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Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Straight Flush Draw, counting outs

09-28-2021 , 09:01 PM
Flop is Ten, Nine, and Two of Spades.

Turn is the 7 of Spades.

Hero holds 8 of Spades and a blank.

I can't find the blasted hand but the pot at the turn was like 50 cents (2NLHE), everyone has $2-$3 and hero is last to act.

Villain 1 goes all-in, the Villain 2 also goes all-in.

So the basic question of whether we have the pot odds to call is I think clearly a no. IMO it's pretty obvious we're only going to win if the straight flush comes in.

The more subtle question is this: Is the Jack of Spades an out or is it sitting in a villain's hand?

And let's take the example except move the cards up:
--Hero has 9 of spades and the board is JT8, what are the chances the queen is still available given two micro villains are all-in?
--Hero has 10 of spades and the board is QJ9, what are the chances the king is still available?
--Hero has J of spades and board is KQT, what are the chances the ace is out there? (probably none)

Also while I'm here...playing live I was kind of bummed because I thought the High hand bonuses were a waste of money. But now I'm realizing that without them you're almost never gonna have the pot odds to chase that straight flush and it's no fun folding four to a straight flush. At least the high hand juices the odds a bit.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-28-2021 , 09:35 PM
Your example does not include the pre flop and flop action.
This action is part of the "story being told" by the bets.
All in ALL with two guys both going all in ( with 4 spades on the board) before the action gets to you I am pretty sure your current 10 high flush is Not Good.
You would have a clean out with a 6 of spades for a straight flush but you might be chasing a 1 outter.
With the limited info you put forth as presented I would Fold this spot.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-29-2021 , 01:19 AM
The point I’m driving at, let’s say I’m in a situation where I have pot odds to call if I have 2 outs but not if I have one.

Can I count the high card as still being available?
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-29-2021 , 08:50 AM
Not really your 8 blocks a Jack high flush if the Jack of spades falls on the river
but it does not block a higher flush IF someone aleady holds K and Q of spades.
clean outs are basically remaining cards that give you the nuts.

As you become more experienced your situational awareness should become stronger.
If I see TWO guys risking their entire stack on a board like this ( before the action even comes to me ) I am pretty confident that AT LEAST One of them holds a spade Higher than a 10.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-29-2021 , 10:21 AM
You have 2 outs at most, and possibly none. In most card rooms, you would not win the high hand, because you need to play both your cards to qualify. So if you are trying to figure out if you have the correct odds, you shouldn't be adding in the amount from the bonus (unless, of course, a 1 card straight flush does win).

As to whether you can count on them both being available, there is no real way to know, but you should definitely discount them a little bit, as there is a reasonable chance someone has one. I wouldn't give it a lot of thought because unless a) the hand would qualify, and b) the bonus is significant, I'd never be getting a good enough price to call.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-29-2021 , 10:40 AM
High hands are rarely .. if ever .. worth chasing. You need to be getting 10-20 to 1 Pot Odds (including the HH $$) to make a call solely based on possibly winning. That just doesn't happen in NL poker very often.

One time in thousands of PLO hands I was facing a Turn all-in from a guy who I knew had quads. I had one out to a straight flush and one out to quads of my own and had to call $300. So I could've been on either side of the BBJ which would've been 20k or 40k to me. The 20k offered me 66 to 1 so it was 'worth' the risk of calling the bet with only two outs.

HH promos are designed to draw in 'lottery' type of Players. And that's not a bad thing for the Regs if you can play good solid poker .. but it comes at the expense of more rake. DO NOT change how you play poker due to 'your' holdings and HH possibilities, but be aware of (and take advantage of) Players who do change their play (for the worse) in an effort to chase these promos.

Another time in Vegas I got basically screamed at by a Player when I bet the turn with an OESFD against another flush because I would've made more money hitting the SF than what I made off him on Turn and River. They wanted me to forgo 'standard' value (and save them their chips) in an attempt to hit a 2-outer. GL
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-30-2021 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
The more subtle question is this: Is the Jack of Spades an out or is it sitting in a villain's hand?
Just ask yourself with which spades villains are shoving.
Villain 1 may have Js+ . He's certainly not shoving with a 6s-
If villain 2 reasons this out he certainly does not have the J when he shoves (because if he does he can be sure villain 1 has As,Ks or Qs)
So chances that any villain has the J is about 25% (doscounting a bit becasue some might not shove a J here with 2 people still in the hand and considering previous action)
However, you should also consider that any of the villains may hold KQs which would give them the higher straight flush if the J hits.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
09-30-2021 , 08:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by antialias
However, you should also consider that any of the villains may hold KQs which would give them the higher straight flush if the J hits.
Dang I didn't even think of that!
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
10-06-2021 , 08:37 AM
So I'll be d---ed, literally the first time I went to play after posting this I was involved in a hand where the high hand bonus made the difference.

