What are the odds of suited connectors flopping either a flush draw or open-ended straight draw
Join Date: Feb 2024
Posts: 1
I'm aware that suited connectors hit a flush draw about 11% of the time, and hit an open-ended straight draw about 10.5% of the time. I've been trying to find a percentage that covers the likelihood of either one (or both) of these draws appearing on the flop. (currently not including double gutshot straight draws)
The difficulty in finding this combined percentage comes from the fact that these straight draw odds and flush draw odds can overlap.
Admittedly, the maths to figure this out is completely above what I can do.
Would anyone know these odds?
should be called sevenfour
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 74,770
Call it 20%, it's close enough. You're looking for pretty specific flops where you get both so seems sensible enough for me to add the two together and just round it down slightly to get a usable ballpark figure
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,343
Flush Draw - 10.94%
OESD - 8.36%
Total - 19.3%
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 24,916
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 10,857
While those numbers seem (mentally) high to me .. results bias for sure .. you need to be aware that the 'odds' for OESD (and even more so the GSSD) do vary from holding to holding.
The easiest example is KQs .. you are drawing to only 16 combos of JT for an OESD.
Whereas for 78s you are drawing to T9, 96 and 65 .. 48 combos. This is why JT and T9 are 'Ace crackers' as they are the highest combo of cards that has 3 above and 3 below to draw to to make the most 5-card 'Showdown' hands.
Don't want to dive too far here, but this should be straight forward to grasp. GL
