variance calculator question - Beginning Poker Questions

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variance calculator question

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06-30-2019 , 10:15 AM

kavvaxio

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 10

For Winrate in BB / 100, I entered 10 and 170 as the standard deviation.

Its saying required bankroll 4329BB which is ~43 buyins

But below its saying worst downswing see brown line highlighted 9238 BB which is ~92 buyins

Wondering if someone can explain why its saying 43 buyins required but in the chart below its saying downswings can be 92 buyins.

So for someone playing full time poker what bankroll would they need to use to not go bust with a 10 BB winrate but to also not play too overrolled either?

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06-30-2019 , 10:21 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,259

It will be estimating the number of buyins that you would need in order to have a <x% risk of busto, it even states it right on your screenshot. There is always some risk of busto no matter how good you are, that 92 buyin downswing will be one of the 5% of going busto

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06-30-2019 , 10:29 AM

kavvaxio

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 10

So a full time player with no other income would be playing well underolled using 43 buyins, and would probably needto use way over 93 buyins?

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06-30-2019 , 10:32 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,259

All it is saying is that if you have the made up win rate you shoved in that you need that number of buyins to have just a 5% risk of busto, what any player considers underrolled is pure personal opinion. Said calculators also usually assume you don't drop down if you run bad

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06-30-2019 , 10:54 AM

kavvaxio

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 10

Wouldn't ~100 buyins guarantee mathematically that the player doesn't go busto since 93 is the most buyins the player could lose according to the varaince calculator as long as the payer does have a 10 BB winrate?

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06-30-2019 , 11:01 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,259

No it wouldn't, that is just a limited amount of trials and happens to be the worst one. There is ALWAYS a chance of going busto, your BRM strategy will just vary dependent on how large you wish that chance to be

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06-30-2019 , 11:22 AM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,932

Quote:

Originally Posted by kavvaxio

Not sure if you understand what variance and risk of ruin really means.

I would suggest to take several steps back and rethink a fundamental point of poker and probabilities: the chances of losing one coin flip for a buy-in are 50%. The chances for losing two of those in a row is 25% and so on. There’s no magical thing that puts your chances at losing a 93rd buy-in at 0%. It’s just highly unlikely. The variance simulator uses difference confidence intervals and number of trials. But that doesn’t mean a 100 buy-in downswing is impossible. It’s just highly unlikely.

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06-30-2019 , 12:06 PM

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by kavvaxio

Let's say you've lost 99 buy ins and you keep playing. What is the chance you lose the next one after that? Hint, it isn't 0%.

Oh and 1 out of a 1000 people are going to be so soul crushed by poker that they will never return. I mean who has the will to keep playing after losing 92 buy ins at a game they are absolutely totally crushing. If this was live poker it would take like two years and then some more time to actually break even.

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06-30-2019 , 01:54 PM

kavvaxio

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 10

Yeah you guys are right, didn't think of it that way.

Thanks.

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