Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
If the bet is small enough to give you odds, or there are enough implied odds and you're likely to get paid, then yes. However, against a large flop bet, the bet size required on the turn, and/or river needs to be very large. You need to be fairly sure you're going to get paid, or if you whiff, that you can bluff the other guy out.
That goes beyond the skills of a "Beginner" player, which is the forum we are in.
Here is an example using an Excel program I wrote:
On the turn, the pot is 10. Hero has a flush draw on the turn and a small pair. His showdown hit probability is assumed to be 20% and he wins 85% of the time if he hits on the river. Villain will call 75% of the time if hero bets the river.
Case 1: Villain makes a pot size turn bet (10). Hero’s turn EV is -4.90. If hero calls, hoping that implied odds gives him a profit with a hit, hero needs to make a river bet of 45
Case 2: Villain make a turn bet of 5 times the pot (50) and hero calls. For +EV, hero needs to make a river bet of 290 with the same villain call frequency. If villain call frequency is lower than 75%, a larger river bet is required.
If villain turn bet was 10 times the pot (100), hero must bet 597 on the river.