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Variance on NL25 Variance on NL25

08-17-2021 , 09:44 PM
Guys I'm currently planning to move up to 25NL soon but I would like to have an better idea about how much variance could impact me on this limit since the win-rate is way lower than 10NL. Then I found this "poker variance calculator" on a site and I found some interesting stats, look



the ''95% confidence'' winnings intervall tells us that your results at 25nl with 4bb/100 win rate and with 35k hands can go as low as -$585usd and as high as +$1285 in 95% of time.(correct me if I miscalculated things)

there's someone here that currently play at NL25 and can check if that info is true? any feedback it would be great.
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08-18-2021 , 04:04 AM
Good players don't experience variance.
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08-18-2021 , 04:04 AM
Seriously, try another area of the forum.
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08-18-2021 , 06:30 AM
Moved from BBV to BQ.
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08-18-2021 , 09:00 AM
Its defintely true. Winning players can go on extended downswings, particularly with lower win rates. 35k is a small sample size to be honest.

Should be mentioned that win rate doesn't effect your variance, thats Standard Deviation. Your win rate is just the mean of the distribution. If you win rate is high enough then maybe you can still be a winner on your worse downswing.
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08-18-2021 , 11:11 AM
I have not checked by hand but the site you got the data from is legit so I don't need to. It has nothing to do with the stake, it's just math.

Something to note is that your win-rate and standard deviation might be different from those numbers though. It takes a long time to figure out your win-rate and standard deviation is not the same for everybody. Not sure which tracker you're using but PT4 has a stat to tell you.
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