Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 10,853
I'm not a 'theory' guy but I do like to play on words .. Typically there are 3 reasons to bet ..
1) For Value .. meaning you have more equity in your exact holding than your opponent does in their continuing range .. Worse hands are calling most often. Yes, sometimes an opponent is at the top of their range and raise OR they will take the opportunity to semi-bluff/bluff.
2) As a Bluff .. You don't have a very good holding against the Board, but you do have a range advantage and can get a lot of their range, including better holdings, to fold most often .. or 'often enough' over time.
3) To deny Equity (Semi-bluff) .. Your holding has promise, but needs help. We bet to 'realize' our equity before we improve, which in turn can fold out better holdings now and/or provide value that our opponents wouldn't offer after/when we improve on the next street.
Betting is all about the size against this specific opponent in this exact range v range spot. But you do need to mix things up or your opponents will figure out your patterns eventually. In the same 'range' spot against two different opponents the bet size can vary quite a bit to maximize the effectiveness/goal of the bet.
Pot is 200, how much do you bet for value? How much for thin value or a pure bluff?
Again .. play on words .. but IMO you only bet for 'thin' value on the River while you bet for 'protection' on the Flop and Turn. Essentially they are the same thing where you are betting middle of range hands 'hoping' that other middle of range hands (or below) will continue .. so you pick a size where that will most likely happen and would be profitable over the long haul.
I like that you include both a % and a range consideration in your thoughts. If you are in the bottom 33% of your PF range but your opponent will continue with 90% of theirs, then you are still in a position of thin value depending on how the hand plays out and the bet sizing you use along the way.
Again, I'm a live 'off the wall' thinker. You need to take each street as it's own 'problem' and consider your options based on both what 'will' happen and what 'could' happen when action returns to the opponent.
There are times when I'm probably folding the better 'current' hand, but since I don't want to face the aggression of the next street/bet while holding the bottom of my range it's better long term to just give up now and wait for a better spot. GL