Poker is rigged

Haha, no, my flop cbet success at 6max zoom is 47.3%, which is probably why I'm cbetting flop 80%. It works so often that it's really hard to convince myself not to. I think I should be cutting lots of medium strength hands though from my cbetting range to pick up a few bets from the guys who love to bluff atc vs missed cbets.

All numbers in my posts above are about turn cbets. My turn cbet success with larger than half pot bets is 35.6%, which is already a lot closer to yours, so this might be mainly a bet sizing issue for me. (edit: and also, as they are folding more to my flop cbets at nano stakes, I should expect them to have a slightly stronger range when we get to the turn.)

I looked over the few hands where I've been cbetting >75% on turn and it seems I've been very unbalanced with that. This will change from now on. I'll also work on picking my spots better and making sizing larger overall.

I'm back to business guys! Got a lot of re-reading to do, I lost all my sense of poker on holiday

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $5 (100 bb)
SB: $4.17 (83.4 bb)
BB: $3.93 (78.6 bb)
UTG: $5.31 (106.2 bb)
MP: $3.15 (63 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 5 5 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.77) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15

River: ($1.07) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $4.81 and is all-in,

What'd you think guys?

Raise the turn, as played fold river. Consider 3betting pre at 5NL.

^Same, turn bet is small, I'd raise it up.

Turn raise is debatable although probably correct, however raising allows him to play his range very well very easily.

By calling I'm allowing my range to stay as wide as possible (I can probably call close to 100% here) whilst allowing him to spew on the river. People don't bet huge here with the strongest part of their range because I have done nothing to indicate strength and when they have KK, AA they want calls.

QQ & JJ is iffy and 88-TT, AJ+, KQ are very likely to do this.

This is all assuming that he has a reasonably tight UTG opening range which I think an unknown at 5nl this is a fairly true statement, meaning that I am quite happy flatting IP as he's very likely to overvalue his hand postflop. Whereas once again raising just allows him to play pretty well.

Ah right my bad might have uncovered a leak in my game, il look into tomorrow. Il have a look at the series as well. Looks interesting.

I assume you have no reads on villain? I'm actually inclined to call his river bet, since the only legit hands that beat us are QQ, KK and AA (no 5x in his UTG range I assume, right?). And if he had one of those hands, he would not bet turn so small right? At least, that is what I would assume. But since his overbet is so big, my whole 'theory' about why calling is good here might be off.

I played some normal tables today, just to be able to focus more on every decision with less going on. It was actually quite fun! I've almost exclusively played Zoom since I moved to PS 18 months ago and had forgotten what it's like to actually have the same players there all the time and develop reads and history with them. Overall the play also seemed a lot fishier than at zoom.

h1: I'd prefer to never ever take this call-call-fold line, but what else could I do? Villain has a cbet of only 62, turn cbet at 80 (lol sample size, though). Can I fold sooner? By the river all his top pair hands beat me and I think he's valuebetting. Should I call anyway?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $5.46 (VPIP: 20.71, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 143)
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $2.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: $5.00 (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 236)
UTG: $6.04 (VPIP: 64.29, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP: $4.74

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J K

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) 2 9 K
CO bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.87, 2 players) 5
CO bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

River: ($1.97, 2 players) T
CO bets $0.95, fold


h2: The 20% 3bet sample is 3/15, I don't think he's very strong. Can I 4bet? If so, what's the sizing with BTN also in the pot?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $5.00 (VPIP: 27.50, PFR: 22.50, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 43)
BB: $5.00 (VPIP: 13.95, PFR: 13.95, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 45)
Hero (UTG): $5.00
CO: $5.84 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
BTN: $9.58 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BTN calls $0.15, SB raises to $0.60, fold,


h3: Standard Baluga spot without any reads?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $7.71 (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
MP: $5.16 (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 21)
Hero (CO): $5.00
BTN: $5.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: $5.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: $6.37 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) Q 9 5
Hero bets $0.24, BTN calls $0.24

Turn: ($0.85, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $0.62, BTN raises to $1.65, fold

H1 - 3bet pre? I think u can fold river as played

H2 - just fold. Ur sample size is nothing, 4betting would be as a bluff. He can have had 3 good hands in a small sample you know!

