Hi,

I would like to determine whether my playing for the last week or so has been bad or unlucky. Is there a good software for determining this?

Olli

Do you mean for cash or tournaments? What tracking software are you using?

For tournaments. I'm using PT 3 and the results look horrible so I keep telling myself: "Don't be results oriented" but I would feel a lot better if a software would say to me: "You're not bad, you're just running into loads of bad luck."

EV is irrelevant when figuring out whether you are playing good or not since it only calculates your expected winnings vs a specific hand and not the whole range of hands that you should be putting your opponents on.

It's possible that you are just getting coolered with sets over sets etc in which case EV won't boost your confidence at all because even though you might have had mid set and had villains range crushed, against top set you are drawing extremely thin so it is very -EV play.

Focusing on EV is a bit results orientated. Instead of looking at what you have won you are wanting to look at what you could have/should have won. If you want to feel confident about your play then review your hand historys and critically evaluate yourself. Was X a good play, or was it spew and you are just lucky villain folded? Was Y a good play or did you suck out? Was Z a bad play because you lost, or did you have good equity against his range and just get unlucky?

Evaluating your play and finding you are making correct decisions is great, and if you are making some bad decisions then you have found a few leaks that you can work on fixing.

Check out the software in this thread

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/45...ht=holdem+luck

Even if it might be wrong? It might tell you you haven't run into bad luck when you actually have. Definitively establishing a luck-independent play benchmark over a relatively small sample of hands without some kind of omniscience is tremendously tricky.

Just saying don't treat this kind of analysis as the Holy Grail either way. It can only measure a small subset of your actual luck and a small sample of anything can be misleading.