Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelvis
First bet the turn.
In the case she isn't completely terrible you can discard overpairs on the river because I don't think most people checkshove that big with them and they also are more likely to bet the turn. Most likely hand is 77 that bets to protect against draws on the flop that doesn't have to on the turn because the full house. It's only 3 combinations though so I don't know if I can find a fold just because that one hand. If she is slightly more terrible she also has 44/66 and if she's completely terrible there are also some overpairs.
It's a live donkament, there must be something you can tell about villain, either the way she plays or her presence at the table. Probably end up giving her credit for a very narrow range and fold but it's close either way.
I thought her statement right after she shoved was somewhat
revealing. False confidence perhaps? I tanked for a minute or two
before making my decision and she remained quiet the whole time, so
not a whole lot to pick up on there.
I agree an overpair is unlikely. I think players at this level
tend to triple-barrel them, so a turn check makes no sense,
river check even less so.
A lot depends on her tendency to raise in the blind with limpers before her.
Some people will play medium-small pairs pretty passively
in the blinds hoping to flop a set. More aggressive players may
opt to raise a hand like 7-7 to force other hands out pre-flop. I don't
peg villain as that type of player though.
What led me to hesitate more was the fact that I bet pretty
big on the river with all those low cards out there and she still
thought she had me beat. That really narrowed her range in my mind.