BB) ... so do I shove ... no, I raise enough for everyone to fold except ... except for BB who shoves for more than 80% of my stack. So how is my thinking: he cannot have a better hand, I have position on BB that now doesn't matter ... If I have 100% or more chips (BB stack + SB + ante) I'm sailing into maybe close to Final Table and real money. If I fold I have plenty to cash and possibly more.
Now, if I call and lose, I have about 20% left which is not much 10 out of money (cause that can take a long time) but maybe sufficient ...
What do stats and best hand ranking say? (Most those rankings are only for mild reference and garbage otherwise ... semi decent starting point but ... ) Call fool lol ...
But, I'm thinking, what I need to be sure is more info ... What is this guy in BB likely to shove with? Tight player, even better, cause I'm most likely against AK, KK, QQ and rarely JJ ... he is tight so I dominate I think (BTW 65 suited in different suit than the Aces is the best hand vs AA with 23.1% w/t chance).
So he is tight, stats say call, equity says call, having some chips behind says call, expected value and future expected value all day call. Hand strength table especially says: CALL!!!!!! Call now it says lol ....
ALL WRONG!!!!!!!
I of course call ... he shows KT suited ... One to the his suit cards flops so he has runner runner flush possibly but I hold one of the aces to the suit so his outs to runner runner flush drop to 8. I'm happy I think I'm good ... turn is not his suit so inconsequential I think, so even more happy so the river comes: the bane of my existence that river: by now 10 or so of my Aces lost on the river ... impossible for it to be 11 in a row right? WRONG!!!!
River comes and I loose ... I'm thinking how is this even possible on a board textured like this? He didn't have two pair what the heck ... This is a ridiculous mistake call support, right. Wrong again ...
The guy spikes the only possible river card to give him the win with an inside str to the ten ... and he did runner runner it ...
My remaining stack is enough I think but I'm crippled. One before the money I'm on fumes and effectively all in with AQ and a flopped straight. Do I cash?
NO!!! The guy that puts me allin with what I think is a nut straight shows 74 unsuited (at that) and runner runners a flush and me out of tourney and 1 out of money!
I bubble and the field quickly, in minutes really after hours of slug fest, goes through many blind levels. This means that I, without the mistake like calling with those aces, would have laddered up to real money ...
So all the indicators say call with AA and stats overtime say call as far as expected future earnings is concerned but in my case they were all wrong! Fold was correct! Because tournament poker is a much deeper intellectual game than just statistics or gameplay indicators. When money gets big, folding aces is sometimes surprisingly correct play ...
I would have had no problem making it into money with the stack I had before the Aces call. It was big enough to really do some damage. But the 20% stack, maybe 10xBB, was only good enough for fold or shove.
This decision cost me $110 and possibly 30k or so top prize, but definitely a grand, considering how far I would have gotten just by sitting out and folding.
Loses like that add up if you play enough and can be a difference between being a winning or a losing player! Winning top prize 🏆🏆🏆 dosen't mean crap if you never cash because of chasing it! The money is how we keep the score in this sport ...
May all your cards be live and your pots be Monster!
(Hope this post wasn't too long)