H3 - Have to fold imo

h1: I wouldn't fold river. If you think you're beat sooner in the hand, fold sooner.
h2: His 3bet is so big I'd just let it go.
h3: Yep, villains play flopped sets on dry boards like this very often.

Just played a decent session, somewhat ruined by the last hand. Every other table closed, sit out next bb checked.
Fishy donks often TP thought I'd let him value town himself. Was slightly worried about being outkicked, but for 40bb, hardly folding TP are we?
Oh well...

iPoker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $5.69 (VPIP: 48.43, PFR: 29.56, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 163)
Hero (CO): $4.40
BTN: $5.00 (VPIP: 29.32, PFR: 24.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.27, Hands: 140)
SB: $1.60 (VPIP: 17.86, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 31)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has A T

Hero raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, SB calls $0.10, fold

Flop: ($0.40, 3 players) A J 3
SB bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28, fold

Turn: ($0.96, 2 players) 5
SB bets $0.67, Hero calls $0.67

River: ($2.30, 2 players) 5
SB bets $0.53, Hero calls $0.53

Dunna, downswing at NL10 ?

As for rigged -

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $14.63
UTG: $4.88 (VPIP: 44.83, PFR: 3.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
MP: $8.51 (VPIP: 34.88, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 44)
CO: $9.22 (VPIP: 33.93, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 56)
BTN: $14.51 (VPIP: 23.61, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 75)
SB: $10.00 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 14.55, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 113)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has T T

fold, MP calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, fold, Hero raises to $1.20, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.95, 2 players) T 3 4
Hero bets $1.40, BTN calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.75, 2 players) K
Hero bets $2.90, BTN calls $2.90

River: ($11.55, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $6.70, BTN raises to $9.01 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.31

BTN shows J A (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 43%, Flop 3%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows T T (Three of a Kind, Tens) (Pre 57%, Flop 97%, Turn 91%)
BTN wins $28.24

That's some awful sizing. Why are you not aiming to GII over three streets? Missing out on SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much value by doing what you did.

Not too much hopefully. Working nights atm so am playing in the day but pretty tired so just playing 5nl Zoom to get the reload bonus vpps.

Gotta say tho, not doing too great there either, even when ithink inconcentrating properly, but that's why I'm playing low as pretty sure I'm not on my A game with about 4hrs sleep a day

Wait, what ? What should the ideal sizing be ?

That's my way of coping as well when not on my best game, playing a lower limit. You were goona do a video again ? If so, do it at NL10 or NL5 regular table because felt you were much tighter at NL25 than you normally are at NL10.

May do a video over the weekend actually. Would be 10nl as not gonna play 25nl until confident in my game again, no matter what my BR will allow

Ur raise pre should be bigger and go from there to get it all in by the river at least

You want the chips in the middle of the table, your sizing is awful. Why are you not setting it up so your chips end up in the middle?

First of all I'd 3bet bigger, you're just pricing in people to call IP. You need to account for the caller.
cbet a bit bigger otf
cbet a little bigger ott
ohh look I can shove perfectly otr

You've essentially set up a situation where you can never fold to a river raise.

@asriva, find a download of Sweeney's Dynamic Full Ring Poker (don't know what it normally costs but it's published by DailyVariance so paying for it will be ******ed) and read the section on 'Pot Geometry'.

You're right, I totally ignored that we were deepish here. If effective stacks were 100bb, would sizing be fine then ?


I will, thanks TDA.

It's <$10 on kindle on amazon, why not pay for the book and let the author get some proceeds for his excellent work?

graph since August 16

I'm thinking I can go from 2nl to 25nl in less than a month

I paid for the book(obv because I'm not a thief and its 10 bucks)

It seems pretty advanced for micros...

That's fair, I assumed it would be >$500 because it's on DV.

