what should our 3-bet bluffing range be versus a player with these numbers - Beginning Poker Questions

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what should our 3-bet bluffing range be versus a player with these numbers

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01-05-2012 , 07:02 AM

grumpy64

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,621

Vp$ip=30
pfr=18
fold to 3-bet =67

By using stove and a little math i have that my value 3-betting range should be 99+/AQ But what hands should we be 3-bet bluffing with?

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01-05-2012 , 07:05 AM

grumpy64

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,621

also villain never folds to a c-bet in a 3-bet pot

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01-05-2012 , 07:25 AM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

Sample size?

Also, if anybody calls your light 3 bet, a Cbet on an unimproved hand looks to me like a pretty dodgy line to take in micro stakes. As you note, at this level, if they are calling 3Bets, they're calling Cbets.

(I'm assuming micro stakes because we are in the beginners forum)

JMO

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01-05-2012 , 08:00 AM

GingerViking

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 528

How many hands is this over?

I would rather have a wider depolarized 3b range against a fish instead of having a polarized 3b range.

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01-05-2012 , 10:55 AM

grumpy64

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,621

356 hands To be clear i'm not just talking about str8 bluffs although i would like to discuss those. I also want to know what hands would go from -evto +ev due to how often he folds. Example say a hand has 42 percent Equity versus his pfr range does the fact that he will fold 67 percent of the time make 3-betting such a hand a +ev play?

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01-05-2012 , 11:22 AM

grumpy64

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,621

another question would be how do i factor in fold equity when deciding the ev of raising a hand?

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01-05-2012 , 12:52 PM

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

If he folds 67% and don't adjust then you can just 3-bet ATC and show a profit.

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01-05-2012 , 01:50 PM

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg

If he folds 67% and don't adjust then you can just 3-bet ATC and show a profit.

this is not really true. depends a bit on openraise size, 3bet size and blind structure but 67% is almost exactly the breakeven frequency for most normal 3bet situations.

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01-05-2012 , 01:54 PM

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

this is not really true. depends a bit on openraise size, 3bet size and blind structure but 67% is almost exactly the breakeven frequency for most normal 3bet situations.

And if I breakeven I still have some equity with my bluff hands when I see the flop. I can just c/f whenever I don't hit the flop and get at least another bet when I hit.

I don't see how ATC wont be profitable here assuming somewhat normal 3-bet sizing.

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01-05-2012 , 02:04 PM

#10

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Define 'hit'.

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01-05-2012 , 02:07 PM

#11

pitapita

Lia Marie Johnson

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 7,089

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

this is not really true. depends a bit on openraise size, 3bet size and blind structure but 67% is almost exactly the breakeven frequency for most normal 3bet situations.

But you still have equity in the pot when he calls. So it is +EV.

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01-05-2012 , 02:12 PM

#12

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Hmm, interesting. At what point then does he not fold enough to make 72o a +EV 3bet?

Let me reword that. We 3bet 72o and expect to breakeven preflop. His flatting range is something like 88-JJ, AQ. We have 19% equity vs this range. We only continue when we flop 2pair+, which happens 5.81% of the time according to flopzilla. So we lose 10bb 95% of the time. Please show working for how we expect to profit.

Last edited by zumby; 01-05-2012 at 02:23 PM.

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01-05-2012 , 02:17 PM

#13

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

Define 'hit'.

most likely 2 pair+.

If I hit a pair with 94o I'm not looking to put much more into the pot.

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01-05-2012 , 02:23 PM

#14

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

Hmm, interesting. At what point then does he not fold enough to make 72s a +EV 3bet?

Don't know, I haven't done the math on it. It also depends on his post-flop skill and if we are IP or OOP. But it us easy to say that since we breakeven on the 3-bet itself and we retain whatever little equity we have when called that ATC is profitable.

It's rather unimportant as nobody keeps folding 67% if you 3-bet them 100% of the time. Even the worst player will know that they have to adjust to that.

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01-05-2012 , 02:34 PM

#15

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg

Well one way to approach it would be to use "bet * [1-equity] / bet + pot" rather than the normal "bet / bet + pot" to find a BE frequency. But this seems flawed, as sometimes we will flop the best hand without knowing it. Possibly we could use "bet * [1-%chance of flopping 2pair+] / bet + pot" but I've never seen this referenced before. Interesting way to think about it though!

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01-05-2012 , 02:39 PM

#16

pitapita

Lia Marie Johnson

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 7,089

If he opens to 3bb and he folds 67% of the time to a 3bet, we 3bet to 9bb. We are risking 9bb to win 4.5bb. If we always lose the pot when he doesn't fold we will win (.67)(4.5)-(.33)(9)=0. But sometimes when he doesn't fold we will win the pot so we will win more than 0.

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01-05-2012 , 02:43 PM

#17

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Well, the thing is that it is difficult to make these kind of calculations because it all depends on what amount of your equity you are able to realize.

Obv. we should be able to get more than our share IP and less OOP, so position matters a lot.

The other thing is that there is still plenty of money behind so implied odds are a factor. By that I mean that if I play against a bad player he is more likely to make mistakes that cost him his whole stack whereas I only will lose my stack in a cooler scenario (because his range is face up here). These are all factors you need to take into account when making your calculations.

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01-05-2012 , 03:37 PM

#18

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Sure, there's a ton of metagame, positional advantage, skill advantage, implied odds type stuff that affects how we construct our ranges, but fundamentally it's a bit misleading to state in BQ that 3betting ATC shows a profit vs a 67% fold to 3bet villain.

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01-05-2012 , 03:40 PM

#19

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,675

6Max or FR numbers?

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01-05-2012 , 04:12 PM

#20

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

no, because it will show a profit in vacuum. I don't see how you can argue against that.

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01-05-2012 , 04:34 PM

#21

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Because it's 0ev in a vacuum. Postflop conditions can make it +EV or -EV, which you didn't mention in the original post I quoted.

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01-05-2012 , 04:45 PM

#22

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumby

Because it's 0ev in a vacuum. Postflop conditions can make it +EV or -EV, which you didn't mention in the original post I quoted.

It's never going to be -EV. When we are called we still have equity. Even if we only continue when we flop a boat or better and fold the rest there will be a profit. You can not set up post-flop conditions that make this -EV.

If you break even on your preflop play then you gain all the equity you manage to realize post flop.

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01-05-2012 , 05:00 PM

#23

zumby

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 4,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by A.Ertbjerg

This is getting to be a derail, but it can be -EV if we cbet air vs this guy who never folds to a cbet. That's just one way we could 3bet and have a -EV expectation in this spot. You are right that our 3bet is +EV if we only continue when we flop 50%+ equity vs villains flop continuing range but you did not state this in your original answer.

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01-05-2012 , 05:11 PM

#24

A.Ertbjerg

Heisenbjerg

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 10,770

meh, I think we have kinda been talking around of each other. While we can make losing plays post-flop it should be trivially easy not to do so (that is losing so much that it is more than the equity we have gained).

What I was saying were that if I 3-bet 94o I would show a profit in this scenario. If that is true I would 3-bet 100% and be able to show a profit on every single hand. You may be right that I should have clarified where I expected to win my money (post-flop).