Hey guys, played this hand earlier. Was wondering if this shove here is bad or not?

Villain is 33/25/0 with 3bet of 25 over 14 hands(small sample)

BTN: $2.68 (134 bb)
SB: $0.78 (39 bb)
BB: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $2 (100 bb)
MP1: $2 (100 bb)
MP2: $4.81 (240.5 bb)
MP3: $1.82 (91 bb)
CO: $2.03 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5 5
Hero raises to $0.06, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.12, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.27) 5 3 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, MP3 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.67) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, MP3 calls $0.65

River: ($1.97) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.03 and is all-in, MP3 calls $0.85

[/hand_history][/converted_hand]

Thought process:

Pre-Flop: raise pre to show initiative, guy min re-raises so call given implied odds

Flop: BINGO!! bet 80 percent pot to extract max value

Turn: pretty standard bet I think

River: Aaah no, what a bad card AA is definitely in his range but so is KK/QQ maybe AJ,AKs? Could have also flopped a set but highly unlikely, surely he re-raises flop or river if he does. Also if I check and he shoves then its a pretty horrible spot for me to call? Also quite hard to fold given that I've invested quite a bit into the pot?

Was wondering what you guys think? Are you usually check-folding river here or is the shove okay?

I think it is just one of those things that happen. Villain gave you the best of it when he called the turn getting only 2:1 so you were righteous up to then.

Of course the river sets up any ace to beat you and that is a tough spot to be in. You could check the river and call I guess since he will be folding most anything you beat but will never fold anything that beats you. The problem as played is if you check call the river it will have the same result. I think you were OK. I can't check fold the river. It will be interesting to see how many respondents say they can.

Next time don't post your results. It often skews the responses.

Why did you lead flop?

^^

c/r is a much better option.. or c/c and c/r turn but it would be awkward if another club comes

leading would be good if your villain is very passive

otr i would puke in my mouth a bit then shove cause he might turn up with a pair or maybe turn a crappy pair into a bluff(doubt it at 2nl).. wouldnt expect to win too often on that river tho.. AXc is a good portion of his range there

shoving river is awful, you fold out 100% of all hands we beat and only get called by the A or the 6.

If anything, c/c the river, give him a chance to bluff his KT or Q9 type hands.

As played, shoving river is the worse line you can take. Basically, it's like spazzing out, you don't want to be bluffed off a hand so rather than be bluffed you proactively shove...

Next time, its best to just check/call or check/fold these rivers. But shoving in this spot whenever there is a 4-a-straight when the Ace makes the straight is just lighting money on fire. I'd much prefer the shove if you missed the flush draw and are trying to fold out Jx hands. But you have a set and V should have a fair amount of FDs in his range, so c/c is much better.

Lastly, I like the lead out. It's usually best to lead out when we are monster in spots where lesser hands can call. This is a great spot, Jx, FDs, pockets, and even overcards that put us on the FD can call us.

Just sucks river put the bottom wheel out there

I don't like leadingt in spots where we will face a c-bet near 100%. This lets us trap his entire range for at least one bet. Now how I respond (whether check-raise, check-lead, check-check-raise) depends on what dynamic I have with him.

Fair enough,

I can get behind a c/r here since V 3-bet us pre and a c/r by us can look like a semibluff FD.

2nl and villain is looking spewy, I don't think he's thinking in those terms. I do think he's looking at the pretty colours though, so I have no problem with a x/r.

Thanks for the replies so far guys, appreciate it.

I lead the flop because books(crushing the microstakes) and forums helping micro limit players generally all tell you to play your sets very aggressively pretty much all the time. The author of CTM basically says if you flop a set and your first to act then bet, if IP and opponent bets then raise.

Reason for it being that most players at these stakes are not too good therefore they find it hard to fold flush draws, straight draws and top pairs. Considering he min-re raised me he probably has a hand and isn't folding regardless if I bet or not.

