Not being a math wiz I have been having trouble doing the proper math while playing on-line. The game play is fast and I never was able to complete a math problem before the time ran out…

I came up with a system that I would like opinions on to see if its ok to use.

The pot odds are easy enough to figure out for me. 4,2 it is pretty simple and for the most part the outs of most situations get memorized. If your drawing you know you have a 31% to hit a strait and about %35 chance to hit a flush.

Ok so the pot is 200, now a 50% call would be 100 cut that in half again and you get your 25% call of 50 and cut that in half and you get 12.5% of 25. to me cutting things in half is easy and fast. So I need to call on a flush draw, a 50 call is 25% I would guestimate around 60-65 would be about 30-35%, So I could make a call as long as it wasn’t any hire 65.

I know that this isn’t exact math but do you think this type of thinking is ok when deciding on making a call.

Keep a calculater next to your desk. I do taxes from home and have a 10 key on my desk makes math really quick and easy. That being said here is my real answer.

Is the pot 200 with a 60-65 bet into it that would make the pot 260 and you are now at 23%. If the pot is 140 and someone bets 60 into it you are now at 30%. The pot is 130 and a 70 bet into it now gives you 35% odds.

Here is the normal betting patterns I see at low limit.

a. Some one bets half the pot which gives you 3 to 1
b. Some one bets the pot which gives you 2 to 1
c. Complete moron bets 50 cents into a $8 pot which makes you grin a lot.
d. Guy next to moron bets $35 into an $8 pot which makes you pissed you need to fold the nfd to a complete idiot.

Quick little way to figure out percentages is to figure out how many outs you have, then multiply that number by 4 (on the flop), or 2.2 (on the turn).

Example:

There is currently 1500 in chips in the pot, you hold A5 of hearts. The flop comes 2 3 9 with the 2 and 9 both hearts. You currently have nine more hearts that will help you for a flush, and three 4s that will help you for a straight.

9+3 = 13 total outs x4 = 52%, on the turn if a blank card comes, the math is the same, except for it's 13x2.2 = 28.6.

The numbers are not exact, but close enough here for quick math.

For the pot odds, either keep a calculator open, and multiply the total pot x percentage to hit hand, and you will have the maximum amount to call which pot odds justify.

I'm not sure of any quick math shortcuts to calculate the pot odds without taking too much time or complicated math, but if you can figure out the required amount of outs, the math should only take 5-15 seconds.

(Total Outs x 4 or 2.2)/100 x Total Pot = Total amount justified by pot odds.

This is not how I understood the 4,2 system. Your outs 13 x 4 = 52% to improve your hand by the river.

If i were to calculate 13 x 2.2 = 28.6% this would represent the next card be it turn or river. If i decide to play a hand with 13 outs wouldn’t I calculate the hand to the river and play accordingly?

Or are we saying the same thing?


i like the calculator idea

n8dawg. You are correct about the 4/2 rule. If you take your outs and multiply by 4 after the flop that is your chance to imporve by the river. If you are on the turn you multiply your outs by 2 to improve on the river.

A few points to consider:

First, the 4/2 rule begins to break down after 8 outs, so that you need to subtract the number of outs over 8 from your total. For example, 13 outs yields 47%, which is 13 X 4 - (13-8).

Second, you can't really use the 4/2 exactly unless you are shoving or calling a shove. Why? Because villain will make you pay a second time to see the river card, which means that your original pot-odds calculation no longer applies.

Third, you really need to take implied odds into account. There's obviously no magic formula to tell you whether a particular villain will pay off if you hit your out, but it should be an extremely important part of your calculation (this is why Brunson prefers straights to flushes--they're harder to read and therefore pay off more often).

The 2/4 rule holds up for me quite well, especially since I rarely find myself drawing to more than 10 outs anyway. If I am ever drawing to more than 10 outs, I simply do not find it that important to reduce the win percentage by a few the points in order to improve accuracy, since the pot will usually justify a call with more than 10 outs anyway. It's only when I have less than 8 outs that I worry about being perfectly precise.

