Why on Earth would you ever not shove river vs this villain w TPGK+

It's not about winning or losing a specific hand, but rather the long term. The question you have to ask yourself is, if river was a brick, and you shove river, would this villain call you? And based on him calling pot sized bets on flop and turn the answer is yes.

100bb against a fish and a 3bet pot pre . I get it in here.

**** happens mate :/



Thats golden though. I fear the c/r and check the river when I have say AA on 558T2r board. I wont in future.

I did not post the hand because I was sour about the results. I want to make sure I had the right idea by getting all the money in.

I just don't understand why you were potting it on every street. Could some one explain?

Villain is a fish, he thinks about betting in binomial terms, TPGK is essentially THE NUTZZZZ against his huge range.

If we have a terribad villain that will call with a lessor hand, then why wouldn't we want to pot it every street?

I remember a year ago I was playing 2/5nl with this super drooler fish that just absolutely LOVED flush draws. I remembered him calling a $500 bet on turn with a baby flush draw on an earlier hand.

So, we are in a hand, effective stacks $1k and I have AJo in the BTN and I raise $25 and he calls.

Flop($50) A T 4
He checks, I bet $40, he raises to $140 I call.

Turn($330) Brick
He checks, I shove all-in for $840 ish and he SNAP calls me.

River($2k) Brick
He shows T9
I win with AJo

that hand is burned into my memory because it is an example of how some fish think. Some fish regard TPGK as the nuts. Some fish think that HAVE TO call a draw because they could win right? Some fish are completely clueless about pot odds, position, ranging, equity, etc.

One of the biggest leaks among some online players is not understanding fish psychology. And as a consequence, they miss out on tons of value when up against a fish.

Agreed. One of the things Blackrain says in his e-book is to sometimes overbet when you have a monster hand vs a station. e.g. you flopped a set and pot it. If villain calls with a pair or a flush draw, and you can often bet twice the pot on the turn and still get called.
I actually see quite a few nit/tags at 2NL that just shove when they flop a set. Naturally I get out of the way when they do that, but they get looked up by all sorts of junk.
There's even one guy on Party (the guy with the most volume, actually) and he just shoves any flop where he has top pair or better. He'd get killed playing 5NL, but wins at 7bb/100 with his redonkulous 2NL strategy.

In my defence, I was distracted by another table here.
Villain was 59/4/2 AF.

PartyGaming - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (UTG+1): $2.20
MP: $1.32
MP+1: $1.95
CO: $1.40
BTN: $2.13
SB: $2.53
BB: $2.61
UTG: $2.19

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has T T

fold, Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.06, fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19, 3 players) K Q 7
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Didn't think it was a good board to cbet on. Maybe I was wrong, I cbet usually but this villain would have called, so no fold equity. I decided not to.

Turn: ($0.19, 3 players) K
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.19, fold, Hero calls $0.19

On the other hand, decided to float this turn bet as I didn't think he had a K or Q or he'd have bet flop. Put him on a PP, probably lower than T, or maybe 7x.

River: ($0.57, 2 players) T
Hero checks, BTN checks

Here was where I was distracted. Briefly thought 'he'll bet, I'll check raise'. Except he didn't
Should stick to ABC with fish like this, with his hand I have a feeling he'd call.

because it's easier for lazy players to press the pot button than think about bet sizing

TT hand - shove river

Ah haveing one of the lower Fullhouses on a 3 Broadway board is usually a good way to lose a lot of money if you check/raise and get 3bet

The question'd be is he putting in a lot of money with AK, KJ or AJ in this spot, usually no.

So it's usually best to got for a bet yourself as he'll check back most non-fh hands that are calling a bet but folding to a shove

When you hit your hand resist the urge to go for the c/r. Just bet strong and fast play your hand. In the TT hand Kx and flushes pay you off but at the same time those hands may check back.

Absolutely don't check/raise that river vs a fish who can have a very weird range for betting that turn. Just pot it. And @Frosty, he's a 2NL fish, he will shove any Kx or AJ here.

@ TDA he's looking like a super-passive player playing a wide range

He's never going to shove

He will call the river max

Look at the Flop, you think he would just check all his Kx ?

On the turn he decided, that after checking twice, that the UTG nor BB have a hand and wanted to take a stab

He gave up after the call

He will never have Kx

Only thing I might agree on would be AJ, still I don't see him bet/3betting nor shoveing that, given as passive as he is

Though I agree that betting the river is the best play, I just don't see him calling a shove often enough, because he will rarely have Kx,

but I guess if he really is that weak he MIGHT call a shove with just AJ and fold all other hands he has

So I guess we have to calculate how many combos will call a shove and how many will call a bet and if we solve that equation we can calculate what's the better line though a guess would be that he'll only call shoves with Kx and AJ and he won't have many Kx while he'll often hold a medium pair 77-JJ and Qx, Jx and Ax that might have hit 2 pair on the river

The passive fish mentality is 'call if hand value > K hi, raise if hand value > two pair', basically from my experience.

Agreed.
Something else I've noticed is that fish seem more likely to pay you off when the board is paired. I guess they think "He can't have a king, because there's two of them out there, so my pair must be good". I've been quite amazed at what fish show up with when I value jam a full house. One looked me up with J2 high!

I shoved the river with quads once and the villain called with J-high. It was like 'sorry son, you're not nanonoko'.

isnt arty like shortstacking 40bb or smth? aren't they like lol whatever I'll call those 15bb on the river against you

Here is another spot I got a question about but he is not a fish... He is a winning player at the Micros(15/11). How should I size the river or should I have checked it back like I did? I felt that if he had a set that I would have heard from him by the river? If he had the flush he would have shoved the river...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.77)
BB ($4.41)
UTG ($3.27)
Hero ($8.67)
UTG+2 ($2.78)
CO ($4.03)
BTN ($5.88)

Dealt to Hero K K

fold, Hero raises to $0.16, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.16, fold, BB calls $0.12

FLOP ($0.50) Q 3 8

BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BTN folds, BB calls $0.50

TURN ($1.50) Q 3 8 7

BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

RIVER ($3.50) Q 3 8 7 4

BB checks, Hero checks

BB shows T T
(Pre 18%, Flop 9.9%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero shows K K
(Pre 82%, Flop 90.1%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero wins $3.33

I think he's almost certainly going to raise either the flop or turn with a set so there's no worries there. If he's a winning player he probably wouldn't call the turn with a flush draw. Bet around $1.7 on the river - villains will often level themselves into calling with Qx here thinking 'lol pot odds'. And don't post results, it will affect people's thinking.

just wanted to say thanks for answering my question.