FWIW, I would still lead out here.

just sucks board ran out like it did. Otherwise, villain most likely hero calls with AK

similarly, if V has an overpair, he raise/shoves us on the turn anyways and/or calls us on the river regardless of what card hits

Its just a bad run out, Leading out is fine, i prefer the C/C, C/R turn but tricky with the board.
Also river shoving is something i do hate in this spot, only getting called by what beats you...

if it was me i would have made the same play as you but i would have Shoved on the turn! as in that spot you are getting called by alot of PP as it would look like you was flushing! so most PP/flush draw/AJ would call a turn Shove

Betting 3x the pot on the turn doesn't seem like a viable option. Even most bad players can let go of top pair with that massive bet.

The river shove is bad. You're only going to be called by better and an A is quite likely here. I'd probably check, and call a small bet and fold to a large bet.

Whether to check or donk the flop depends on what you know about your opponent's c-betting tendencies. Against unknown c-betting at 2NL, I'd be donking this all day, because of the flush draw and to maximize value from your set. At higher limits, where we could expect villains to c-bet, checking might be better.

I'd probably bet smaller OTT. That 4 increases the danger, so should scare us and might scare villain.

Check-raise flop. If villain calls, shove turn even if it's an overbet. He'll never fold an overpair or TPTK at 2NL.

As played, check-fold river unless villain bets super-small.

I only like donking with a set if it's multiway.

Don't lead against a 3 bettor here, c/r, especially because you get little credit on such a dry board.

Seems like suck out. V was calling pot sized bets with a gut shot.
That's poker.

Those advising to c/r the flop seem to either assume that villain will c-bet or think that giving a free card is OK. Would most agree that if you knew villain would not c-bet, that donking is better than checking? How certain do we need to be that villain will c-bet to make c/r a better line here?

Vil 3-bet pre and the flop is relatively dry. I would assume vil is c-betting a heap here, will definitely c-bet any flush draw and will probably c-bet any hand they would have called a flop donk with.

It's 2NL. Are they really that competent these days?

So they either have something, in which case they will always bet, or they are of the mindset that it is their mission in life to push everyone off hands, in which case they will bet. I can't picture a mindset of a 2NL player that would 3-bet pre then check back a flop. Unless of course we just assume all opponents just randomly mash buttons in which case we may as well open shove and hope to get called (against some vils this may have more merit than is given credit for).

Please correct me if my thinking is wrong here. Thinking out loud.

Let's consider a few general principles:

At 2nl we have to assume that Villians don't bluff. So based on that we assume that Villian has connected with the flop in some way or has a premium hand.

We have to assume that the Villian is unknown as 14 hands is simply too small a sample. 20 hands at an absolute minimum for VPIP/PFR sats.

For me this is a really tough spot as you are doing the right thing by playing your set strongly. It is difficult to put Villian on a range.

At 2nl I don't think you need to worry too much about 'folding out' Villians worse hands. The air hands will fold but Villian will probably call with hands like Jx, KK, QQ, 54, 42, 43,

I think its marginal. At 2nl, I think we should bet the river strongly in these spots. We will win 50% of the time and lose the other 50%.

The general consensus from what I read in BQ is that at 2nl, people don't tend to bluff without monster hands. Therefore, I would expect villain to c bet loads here.

At 2NL and 5NL I don't think it would be all that unusual for a 35/25 fish to 3-bet pre with something like 77+, A9s+, KTs+ QTs+, AJo+, KQo. Only 13% of that range hits this board. Furthermore, I don't think it would be all that unusual for such a villain to play fit or fold.

That's why I said whether we donk should depend on what we know about villain's tendency to c-bet. If we have never seen him bet the flop without having connected, we must donk here. Checking the flop in the hopes of being able to raise villain's c-bet is relying on villain to play conventionally. IMO that's just too uncertain at the μstakes. Now, if you have observations from this game, and this villain in particular that indicate a c-bet here is likely, then sure, go ahead and check. But don't make the mistake of blindly assuming a c-bet is coming.

They aren't "competent" as such. If anything, they c-bet too often imo.