Typically when I am on a draw, I am in a situation where I have an open ended straight draw or a flush draw. One will have 8 outs and the other usually has 9. As to whether to call a bet post flop, based on pot odds, that will depend on the villain and on the position I am in. If I am in early or first position, I will often open bet (semi-bluff) into the pot in order to drive out other players and to hopefully take the pot down. If I am in last position, I will often perform the free card raise (so I get to see river card for free). If I am called or reraised then I will look at pot odds. For example, if the pot has 1500 in it and it is 400 to call, I merely divide and realize I have roughly 3.5:1, or roughly 30%. If my draw has a percentage of hitting greater than 30% then I call. If not, I fold (this is not counting my read on my opponent as to what I think he might have, so I may call when pot odds don't justify if I know he is an habitual raiser or bluffer). An open ended straight has a 30% chance of hitting on either the turn or river (31.5% to be exact), so a call will be close but probably justified in the example above. If the card doesn't hit on the turn, then you will have to reevaluate and decide if it is worth calling another bet in order to see the river. An open ended straight has a 17.4% chance of hitting on the river.

Implied odds are far too complex to calculate when playing No Limit, in my opinion, since the whole concept of implied odds was created in reference to limit (it was introduced in "Hold 'Em Poker" by Sklansky which is a Limit book). In limit you know villian can only make one Big Bet (and then a limited raise), so you can easily surmise the number of Big Bets and adjust your pot odds accordingly. In No Limit, it ain't quite that simple since his bet could be from the size of the Big Blind all the way up to his whole stack. I personally never calculate implied odds in NLHE, so maybe I am missing out. I am a new player, so I would be interested in a simplified way of calculating implied odds. However, I am skeptical of any sure fire method, since the betting in the game is too unpredictable by its very nature, especially when playing against unknown players.

be careful when counting outs... (don't double count your 4h)

9+3 != 13 outs

the only way you can use the 4 rule is if you are going all in on the flop. Otherwise you probably are going to be faced with a turn bet that you are not getting odds to call if you missed on the flop

ok i think this thread is getting outta hand on the 4,2 rule. and pretty dam confusing.

hu? this doesnt make sense to me. i use the rule of 4 to go all in? why the hell would i do that? maybe to give the villian an incorrect play but still. wtf?

anyhow can someone respond to the OP and not the 4,2 rule.

I agree with the OP, this comment makes no sense. Are you saying that good players never count outs and compare % of hitting an out to the EPS? It seems like you're saying to either go all in on the flop or just forget about pot odds.

I think everyone, including me, is mixed up. Let's take a couple of concrete examples to try to work through it.

Example 1

There's 150 in the pot. Both Hero and Villain have 1000 behind.

Hero is in position with 7 6, and he knows for a fact (based on superior hand-reading skills) that villain has A A . The flop is Q 9 T . Hero has 12 outs to beat villain (9 diamonds and 3 8s), otherwise he loses (barring runner-runner).

Villain bets 100.

The pot odds are 2.5:1 (Hero has to put in 100 to win 250). There are no implied odds, since we know for a fact that villain is too smart/conservative to pay off if a diamond or 8 hits. According to the 4/2 rule, Hero has a 44% chance of hitting an out by the river, or 1.3:1 against.

So should Hero bet? No. Why?

Because the odds of hitting an out on the turn are 3:1 against (25%, which is another handy rule--multiply outs by 2 and add 1). If Hero misses the turn, the pot will be 350, and Villain will promptly bet 250 or so. So Hero will again be getting poor odds to call (2.4:1 pot odds, vs. 3:1 against hitting an out on the river). Altogether, this is very negative EV.

Example 2

Exact same situation, but there is 1500 in the pot.

Villain shoves 1000. As before, pot odds are 2.5 to 1 (1000 to win 2500), and as before, there are no implied odds, as Villain has nothing left in his stack.

Should Hero call? Yes. Why?

Because now Hero doesn't have to pay again to see the river card, and he can take advantage of the 4/2 rule. So he's a 1.3:1 dog in a pot where he's hetting 2.5:1. Very positive EV.

