what are the rules to make set mining profitable?

How bigger raise should you mine with etc.

Yeah I'm curious too

The effective stack side has to be at least 20x the raise you have to call, is what I've seen been posted.

I.e. stacks are 100 BB. Villain raises to 3BB.

Here effective stacks are more than 20x the raise size you need to call, so set mine his ass. However if effective stacks are 30BB, this is no longer profitable. I don't think this means you shouldn't ever call at all though - something like 66 still has showdown value, bearing in my villain will miss the flop most times.

If villain is an aggro fish I'd go with 15x effective stacks to set mine though, since there's a higher chance of you taking his stack.

20 seems a bit high. Where did you get that from? I think in general that set-mining vs a pf 3 bettor is profitable at lower stakes. QQ/KK/AA ready to stack off many times as long as flop is all undercards and not ridic texture

I've heard 10-15X quoted. We need a pro in here or some literature

its a about 7.5:1 to make your set on the flop. The thing is you are not going to get his entire stack everytime you set mine and sometimes you are going to get stacked. 3betting will only give you about 10:1 pot odds. which is enough if you stack everytime, but you dont. Also, chances are AA,KK,AK are going to 4bet. I usually hear 15-20. The idea is that you stack him every couple of times and it evens out.

10 is really too small. Remember that you only hit your set 12% of the time. You need to be absolutely sure the guy has aces AND will stack off.
15 is ok IP against an aggressive player. 20 is better.

Setmining is less profitable than people think.

Flopping a set doesn't mean you win the pot, villain still has around 19% equity on the flop with a preflop overpair. Also he isn't going to put a bunch of money in the pot everytime you flop a set.

19%? if they have an overpair when you have a set they have 8% equity.

Example:

A: 8c 8d ,,,, B: Ac Ad ,,,, Flop: 8s Kd 3d

B's equity is about 12.5%

4.5% added for possibility of a runner runner flush? What if the flush pairs the board though? Gotta calculate that lolz but get your point

generally you really play pairs that you think are beat to win by bluffing or maybe showdown if you think its close. and the set mine is the gift if he goes broke to it. not often you you get to bust someone just because they raised and you hit a set. remember when you hit your small set it doesnt help his hand so you are less likely to get any action from him.

overall set mining pays off when in games where the pots are large after the flop. in most games with the preflop raiser or limped pots, the pots are over after the flop and set mining doesnt pay off. you need to play well after the flop and win your share of those folded pots. if you are playing set or fold you arent going to be ahead.

for set mining only you need a player that you know is going to go off big after the flop if he has an overpair and you are able to get it in on the flop before a scare card comes.

To be precise, the 12.5% equity for my example includes all possibilities including hitting the backdoor flush. It was gotten from running Poker Stove.

Do you think then, that pairs are a good play when you are ip (co or btn) with limper(s) ahead of you?

I figure if 3+ others call that pf raise then you are in a GREAT* position if you hit the flop with a set due to being multiway with a nice sized pot at the flop. Players who hit TP-or-Better will pay off a good chunk. If only 2 limpers call then you still have good c-bet opportunity when checked-to, depending on what the flop board and /or turns card is and same if only 1 limper calls.

And many times even when the flop c-bet is called when we hold only a pocket pair we will be able to see turn and river cards for free due to likely check to us on turn, giving us additional ~8% odds of still making our set by river in the event of a called c-bet and subsequent turn card that is bad for double barreling

*caveat being that smaller pocket pairs are much more likely to get sent to Wreckville by bigger sets in pots with 3+ others

4 or 5 others is more on the line to jump in set mining. but look at who is in and then decide. that will determine if you must hit a set to win. you make some straights and even low flushes that can skate in against non aggressive players. thats what tends to make smaller pairs more playable.

dont come in when a raiser is to your left as you are going to have to fold and that really kills your results with the small pairs.

look at stacks and judge realistically who is going to lose what if they hit top pair or have a big pair.

The problem with your example is that it is the best case scenario for the setminer, board is very dry and villain didn't flop a better set.

This is what happens equity wise on average when you flop a set :

Board: 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.113% 80.73% 00.38% 2591937 12249.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 18.887% 18.51% 00.38% 594135 12249.00 { AA }

I feel like it's silly to answer this question with a specific percentage, as it is completely dependent on villain. The more prone he is to stack off, the bigger of a raise that you can call. Usually, this ends up meaning that villain needs 12-15x, but it is bad thought process to just use those same numbers like a computer.

For example, it is much better to set mine when someone opens UTG, and I would be willing to call a larger raise than I would be from say a BU open. Always think of plays as being villain dependent instead of just memorized numbers.

Do you see why you are so wrong here ?

I will just say that the best scenario to set mine is when there are a lot of players in the pot pre-flop

obviously, you are not calling an all-in pre-flop with a low pair

No I don't, why am I soooooooo wrong???

You have given AA 4 chances to outdraw your set.

In normal 3 street holdem when you have a set your villain with an overpair has 2 cards to come.

Villain has an overpair preflop, not on the flop.

You don't have a set preflop ...

Did you notice you talked about what happens when you flop a set ?

Ok, this is not working. Let's try another method :

What's our equity when we hold 55 and flop a set against AA ?

87.63% says propokertools when we flop a set vs villain holding AA as an overpair.

Explain to me why villain only can flop an overpair when we flop a set.