Greetings.

I recently got my hands on the Grinder's Manual by Peter Clarke. In the book it is repeatedly stressed that a value bet on the flop must be ahead of the villain's flop calling range, not just his opening range, otherwise it's not a value bet. I don't really understand this emphasis as it seems to completely disregard fold equity. My understanding is that there are two kinds of bets (on the flop at least) - value bets and bluff bets. If I have AA, the flop is rainbow 7, 4, 3, villain is a fit or folder and I bet 100%, then my understanding is that it isn't a value bet, since I would be beaten by the set or straight I'd be called by. However, it's not a bluff either, is it? So what am I not getting here?

Appreciated.

If you are not ahead of villains flop calling range, then it is not a value bet. The fact that it is not a value bet does not mean you shouldn’t bet, though. As you point out, fold equity is important, but a value bet, strictly speaking, is a bet you make hoping villain calls because you likely are ahead. If you are relying on fold equity to make the bet profitable, then it is not a value bet. Again, relying on fold equity doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet, but if you do it isn’t actually a value bet.

Value betting is only one reason for betting. You bet also for equity denial. Consider for instance the same flop and you have 88. You want to bet that flop to deny equity to opponents who will fold overcards at some frequency.

Your example would be an obvious bet, but in fact it is a value bet. Sure sets beat you as does 56, but villains calling range also includes all overpairs, 22, 55, and 66, plus a lot of floats with overcards. You are behind 77, 44, 33 (3 combos each; 9 total) and 65s (4 combos) for a total of 13. You are ahead of 88-KK (6 combos each, 36 total), but some of these may be discounted depending on PF action. You also are ahead of 18 combos of lower pairs, so you are ahead of most of his calling range even if he doesn’t have any overcard floats.

I guess I would question why I would bet hoping the villain does a particular action. Why is that a good mentality?

It's not really about "hoping" (even though obviously we "hope" they call when we have the nuts and "hope" they fold when we're bluffing, as humans)...it's about what your bet is accomplishing. Value/bluff is only a split that really exists on the river. On earlier streets, all hands still have equity against each other, so as stremba explained equity denial is another important consideration.

Fwiw, if you bet AA on 743 it's absolutely still a value bet.

I think it is fine to hope that our opponents call us with a weak hand when we are value betting a strong hand. That doesn't cost us anything, unless we experience mental anguish when it doesn't happen. We are simply acknowledging this is one of the fundamental ways to make money playing poker. But we should also aim for general ambivalence towards our opponents actions (in general when playing poker, the more emotionally detached you can be from the game the better), and plan for all contingencies in case something unexpected happens.


Anyway, to get back to the OP, which I think is a great question btw, when we are value betting we want our opponent to be calling with a worse hand most of the time. This is an important consideration, because we want to be careful not to "value bet" hands that will fold out all or most of villains inferior holdings. Not only do we risk value cutting ourselves, but we also lose the opportunity to use these hands as check calls against an aggressive opponent if we are out of position.

Well, there is always an action that villain can take that would be most profitable for you. Why would you not hope villain takes that action? Maybe the way I worded it could have been better though. If you are betting in a situation where you will profit most when villain calls, that’s a value bet. If you are betting in a spot where the bet is only profitable because of fold equity, that is not a value bet.

OP, you are somewhat right here. There is value in getting worse hands to fold when we bet in many instances. That's a more advanced concept in betting. The simpler, more important concept is that when you value, generally you need to be ahead of more than half the hands that call you.

The basic concept is that a value bet must beat something like more than half of what calls the value bet. A bet that gets better hands to fold is generally a bluff, not a value bet.

The more advanced concept is that sometimes we bet for protection and equity denial, in which case our hand is likely the best before we bet, likely behind when we get called, but sometimes ahead when we get called, and often had equity when we get called. Mainly worse hands fold, but they have a chance to be able to win if we check and they hit their cards or are able to bluff us off our hand. For example, when we open UTG and BB calls, on a board of Q22, we will cbet AK. A lot of hands in BB's range have about 25% equity vs us, from J3s, 63s, 98s, and everything in between. These hands will just fold if we bet. So when we bet, we win 100%, vs the 75% equity of the pot we had. That is a win.

It's important to understand both concepts. To illustrate Peter Clark's point:

Say the flop is AsQd5d, we have AcKc UTG vs BB, we bet 33% pot, BB calls. Turn is Jc, we bet 75% pot, BB calls. River is 7d, so now the flush got there. BB checks. We might be ahead of most of villain's range at this point, but if we bet now and get called, most of the hands that call us beat us, so we should just check back.

Poker can get pretty deep in a hurry. Once you feel that you have mastered ABC poker some of the basic concept can get cloudy when you add variables to your thought process.

As others have stated, in order for it to be value you need to be 'ahead' at least in range, if not in actuality. Thin value is when you are only ahead of a small/bottom portion of a range 'that made it this far in the hand .. as played' .. that you can win against at Showdown.

Now introduce bet sizing, which is based on Player profile, Board texture, position and previous action (and remaining stacks). In most cases, the larger the bet means that V calling range of 'made hands' shrinks .. which means you need to be higher up in your range in order to use that bet sizing. One can also suggest that on a wet Board you should bet larger since V calling range includes many more draws that you need 'protection' against. Others will suggest pot control when you may be ahead but 'know' that your opponent's range is never folding when this Board comes out and your stacks are somewhat shallow (or very deep).

Most Players know when they think they are in a 'value' spot, what most Players need to master is maximizing those spots with their bet sizing based on all the factors in the hand so far. Finding that sweet spot is the crux of long term profit. When you want a fold .. you add a unit to your bet. When you want a call .. you subtract a unit from your optimal bet size for the spot.

Poker always has a 'It depends' ebb and flow to it and you need to make adjustments based on how many tools the Players at your table have and use. It does you no good to 'make a play' when your opponent wont see it .. or care about anything but their own hand and their emotions that go along with it. GL