This is all fine and dandy if you are sure that your opponent will bet and know how much. In a perfect world, your analysis works, but few of us are psychic. That's why I think implied odds are next to worthless in NLHE, except to get a very general idea of future odds -- a VERY general idea. I think the only time it can be successfully utilized is when you know that if your opponent makes a minimum bet that even that small amount will not give you calling odds. In that case, yeah, implied odds are great.

I suppose a safe way to use implied odds would be to assume a pot sized bet when making your calculations. Again i usually play against morons who will often bet 4 times the pot on a draw, so perhaps calculating implied odds is easier against people who know what they are doing?

In my first example, I don't think it requires psychic ability to figure out that a villain (assuming he's not bluffing) who gives you poor odds to see the turn card will also give you poor odds to see the river card. That will happen 99% of the time. So the only point I am making is that the 4/2 rule doesn't apply when there are stacks behind.

As to implied odds, I've never implied (so to speak) that they are easy (or even possible) to calculate with any precision. But as a practical matter, if you have a 8- or 9-out draw and you require the proper actual odds to bet, you will rarely get the chance. Also as a practical matter, it may turn out that applying the 4/2 rule to the actual pot odds on the flop yields the same decision as comparing the real odds of hitting the turn (and then following with the river if you miss) to a combination of actual and implied pot odds. But IMHO the logic would be incorrect and will lead to incorrect decisions elsewhere.

As an example, suppose stacks are 2000 and the blinds are 10/20. You limp in UTG with 77. A TAG in MP1 raises to 4XBB and it folds back to you. You put his range at 88+, AK. You are a 2.5:1 dog against this range, but the pot odds are only 2.2:1. Should you call? I would argue yes, because 1/8 of the time you hit your set will more than make up for the times that you don't, due to implied odds. How can I be sure of that? Obviously, I can't. But if I'm wrong, then there are relatively few times one could play 77, and this just can't be right.

Cheburashka, I am not doubting your analysis, and I agree with most of it. I am a very new player and am still in the learning phase, so I will not doubt more experienced players who are obviously much more accomplished than myself. All I am saying is that implied odds are very tricky in NLHE. I often find myself simplifying things a bit by just knowing the odds of hitting x # of outs on the turn. I then compare that to the pot odds. I then do the same for the river if I did not hit on the turn. This seems to work OK for me, but obviously is not as optimal as being very good at predicting future bets. I suppose this is why NLHE is and always will be a people game; knowing your opponents, what they hold, and their betting patterns. I don't think these skills can be taught.

Implied odds are generally not expressed precisely in no limit for exactly this reason.

As a more experienced player, I generally view it this way:
Will I get paid more if I make my hand? If no, my implied odds are zero. If yes, I assume the pot is checked to me and how much I would bet. If I'm not sure that I will get paid, I discount the bet (if my normal bet is $100, I'd assume I would win $50 if he'd call half the time).

As for the direct odds - I absolutely hate the concept of using two card odds (turn + river) on a flop when you expect to see another bet on the turn.

And it is totally possible to learn how people play - it all comes down to paying attention at the table (live or online). You really won't ever know for sure, but you can get pretty good at guessing "he's probably on a draw here" and stuff like that. It just takes time.

I'd like to have a couple of opinions. I feel I'm all but leagally dumb at math. So this is a very bad part of my game. I've seen people figure pot odds different ways. I've seen pot percentage vs. % of making hand, tilted donkey shows how to figure the pot size that's needed to justify a call, and I've seen it expressed as odds. I know you need to avoid switching back and forth and comparing odds vs. a percentage. I also know I need to do which is most comfortable for me. I just started using the odds calculator on pokertips.org while online, but this more for live play. So my question is do you guys have a way that you think is easiest or preferred?

for pot odds if i understand correctly you do this:

pot $30 call $10 3:1 3+1=4 1/4=25%

is this right?

blue, yes. Since you are 3:1 on your money, you need at least 3:1 or 25% chance of making your hand in order for a call to be correct. If you are not getting enough on your money to call, then take into account implied odds on future streets which may justify it anyway. IMO, implied odds are much easier to calculate in Limit as compared to no limit where you really need a good read on opponents betting habits (and reads on their hand) in order to obtain any accuracy. Implied odds are really more of an art than science but should be calculated nonetheless. I struggle with them myself due to my inexperience.