The odds of flopping a set are 7.5-1. So how much would I need to make approximately each time I hit my set to make it worth while?

If I need to call a 3 bet raise to set mine does that mean I must earn at least 7.5 x 3 = 22.5 when I do hit to make this a break even hand?

Check out this blog post. It uses an advanced implied odds model. For the set mining case examined it assumes villain always calls if hero hit its set. However the model can accommodate a villain fold.

https://holdemmathology.tumblr.com/p...t-2-set-mining

Thanks that was exactly what I was looking for.

A 3bet probably isn't what you think it is. It is not a raise to 3 bb.

Yes you need to earn at least around 8 times your call when you setmine, that can also include money that people have put in preflop. This is on average of course, which means for every time you get no action on the flop you need to get 16 times the call on another occasion. Also, for every time you lose with a set you need to make back that amount on another occasion, making it actually pretty difficult to assess when it is a good spot to setmine.

You (and the raiser) need approx. 15x - 20x the amount you need to call the raise behind after you call to profitably set mine.

Sure, it's only 7.5:1 against hitting your set, but...

1. You don't always stack your opponent when you flop a set.
2. Sometimes you flop a set and lose.

set mining works best against bad players who will lose too much on an overpair when beat. and also against people that you can run out if you do miss and conditions fall favorably.

and if your only way to win with a small pair is to set mine than you are probably not good enough yet to try to set mine and should fold most of those little pairs.

You need to make as much or more when you flop a set and win the hand as all the losses you incur by calling preflop and not flopping a set plus flopping a set and losing the hand. No one can tell you how much these add up to because it depends on how you play and how the rest of the table plays.

One general rule of thumb, you prefer passive preflop play and aggressive postflop play from the rest of the table when set mining.

Stat's link is probably gold .. he's rarely off ...

Just to add to small bit ... Some Players will 'rank' their pairs and require less Implied Odds the larger the pair. Say 22-66 needs 20 to 1, 77-99 need 15 to 1 but TT-QQ only need 10 to 1 since they are more 'playable' on their own post-Flop.

You also maybe hit a point without knowing it. When you are in a limp-fest you are getting 'donations' from the other stacks, so your Implied Odds against 'any' stack if it goes HU post-Flop can be less due to the dead money in the middle.

There are also fold equity issues OTF that may require you to shove on wet boards to actually price out some of the draws. Top set has more value than bottom set and Players will play them differently based on the Board and opponent's tendencies.

As with all of poker .. It depends .. But the underlying rule in poker always needs to be 'How and will I get paid?' for the risk I'm taking. If you are up against a Player who folds to aggression they may not pay you off if you c/r Flop, but this also creates stealing opportunities when your set doesn't actually hit as well. GL