-2BI session. Some hands:

1) Why we should assume unknowns are fish.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $44.41
SB: $44.07 (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 18.03, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 64)
BB: $54.73 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 28.00, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 25)
UTG: $26.02 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
MP: $33.01 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
CO: $25.50 (VPIP: 18.15, PFR: 13.31, 3Bet Preflop: 4.81, Hands: 251)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q 7

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.34, 2 players) 3 8 2
BB checks, Hero bets $0.84, BB calls $0.84

Turn: ($3.02, 2 players) J
BB checks, Hero bets $1.90, BB calls $1.90

River: ($6.82, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets $4.29, BB calls $4.29



2) Pretty proud of this fold tbh.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $25.90 (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 19)
SB: $38.02 (VPIP: 13.21, PFR: 5.66, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 54)
Hero (BB): $50.50
UTG: $63.59 (VPIP: 75.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: $2.42 (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 17)
CO: $14.57

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T Q

UTG calls $0.25, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1.25, UTG calls $1.00, SB calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.75, 3 players) 4 5 T
SB checks, Hero bets $2.36, UTG calls $2.36, SB calls $2.36

Turn: ($10.83, 3 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50, SB raises to $20.50, fold, UTG raises to $33.50, SB raises to $34.41 and is all-in, UTG calls $0.91

River: ($87.15, 2 players) 2



3) Against the same villain as H1. One of the more WTF folds I've seen...

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $29.57
SB: $25.00 (VPIP: 25.74, PFR: 22.78, 3Bet Preflop: 11.68, Hands: 737)
BB: $62.07 (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 22)
UTG: $24.30 (VPIP: 9.68, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
MP: $26.18 (VPIP: 16.13, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 31)
CO: $20.76 (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 30)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, SB calls $0.52, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.86, 3 players) A 2 T
SB checks, BB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, fold

Turn: ($4.36, 2 players) A
BB bets $3.00, Hero raises to $9.00, BB raises to $15.00, Hero raises to $27.70 and is all-in, fold



4) This kind of **** tilts the **** out of me. When I feel like I'm getting pretty fat value and I'm behind. Flop xb is very debatable but many villains spazz against a xb on a wet board at 25NL.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $24.09 (VPIP: 35.44, PFR: 22.78, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 81)
SB: $23.78 (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 178)
BB: $68.59 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: $49.29 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (MP): $28.52
CO: $58.86 (VPIP: 14.03, PFR: 8.05, 3Bet Preflop: 0.74, Hands: 392)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q K

fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players) J 9 Q
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) 9
SB checks, Hero bets $1.10, SB calls $1.10

River: ($3.95, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero bets $2.48, SB calls $2.48



5) I'm such a terrible nit (misclicked river ffs).

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $23.90 (VPIP: 17.63, PFR: 14.10, 3Bet Preflop: 6.58, Hands: 320)
BB: $90.70 (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 42)
UTG: $24.65 (VPIP: 17.75, PFR: 11.31, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 177)
MP: $24.01 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 14)
CO: $65.80 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K 6

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.34, 2 players) 5 4 Q
BB checks, Hero bets $0.84, BB calls $0.84

Turn: ($3.02, 2 players) 3
BB bets $1.44, Hero calls $1.44

River: ($5.90, 2 players) T
BB bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00



6) Raised turn because stack sizes and I thought he was good.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $60.98
SB: $12.50 (VPIP: 18.99, PFR: 17.26, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 405)
BB: $18.37 (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG: $103.67 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
MP: $35.19 (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 25.64, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 41)
CO: $31.24

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, SB calls $0.52, fold

Flop: ($1.49, 2 players) 5 7 2
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.49, 2 players) Q
SB bets $0.99, Hero raises to $2.86, SB raises to $11.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $9.02

River: ($25.25, 2 players) 8
Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: ($25.25, 2 players) 4



7) Not sure whether jam or xb turn is better here, but wtf dude.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $26.34
SB: $47.68 (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BB: $33.07 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 22)
UTG: $15.79
MP: $41.55 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: $18.17 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, SB raises to $2.11, fold, Hero raises to $4.64, SB calls $2.53

Flop: ($9.53, 2 players) 2 9 7
SB checks, Hero bets $5.80, SB calls $5.80

Turn: ($21.13, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero bets $15.90 and is all-in, SB calls $15.90

River: ($52.93, 2 players) 4
Players agreed to run it twice.

River #2: ($52.93, 2 players) 9