(Chances are I bungled most the hand but anyhoo...)

I'm button with AK of clubs.
I have $100 and am covered, I raise to $10 and UTG calls.

Flop comes Qc / medium non-club / low non-club
I think I bet $10 and get called again.

Turn is 10c, I now have four to the royal.
I bet $20 and get re-raised to $60. I get excited-nervous thinking about winning the high hand and lose all ability to do math, trololol I tanked for like 2 minutes solely trying to figure out that $1500 divided by 47 is roughly $30. And I'm glad I came home and examined this hand because I thought the high hand, which is about a full paycheck for me, was worth way more. Dividing by 50 doesn't seem like that big a number but umm yah it barely moves the needle on the pot odds even though I'm literally at the minimum buy-in.

But in this one case, it did just happen to move the needle enough. I correctly called. I figured at a minimum I'm up against a pair of queens and I guessed my equity was 9 outs * 2 = 18% + a couple percent from an ace or a king.

Spoiler:
Villain had trips so I had 22.73% equity, I needed 25% to call $40 to win $160 but the high hand pushed it over. And I got lucky, another club showed up so I got my last $20-$25 in and doubled up.

Last edited by garicasha; 10-06-2021 at 08:51 AM.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
10-06-2021 , 09:45 AM
Glad you ran into this spot .. It is exciting in poker to have your blood rush a little bit.

I'm a little confused over the 'divide by 47' part of your post. Pot Odds is calculated in chips v chips .. not the number of unknown cards (which is 46 right now). .

$1500 HH with $60 left in your stack is an 'additional' 25 to 1 against that one out left in the deck. Which in it's self is not the correct pot odds to draw to the high hand (46 to 1). So you can see that while the HH is alluring, even in this case it's not correct to call and try to hit it 'on it's own merit'.

Without shoving you are getting 3 to 1 on your $40 Turn call. That in it's self is plenty (close enough) when you have 2 overs, a gutter and the nut flush draw. You need to think about a Player's range .. not the fact that they actually had a set (not trips) this time around.

Also, think a tad bit differently. You are putting in $40 to win $120, so that gives you 1 to 3 pot odds. Yes, you need to add the 40 into the math to calculate equity (25%). If you listen to any streams the announcers say it both ways and without further explanation it can twist the math a bit.

Also, I guarantee that you got lots of eye rolls from the table when you tanked making this call/shove. While it may have been exciting and new for you, this is an 'auto' spot for a NL cash game, especially with your stack size. Don't worry about any flak that you saw/heard/got from your tablemates.

It's great that you are learning the game at your pace, don't let anyone try to dissuade you from setting your own pace. GL

Last edited by answer20; 10-06-2021 at 09:58 AM.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
10-06-2021 , 03:56 PM
Heh you nailed it. People were getting a little irked that it took me so long.

Yah so the high hand was actually only worth $600 (I couldn't see the TV). And I also did incorrectly count the number of cards still out there. I was pretty sure the EV of calling without high hand was zero, so I figured the EV of the high hand would put it over. $600 / 46 = $13. I can't believe that even with 4 to a flush, 4 to a straight, two overcards, and the occasional $600 jackpot that I was still only winning $13 a trial if this situation came up a million times. Although I guess I am playing short stacked so with no implied odds hitting that nut flush isn't really worth all that much.

I would love to think more about ranges but I'm still baffled by the hands people play and the way they act so it's very difficult for me to do so. IMO I expected his range to be 95% AQ, QQ, the other trips, and maybe 5% of the time a smattering of lower flush draws, middle pair, or possibly some straight draws with the blanks.
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote
10-07-2021 , 12:01 PM
The EV of your call was positive, not zero. A zero EV is break even .. where it wouldn't matter if you called or folded. But remember this is against your opponent's exact hand, not his range of hands.

Here's how it plays out .. based on just calling the $40 raise
1) You win $120 some of the time, 20.556%
2) You win $720 'one time', 2.174%
3) You lose $40 most of the time, 77.27%

120(.20556) + 720 (.02174) - 40(.7727) = $9.41 EV (not $13)

So if you include the 'one time' you hit the HH, this now becomes a +EV call, going from -$3.63 to +$9.41, which is roughly the $13 swing that you calculated above.

As I indicated above, calling to just hit the HH is not correct. But when you add in the other times you win the pot (but not the HH) the overall EV now becomes positive.

If you are only drawing to the HH, then you are -$26.09 EV when you invest the $40.

The HH 'influence' was actually good in this case (and surprised me a bit). The typical mindset that HH/BBJ chasing is 'bad poker' may have less merit than I originally was thinking. Chasing low percentage 'draws' is not good poker, but it can swing your decisions a bit if your BR can handle it. GL
Straight Flush Draw, counting outs Quote

      
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